Age-Related and Gender-Related Increases in Colorectal Cancer Mortality Rates in Brazil Between 1979 and 2015: Projections for Continuing Rises in Disease

Purpose Brazil is the largest country in South America. Although a developing nation, birth rates have been decreasing in the last few decades, while its overall population is undergoing lifestyle changes and ageing significantly. Moreover, Brazil has had increasingly high mortality rates related to colorectal cancer (CRC). Herein, we investigated whether the Brazilian population is exhibiting increasing mortality rates related to colon cancer (CC) or rectal cancer (RC) in recent years. Methods We examined data from the Brazilian Federal Government from 1979 to 2015 to determine whether CRC mortality and the population ageing process may be associated. Results Our mathematical modelling suggests that mortality rates related to CC and RC events in the Brazilian population may increase by 79% and 66% in the next 24 years, respectively. This finding led us to explore the mortality rates for both diseases in the country, and we observed that the highest levels were in the south and southeast regions from the year 2000 onwards. CC events appear to decrease life expectancy among people during their second decade of life in recent years, whereas RC events induced decreases in life expectancy in those aged >30 years. Additionally, both CC and RC events seem to promote significant mortality rates in the male population aged > 60 years and living in the southern states. Conclusion Our dataset suggests that both CC and RC events may lead to a significantly increasing number of deaths in the Brazilian male population in coming years

Multimorbidity-associated emergency hospital admissions: a “screen and link” strategy to improve outcomes for high-risk patients in sub-Saharan Africa: a prospective multicentre cohort study protocol

Background The prevalence of multimorbidity (the presence of two or more chronic health conditions) is rapidly increasing in sub–Saharan Africa. Hospital care pathways that focus on single presenting complaints do not address this pressing problem. This has the potential to precipitate frequent hospital readmissions, increase health system and out-of-pocket expenses, and may lead to premature disability and death. We aim to present a description of inpatient multimorbidity in a multicentre prospective cohort study in Malawi and Tanzania. Primary objectives Clinical: Determine prevalence of multimorbid disease among adult medical admissions and measure patient outcomes. Health Economic: Measure economic costs incurred and changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at 90 days post-admission. Situation analysis: Qualitatively describe pathways of patients with multimorbidity through the health system. Secondary objectives Clinical: Determine hospital readmission free survival and markers of disease control 90 days after admission. Health Economic: Present economic costs from patient and health system perspective, sub-analyse costs and HRQoL according to presence of different diseases. Situation analysis: Understand health literacy related to their own diseases and experience of care for patients with multimorbidity and their caregivers. Methods This is a prospective longitudinal cohort study of adult (≥18 years) acute medical hospital admissions with nested health economic and situation analysis in four hospitals: 1) Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi; 2) Chiradzulu District Hospital, Malawi; 3) Hai District Hospital, Boma Ng’ombe, Tanzania; 4) Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. Follow-up duration will be 90 days from hospital admission. We will use consecutive recruitment within 24 hours of emergency presentation and stratified recruitment across four sites. We will use point-of-care tests to refine estimates of disease pathology. We will conduct qualitative interviews with patients, caregivers, healthcare providers and policymakers; focus group discussions with patients and caregivers, and observations of hospital care pathways

The Burden and Outcomes of Abdominal Pain among Children Presenting to an Emergency Department of a Tertiary Hospital in Tanzania: A Descriptive Cohort Study

Background. Abdominal pain in children can represent benign conditions or life-threatening emergencies. Aetiologies of paediatric abdominal pain vary geographically and have not been studied in acute care settings in East Africa. This study describes the clinical profiles and outcomes of children presenting with undifferentiated abdominal pain to the Emergency Department of Muhimbili National Hospital (ED-MNH). Methods. This was a prospective cohort study of children below 18 years of age presenting to the ED-MNH with abdominal pain. A structured case report form was used to collect data on patients from June to December 2016. Data included demographics, clinical presentation, and mortality. Data were summarised using descriptive statistics. Results. Out of 1855 children who presented to ED-MNH, 184 (9.9%) met inclusion criteria, and all were enrolled. The median age was 3.5 years (IQR: 1.3–7.0 years) and 124 (67.4%) were male. Most (138 [75.0%]) were referred from peripheral hospitals. The most frequent ED providers’ diagnoses were hernia (34 [18.5%]) and intra-abdominal malignancy (19 [10.3%]). From the ED, 37 (20.1%) were discharged home, 83 (45.1%) were admitted to medical wards, and 48 (26.1%) were admitted to surgical wards. 16 (8.7%) underwent an operation. 24-hour, seven-day, and three-month mortality rates were 1.1%, 6.5%, and 14.5%, respectively. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 12.2%. Multivariate analysis showed that age below 5 years, female sex, and haemoglobin less than 10.9 g/dl were significant factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Discussion and Conclusion. Abdominal pain is a common complaint among paediatric patients presenting to the ED-MNH. This presentation was associated with a high admission rate and a high mortality rate. Age below 5 years, female sex, and haemoglobin less than 10.9 g/dl were associated with mortality. Further studies and quality improvement efforts should focus on identifying aetiologies, risk stratification, and appropriate interventions to optimise patients outcomes

A qualitative assessment of stakeholder perspectives on barriers and facilitators to emergency care delays in Northern Tanzania through the Three Delays

