Predicting the speed of epidemics spreading on networks

Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like processes, there is a need to predict the speed of a particular contagion in a particular network, and to distinguish between nodes that are more likely to become infected sooner or later during an outbreak. Here, we study these quantities using a message-passing approach to derive simple and effective predictions which are validated against epidemic simulations on a variety of real-world networks with good agreement. In addition to individualized predictions for different nodes, we find an overall sudden transition from low density to almost full network saturation as the contagion develops in time. Our theory is developed and explained in the setting of simple contagions on tree-like networks, but we are also able to show how the method extends remarkably well to complex contagions and highly clustered networks

Reconciling the shadow of a subduction signature with rift geochemistry and tectonic environment in Eastern Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica

Basalt-trachyte volcanoes in the Marie Byrd Land (MBL) Cenozoic province lie along the Amundsen Sea coast on the north flank of the West Antarctic rift. Basalts here are characterized by OIB-like geochemistry, restricted ranges of 87Sr/86Sr (0.702535–0.703284) and 143Nd/144Nd (0.512839–0.513008) and a wide range of 206Pb/204Pb (19.357–20.934). Basalts at three MBL volcanoes display two anomalies compared with the above and with all other basalts in West Antarctica. They include 143Nd/144Nd (0.512778–0.512789) values at Mt. Takahe and Mt. Siple that are 2σ lower than other West Antarctic basalts, and Ba/Nb, Ba/La, and Ba/Th values at Mt. Murphy and Mt. Takahe that are 3–8 times higher than normal OIB. Isotope and trace element data do not support crustal and lithospheric mantle contamination, or the presence of residual mantle amphibole or phlogopite as explanations of these anomalies. The apparent coincidence of these anomalies with the site of a pre-Cenozoic convergence zone along the Gondwanaland margin suggests a subduction influence. Major episodes of subduction and granitic plutonism took place in MBL during the Devonian, Permian, and Late Cretaceous. Relicts in the source region, of components from these subducted slabs, provide a credible explanation for the uncoupling of Ba from other large ion lithophile elements (LILE), for its erratic distribution, and for the anomalously low 143Nd/144Nd at Mt. Takahe. The last episode of subduction ended ~ 85 Ma, and was followed by continental break-up, rifting and lithospheric attenuation that produced the West Antarctic rift as we know it today. Thus, the enigmatic geochemical signatures in these three volcanoes seem to have been preserved roughly 61–85 m.y. after subduction ended. New calculations of source melting depth and a new determination of lithospheric thickness suggest that the source of the anomalies resides in a fossil mélange diapir that rose from the Cretaceous subducting slab, became attached to the base of the lithosphere at 80–100 km depth, and remained there during the subsequent plate motion and source remobilization history of this region

Mutual benefits: The lessons learned from a community based participatory research project with unaccompanied asylum-seeking children and foster carers

This paper presents a community based participatory research project, which adopted a photovoice approach with seven unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC) living in foster care in the United Kingdom. The project also included a focus group with six foster carers to explore their perceptions of caring for UASCs. At the end of the focus group we then shared the young people's images from the photovoice project. The purpose of this was to better inform the carers understanding of this group's needs and the reality of their lived experiences, to see if this would have any impact on their perceptions or willingness to offer these children a placement in the future. The young people then developed the photographs into posters, which were shown at community events and exhibited in community spaces during refugee week.Findings from the focus group show that some of these carers had anxieties and held misconceptions around caring for UASCs. This highlights the need for practitioners to engage in open conversations with foster carers, to discuss their perceptions and challenge any misconceptions. Furthermore, the project identified that some of these carers were concerned about being able to meet the cultural needs of the young people. Foster carers also seemed unaware of the available support in place to help with this. Therefore, it would be beneficial for foster care services and practitioners to ensure that carers are fully informed of the support and training available to them to assist in meeting UASCs cultural, religious and linguistic needs. The project also presents important lessons for researchers committed to finding ways to engage UASCs meaningfully in the research process. The action orientated approach of photovoice led to a wide range of public engagement activities, that allowed us to show important aspects of the young people's lived realities growing up in foster care

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https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/1210/thumbnail.jp

