De Bucarest à Mexico : évolution des positions africaines en matière de population

L'auteur analyse l'évolution des positions officielles des gouvernements africains sur l'évolution de leur population. Il constate, notamment par l'analyse de la perception de l'effet du taux d'accroissement démographique sur le développement, un lent glissement vers un désir plus grand de maîtriser l'évolution de la population, ce qui est nouveau en Afrique. (Résumé d'auteur

Using questionnaires through an existing administrative system: a new approach to health interview surveys

This paper reviews recent developments in the field of health interview procedures, and their contribution to decentralized health planning. Their importance is reflected in the growing awareness that the perception of health problems by the beneficiaries is an important element in the success or failure of a primary health care (PHC) strategy for disease control and health improvement. The ‘indirect' health interview procedure represents a methodological evolution of the traditional interview approach, by the fact that questionnaires are not administered directly by the investigators or their field staff to the chosen key informants. They are distributed through an existing administrative system and self-administered by the recipients. This reduces the costs of such surveys, and allows large areas to be screened rapidly. The paper describes ongoing research designed to test this approach in seven African countries. Methodological problems and limitations, the most important of which is that it is not appropriate for individual diagnosis, are also discussed. This approach is best used as a screening strategy to identify high risk communities, on which health resources can then be concentrate

A methodology for realistic space launch risk estimation using information-fusion-based metric

In light of the significant changes being observed in the US space industry, in terms of the increase share of commercial launches, the development of inland spaceports, and the emergence of new vehicle designs and propulsion systems, there is need to reassess launch safety. In this paper, several issues related to space launch safety are reviewed, one in particular being the use, as the main the safety metric, of the mean collective risk to the general public, also known as the expectation of casualties. A new, decision level, information-fusion-based metric is proposed, and through a detailed case study, its merit in terms of the quality and quantity of information it generates is illustrated. The need for a new metric is here advocated as a critical first step toward the necessary transition from a risk avoidance philosophy to space launch safety to a risk management philosophy

Application of Systems Modeling Language (SySML) for Cognitive Work Analysis in Systems Engineering Design Process

At present time most system engineers do not have access to cognitive work analysis knowledge or training in terms that they could understand and apply in the system design process. This may lead to specifying systems requirements that do not account for cognitive strengths and limitations of the prospective users. This paper proposes integration of cognitive work demands in the systems engineering process through development of a Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) framework and a Tutorial using Systems Modeling Language (SysML). The CWA framework provides a structured approach for defining, managing, organizing, and modeling cognitive work requirements in systems engineering process

A framework for the assessment and analysis of multi-hazards induced risk resulting from space vehicles operations

With the foreseeable increase in traffic frequency to and from orbit, the safe operation of current and future space vehicles at designated spaceports has become a serious concern. Due to their high explosive energy potential, operating those launch vehicles presents a real risk to: (1) the spaceport infrastructure and personnel, (2) the communities surrounding the spaceport and (3) the flying aircrafts whose routes could be relatively close to spaceport launch and reentry routes. Several computer models aimed at modeling the effects of the different hazards generated by the breakup of such vehicles (e.g., fragmentation of debris, release of toxic gases, propagation of blast waves, etc.) have been developed, and are used to assist in Go-No Go launch decisions. They can simulate a total failure scenario of the vehicle and, estimate a number of casualties to be expected as a result of such failure. However, as all of these models---which can be very elaborate and complex---consider only one specific explosion hazard in their simulations, the decision of whether or not a launch should occur is currently based on the evaluation of several estimates of an expected number of casualties. As such, current practices ignore the complex, nonlinear interactions between the different hazards as well as the interdependencies between the estimates. In this study, we developed a new framework which makes use of information fusion theory, hazards’ dispersion modeling and, geographical statistical analysis and visualization capabilities of geographical information systems to assess the risk generated by the operation of space launch vehicles. A new risk metric, which effectively addresses the lack of a common risk metric with current methods, is also proposed. A case study, based on a proposed spaceport in the state of Oklahoma showed that the estimates we generate through our framework consistently outperform estimates provided by any individual hazard, or by the independent combination of those hazards. Furthermore, the study revealed that using anything else than fusion could provide seriously misleading results, with potentially catastrophic consequences