Introduction: Emergency conditions cause a significant burden of death and disability, particularly in developing countries. Prehospital and Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are largely nonexistent throughout Tanzania and little is known about the community's barriers to accessing emergency care. The objective of this study was to better understand local community stakeholder perspectives on barriers, facilitators, and potential solutions surrounding emergency care in the Kilimanjaro region through the Three Delays Model framework. Methods: A qualitative assessment of local stakeholders was conducted through semi-structured focus group discussions (FGDs) from February to June 2021 with five separate groups: hospital administrators, emergency hospital workers, police personnel, fire brigade personnel, and community health workers. FGDs were conducted in Kiswahili, audio recorded, and translated to English verbatim. Two research analysts separately coded the first two FGDs using both inductive and deductive thematic analysis. A final codebook was then created to analyze the remaining FGDs. Results: A total of 24 participants were interviewed. Thematic analysis revealed that participants identified significant barriers within the Three Delays Model as well as identified an additional delay centered on community members and first aid provision. Perceived delays in the decision to seek care, the first delay, were financial constraints and the lack of community education on emergency conditions. Limited infrastructure and reduced transportation access were thought to contribute to the second delay. Potential barriers to receiving timely appropriate care, the third delay, included upfront payments required by hospitals and emergency department intake delays. Suggested solutions focused on increasing education and improving communication and infrastructure. Conclusion: The findings outline barriers to accessing emergency care from a stakeholder perspective. These themes can support recommendations for further strengthening of the prehospital and emergency care system. Due to logistical constraints, emergency care workers interviewed were all from one hospital and patients were not included

Machine learning models to predict traumatic brain injury outcomes in Tanzania: Using delays to emergency care as predictors.

Constraints to emergency department resources may prevent the timely provision of care following a patient's arrival to the hospital. In-hospital delays may adversely affect health outcomes, particularly among trauma patients who require prompt management. Prognostic models can help optimize resource allocation thereby reducing in-hospital delays and improving trauma outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive value of delays to emergency care in machine learning based traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognostic models. Our data source was a TBI registry from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre Emergency Department in Moshi, Tanzania. We created twelve unique variables representing delays to emergency care and included them in eight different machine learning based TBI prognostic models that predict in-hospital outcome. Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Inclusion of our twelve time to care variables improved predictability in each of our eight prognostic models. Our Bayesian generalized linear model produced the largest AUC, with a value of 89.5 (95% CI: 88.8, 90.3). Time to care variables were among the most important predictors of in-hospital outcome in our best three performing models. In low-resource settings where delays to care are highly prevalent and contribute to high mortality rates, incorporation of care delays into prediction models that support clinical decision making may benefit both emergency medicine physicians and trauma patients by improving prognostication performance

Cross-Cultural Adaptation and Psychometric Properties of the SF-8 Questionnaire in Tanzanian Swahili for Injury Population

Background: There is a lack of tools to screen for health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in acute injury patients, despite the critical need for having a good understanding of the characteristics of mental health during the rehabilitation process. The SF-8 instrument, a shorter version of the SF-36, is the most widely used patient-based assessment of HRQoL. The aim of this research is to adapt the psychometric properties of the SF-8 to Swahili. Methods: This study is a secondary data analysis of previously collected and psychometric evaluation of the culturally adapted and translated SF-8. A cross-cultural adaptation committee carried out the process of translation to provide validity evidence based on test content. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the internal structure-based evidence. The validity based on relation to other variables (discriminant evidence) was tested using polychoric correlation with PHQ-2 (Patient Health Questionnaire-2). The reliability was tested using Cronbach’s alpha, Omega McDonald, and Composite Reliability. Results: 1434 adults who suffered an acute injury and presented to the emergency department between April 2018 and August 2020 were included in the study. The instrument demonstrated language clarity and domain coherence, showing validity evidence based on test content. The CFA (Confirmatory Factor Analysis) analysis showed good fit indices for both models (one- and two-factor models) of the SF-8. The discriminant evidence showed that SF-8 scores correlate strongly with the PHQ-2 instrument. These results supported the validity evidence in relation to other variables. All analyses of reliability were considered adequate with values above 0.90 for both models of the SF-8. Conclusions: The results show that the SF-8 instrument can provide relevant information about the health-related quality of life of acute injury patients, and allow practitioners to gain a better understanding of mental health, improving the treatment and follow-up of injury patients within Tanzanian culture

Emergency unit capacity in Northern Tanzania: a cross-sectional survey

IntroductionEmergency medicine (EM) is a growing field in Sub-Saharan Africa. Characterising the current capacity of hospitals to provide emergency care is important in identifying gaps and future directions of growth. This study aimed to characterise the ability of emergency units (EU) to provide emergency care in the Kilimanjaro region in Northern Tanzania.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study conducted at 11 hospitals with emergency care capacity in three districts in the Kilimanjaro region of Northern Tanzania assessed in May 2021. An exhaustive sampling approach was used, whereby all hospitals within the three-district area were surveyed. Hospital representatives were surveyed by two EM physicians using the Hospital Emergency Assessment tool developed by the WHO; data were analysed in Excel and STATA.ResultsAll hospitals provided emergency services 24 hours a day. Nine had a designated area for emergency care, four had a core of fixed providers assigned to the EU, two lacked a protocol for systematic triage. For Airway and Breathing interventions, oxygen administration was adequate in 10 hospitals, yet manual airway manoeuvres were only adequate in six and needle decompression in two. For Circulation interventions, fluid administration was adequate in all facilities, yet intraosseous access and external defibrillation were each only available in two. Only one facility had an ECG readily available in the EU and none was able to administer thrombolytic therapy. For trauma interventions, all facilities could immobilise fractures, yet lacked interventions such as cervical spinal immobilisation and pelvic binding. These deficiencies were primarily due to lack of training and resources.ConclusionMost facilities perform systematic triage of emergency patients, though major gaps were found in the diagnosis and treatment of acute coronary syndrome and initial stabilisation manoeuvres of patients with trauma. Resource limitations were primarily due to equipment and training deficiencies. We recommend the development of future interventions in all levels of facilities to improve the level of training