Robotic partial nephrectomy for posterior tumors through a retroperitoneal approach offers decreased length of stay compared with the transperitoneal approach: A propensity-matched analysis

INTRODUCTION: We sought to compare surgical outcomes between transperitoneal and retroperitoneal robotic partial nephrectomy (RPN) for posterior tumors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using our multi-institutional RPN database, we reviewed 610 consecutive cases for posterior renal masses treated between 2007 and 2015. Primary outcomes were complications, operative time, length of stay (LOS), surgical margin status, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) preservation. Secondary outcomes were estimated blood loss, warm ischemia time (WIT), disease recurrence, and disease-specific mortality. Due to significant differences in treatment year and tumor size between approaches, retroperitoneal cases were matched 1:4 to transperitoneal cases based on propensity scores using the greedy algorithm. Outcomes were compared between approaches using the chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests. RESULTS: After matching, 296 transperitoneal and 74 retroperitoneal cases were available for analysis, and matched groups were well balanced in terms of treatment year, age, gender, race, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (ASA) score, body mass index, tumor laterality, tumor size, R.E.N.A.L. (radius, exophytic/endophytic properties, nearness of tumor to the collecting system or sinus, anterior/posterior, location relative to polar lines) score, and hilar location. Compared with transperitoneal, the retroperitoneal approach was associated with significantly shorter mean LOS (2.2 vs 2.6 days, p = 0.01), but longer mean WIT (21 vs 19 minutes, p = 0.01). Intraoperative (p = 0.35) and postoperative complications (p = 0.65), operative time (p = 0.93), positive margins (p = 1.0), and latest eGFR preservation (p = 0.25) were not significantly different between approaches. No differences were detected in the other outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Among high-volume surgeons, transperitoneal and retroperitoneal RPN achieved similar outcomes for posterior renal masses, although with slight differences in LOS and WIT. Retroperitoneal RPN may be an effective option for the treatment of certain small posterior renal masses

Application of Edwards' statistical mechanics to high dimensional jammed sphere packings

The isostatic jamming limit of frictionless spherical particles from Edwards' statistical mechanics [Song \emph{et al.}, Nature (London) {\bf 453}, 629 (2008)] is generalized to arbitrary dimension $d$ using a liquid-state description. The asymptotic high-dimensional behavior of the self-consistent relation is obtained by saddle-point evaluation and checked numerically. The resulting random close packing density scaling $\phi\sim d\,2^{-d}$ is consistent with that of other approaches, such as replica theory and density functional theory. The validity of various structural approximations is assessed by comparing with three- to six-dimensional isostatic packings obtained from simulations. These numerical results support a growing accuracy of the theoretical approach with dimension. The approach could thus serve as a starting point to obtain a geometrical understanding of the higher-order correlations present in jammed packings.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Mutual benefits: The lessons learned from a community based participatory research project with unaccompanied asylum-seeking children and foster carers

This paper presents a community based participatory research project, which adopted a photovoice approach with seven unaccompanied asylum-seeking children (UASC) living in foster care in the United Kingdom. The project also included a focus group with six foster carers to explore their perceptions of caring for UASCs. At the end of the focus group we then shared the young people's images from the photovoice project. The purpose of this was to better inform the carers understanding of this group's needs and the reality of their lived experiences, to see if this would have any impact on their perceptions or willingness to offer these children a placement in the future. The young people then developed the photographs into posters, which were shown at community events and exhibited in community spaces during refugee week. Findings from the focus group show that some of these carers had anxieties and held misconceptions around caring for UASCs. This highlights the need for practitioners to engage in open conversations with foster carers, to discuss their perceptions and challenge any misconceptions. Furthermore, the project identified that some of these carers were concerned about being able to meet the cultural needs of the young people. Foster carers also seemed unaware of the available support in place to help with this. Therefore, it would be beneficial for foster care services and practitioners to ensure that carers are fully informed of the support and training available to them to assist in meeting UASCs cultural, religious and linguistic needs. The project also presents important lessons for researchers committed to finding ways to engage UASCs meaningfully in the research process. The action orientated approach of photovoice led to a wide range of public engagement activities, that allowed us to show important aspects of the young people's lived realities growing up in foster care