Report on 1st round of stakeholder engagement, D 1.1.3

This series is based on the work of the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project, funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA).The description of work for Work Package 1 envisages four separate rounds of stakeholder engagement. This report presents the activities undertaken as part of the first round of stakeholder engagements. The activities conducted under Work Package one aimed at engaging with stakeholders at the national and the district level. Community engagement was done by Work Package 3 and will not be covered in this report. The engagement activities were therefore a mix of workshops, inviting a range of stakeholders from the national policy level, as well as stakeholders from the district level which took place in the case study areas: Bangladesh (Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta); Ghana (Volta delta); and in India (GBM and Mahanadi deltas). This synthesis report combines the individual reports produced by country teams for each of the engagement events held in each case study area

Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (∼20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh

Developing socio-ecological scenarios:A participatory process for engaging stakeholders

Deltas are experiencing profound demographic, economic and land use changes and human-induced catchment and climate change. Bangladesh exemplifies these difficulties through multiple climate risks including subsidence/sea-level rise, temperature rise, and changing precipitation patterns, as well as changing management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra catchments. There is a growing population and economy driving numerous more local changes, while dense rural population and poverty remain significant. Identifying appropriate policy and planning responses is extremely difficult in these circumstances. This paper adopts a participatory scenario development process incorporating both socio-economic and biophysical elements across multiple scales and sectors as part of an integrated assessment of ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. Rather than simply downscale global perspectives, the analysis was driven by a large and diverse stakeholder group who met with the researchers over four years as the assessment was designed, implemented and applied. There were four main stages: (A) establish meta-framework for the analysis; (B) develop qualitative scenarios of key trends; (C) translate these scenarios into quantitative form for the integrated assessment model analysis; and (D) a review of the model results, which raises new stakeholder insights (e.g., preferred adaptation and policy responses) and questions. Step D can be repeated leading to an iterative learning loop cycle, and the process can potentially be ongoing. The strong and structured process of stakeholder engagement gave strong local ownership of the scenarios and the wider process. This process can be generalised for widespread application across socio-ecological systems following the same four-stage approach. It demands sustained engagement with stakeholders and hence needs to be linked to a long-term research process. However, it facilitates a more credible foundation for planning especially where there are multiple interacting factors

Choices:Future trade-offs and plausible pathways

Policy development and management of deltas in the Anthropocene involves the consideration of trade-offs and the balancing of positive and negative consequences for delta functions and the societies that rely on them. This assessment outlines policy-driven and spatial trade-offs that dominate the landscape of choice. It highlights examples of such trade-offs using plausible delta futures and the governance choices associated with them. The analysis is based on modelling broad-scale processes and individual adaptive actions. It highlights how policy choices to maximise economic growth can, for example, have unforeseen consequences such as diminished well-being for some populations. Hence the chapter concludes that trade-offs are a crucial governance challenge for future sustainability of deltas

Uptake of climate change adaptation research results in South Asia

Climate Resilience and National Resilience programs focus on formulating the Bangladesh National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for long-term adaptation investments and enhancing the national capacity to integrate climate change adaptation (CCA) in planning, budgeting, and financial tracking process. However, these programs and projects need a system-level quantitative tool to assess the requirement for adaptations at different scales and consequently decide on adaptation financing for these programs and projects. The current project is built on the earlier findings of the DECCMA project to address the above issues, with the target to add the necessary refinement through incorporating the equity, accessibility, adequacy, and gender dimensions to be useful at different scales of adaptation for climate change. The Dynamic Adaptation Model (DAM) is a product that has been developed gradually. It can be applied at different scales that can support the different communities and sectorial agencies/departments to guide local and national planning to adaptations while prioritizing in selecting appropriate options in different programs and projects to ensure the efficient use of available resources. DAM is developed based on strong mathematical formulation supported by field evidence. The model is calibrated and validated using field data to quantify the present-day adaptation need and now is being tested for some of the proposed adaptations in the NAP processes to assess its usefulness at the national level. Moreover, it is the home-grown model; therefore, the required customized version for different communities and agencies is possible through updates in the future with its extension for new areal coverage in collaboration with the developers and the alignment of the recent national initiatives. These are the ongoing processes essential to make it worthwhile for the mainstream national adaptation plan that needs further work

Stakeholder mapping for adaptation in deltas

This series is based on the work of the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA) project, funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA).The DECCMA project aims to develop the understanding and tools needed for sustainable adaptation in deltas. In this context, work package 1 (WP1) primarily aims at devising proper engagement procedures for understanding the capacity of the governance system to support migration and gender-sensitive sustainable adaptation in deltaic environments under changing climate; as well as ensuring that each delta region affords sufficient emphasis on governance and stakeholder engagement. This report focuses on the preparation of stakeholder maps for the four case areas (WT1.1.1)

Social vulnerability to environmental hazards in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, India and Bangladesh

The coastal areas of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta are acknowledged hotspots of environmental and social concerns. This reflects a large, mainly rural population of 56.7 million, which is exposed to a range of natural hazards exacerbated by climate change, sea-level rise and subsidence. There are high levels of poverty and limited social well-being, including poor access to education, health, drinking water, and sanitation facilities. A spatial assessment of social vulnerability can indicate which communities are more susceptible to environmental hazards, while a temporal assessment may indicate how such vulnerability is changing due to development and other drivers. This study provides the first analysis of social vulnerability across the entire coastal delta within Bangladesh and India. It uses consistent and common secondary data at the sub-district level for two time periods: 2001 and 2011. These are used to construct a socio-economic vulnerability index across the region using Principal Component Analysis. Three main conclusions emerge. Firstly, there is a cross-shore social vulnerability gradient across the whole delta, with more vulnerable people living near the coast. Here, the benefits of access to marine fisheries are not apparent. Secondly, non-agricultural development and economic expansion have reduced the vulnerability significantly, showing its benefits. Lastly, despite general positive development trends, shocks due to major cyclone landfall appear to have enhanced vulnerability in the impacted areas. Further comprehensive analysis across the whole delta is recommended to improve our understanding of the common threats and possible solutions

Assessing Vulnerability and Risk to Livelihoods in River Deltas Socio-ecological Systems: Alignment of the GDRI With Global Frameworks’ Indicators

Disasters have significant impacts on the progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the interlinkage between sustainable development and disaster risk reduction is not considered enough in risk assessment tools. A greater alignment with global frameworks would ease the monitoring while increasing the capacity to address data availability issues for indicator-based assessments. To bridge this gap, we use the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI), which is composed of multiple components to assess risks to livelihoods: hazards, vulnerability, and exposure of social-ecological systems. The modular library of indicators of the GDRI has been further aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster and Risk Reduction (SFDRR). To improve the accuracy of the risk assessment, the list of indicators has been weighted and scored through consultation with stakeholders. This research presents the initial results of a multi-hazard risk assessment that encompasses SDG and SFDRR indicators in three Asian river deltas: Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Mekong and Red River. This work aims at better informing risk management and supporting delta-level interventions to influence progress towards sustainability and resilience of river deltas

Climate change, migration and adaptation in deltas Key findings from the DECCMA projet

This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department For International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.Deltas are home to 500 million people worldwide and known as a climate hange “hotspot” – a place where high exposure to climate stresses coincides with high levels of vulnerability. DECCMA has been undertaking research on climate and environmental change, migration and adaptation in three delta ystems: the transboundary Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna megadelta (comprising the Indian Bengal delta, as well as the bulk in Bangladesh), the Mahanadi delta in India, and the Volta in Ghana