Assessing bite force estimates in extinct mammals and archosaurs using phylogenetic predictions

Bite force is an ecologically important biomechanical performance measure that is informative in inferring the ecology of extinct taxa. However, biomechanical modelling to estimate bite force is associated with some level of uncertainty. Here, I assess the accuracy of bite force estimates in extinct taxa using a Bayesian phylogenetic prediction model. I first fitted a phylogenetic regression model on a training set comprising extant data. The model predicts bite force from body mass and skull width while accounting for differences owing to biting position. The posterior predictive model has a 93% prediction accuracy as evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. I then predicted bite force in 37 species of extinct mammals and archosaurs from the posterior distribution of predictive models, generating posterior predictive distributions of null expectations given body mass, skull width and phylogenetic position. Biomechanically estimated bite forces from the literature fall within the posterior predictive distributions for all except four species of extinct taxa and are thus as accurate as predicted from body size and skull width, given the variation inherent in extant taxa and the amount of time available for variance to accrue. Biomechanical modelling remains a valuable means to estimate bite force in extinct taxa and should be reliably informative of functional performances and serve to provide insights into past ecologies

Estimating bite force in extinct dinosaurs using phylogenetically predicted physiological cross-sectional areas of jaw adductor muscles

I present a Bayesian phylogenetic predictive modelling (PPM) framework that allows the prediction of muscle parameters (physiological cross-sectional area, APhys) in extinct archosaurs from skull width (WSk) and phylogeny. This approach is robust to phylogenetic uncertainty and highly versatile given its ability to base predictions on simple, readily available predictor variables. The PPM presented here has high prediction accuracy (up to 95%), with downstream biomechanical modelling yielding bite force estimates that are in line with previous estimates based on muscle parameters from reconstructed muscles. This approach does not replace muscle reconstructions but one that provides a powerful means to predict APhys from skull geometry and phylogeny to the same level of accuracy as that measured from reconstructed muscles in species for which soft tissue data are unavailable or difficult to obtain

‘Residual diversity estimates’ do not correct for sampling bias in palaeodiversity data

1 It is widely accepted that the fossil record suffers from various sampling biases – diversity signals through time may partly or largely reflect the rock record – and many methods have been devised to deal with this problem. One widely used method, the ‘residual diversity’ method, uses residuals from a modelled relationship between palaeodiversity and sampling (sampling-driven diversity model) as ‘corrected’ diversity estimates, but the unorthodox way in which these residuals are generated presents serious statistical problems; the response and predictor variables are decoupled through independent sorting, rendering the new bivariate relationship meaningless. 2. Here, we use simple simulations to demonstrate the detrimental consequences of independent sorting, through assessing error rates and biases in regression model coefficients. 3. Regression models based on independently sorted data result in unacceptably high rates of incorrect and systematically, directionally biased estimates, when the true parameter values are known. The large number of recent papers that used the method are likely to have produced misleading results and their implications should be reassessed. 4. We note that the ‘residuals’ approach based on the sampling-driven diversity model cannot be used to ‘correct’ for sampling bias, and instead advocate the use of phylogenetic multiple regression models that can include various confounding factors, including sampling bias, while simultaneously accounting for statistical non-independence owing to shared ancestry. Evolutionary dynamics such as speciation are inherently a phylogenetic process, and only an explicitly phylogenetic approach will correctly model this process

Transitions between foot postures are associated with elevated rates of body size evolution in mammals

Terrestrial mammals have evolved various foot postures: flat-footed (plantigrady), tiptoed (digitigrady), and hooved (unguligrady) postures. Although the importance of foot posture on ecology and body size of mammalian species has been widely recognized, its evolutionary trajectory and influence on body size evolution across mammalian phylogeny remain untested. Taking a Bayesian phylogenetic approach combined with a comprehensive dataset of foot postures in 880 extant mammalian species, we investigated the evolutionary history of foot postures and rates of body size evolution, within the same posture and at transitions between postures. Our results show that the common ancestor of mammals was plantigrade, and transitions predominantly occurred only between plantigrady and digitigrady and between digitigrady and unguligrady. At the transitions between plantigrady and digitigrady and between digitigrady and unguligrady, rates of body size evolution are significantly elevated leading to the larger body masses of digitigrade species (∼1 kg) and unguligrade species (∼78 kg) compared with their respective ancestral postures [plantigrady (∼0.75 kg) and digitigrady]. Our results demonstrate the importance of foot postures on mammalian body size evolution and have implications for mammalian body size increase through time. In addition, we highlight a way forward for future studies that seek to integrate morphofunctional and macroevolutionary approaches

Synthesis and photochemical reactivity of caged glutamates with a π-​extended coumarin chromophore as a photolabile protecting group

International audience'Caging' and 'uncaging' bioactive substrates are key techniques in studying a wide variety of biological processes. In the present study, two-types of novel caged glutamates with a two-photon absorption (TPA) core, that is, π-extended coumarin, were synthesized and their photochemical release of glutamate was analyzed. The high yields of glutamate (>92%) were observed in the photolysis of compounds 1 and 10, respectively

Dinosaurs in decline tens of millions of years before their final extinction

Whether dinosaurs were in a long-term decline or whether they were reigning strong right up to their final disappearance at the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction event 66 Mya has been debated for decades with no clear resolution. The dispute has continued unresolved because of a lack of statistical rigor and appropriate evolutionary framework. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we apply a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to model the evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction through time in Mesozoic dinosaurs, properly taking account of previously ignored statistical violations. We find overwhelming support for a long-term decline across all dinosaurs and within all three dinosaurian subclades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha, and Theropoda), where speciation rate slowed down through time and was ultimately exceeded by extinction rate tens of millions of years before the K-Pg boundary. The only exceptions to this general pattern are the morphologically specialized herbivores, the Hadrosauriformes and Ceratopsidae, which show rapid species proliferations throughout the Late Cretaceous instead. Our results highlight that, despite some heterogeneity in speciation dynamics, dinosaurs showed a marked reduction in their ability to replace extinct species with new ones, making them vulnerable to extinction and unable to respond quickly to and recover from the final catastrophic event

Elevated evolutionary rates of biting biomechanics reveal patterns of extraordinary craniodental adaptations in some herbivorous dinosaurs

Adaptation to specialist ecological niches is a key innovation that has contributed to the evolutionary success of many vertebrate clades, underpinning the acquisition of diverse skull morphologies. Dinosaurs, which dominated Mesozoic terrestrial faunas, acquired herbivory multiple times, and evolution of these herbivorous adaptations is linked to drastic changes in dental and craniomandibular functional morphology, yet whether changes in functionally relevant phenotypic traits occurred more rapidly in herbivorous lineages compared to in carnivorous lineages remains largely untested in a statistical phylogenetic framework. Here, we infer rates of phenotypic evolution using phylogenetic variable‐rate models on relative biting edge (tooth row) lengths of 107 dinosaur taxa to test the hypothesis that the acquisition of herbivory is associated with rapid changes in mandibular biomechanics. We find elevated rates of biomechanical evolution in theropods with foreshortened and beaked skulls (Oviraptorosauria, Limusaurus), as well as in ceratopsians and Diplodocus. The presence and position of a reduced tooth row and increased jaw efficiency unite these high‐rate lineages, indicating selection for greater efficiency in biting biomechanics. Large departures from the isometric scaling of these mandibular characteristics helps explain the differences in evolutionary rates in these clades and those of other herbivorous theropods (Therizinosauria, Ornithomimosauria). Additionally, we hypothesize that extreme ontogenetic changes within species lifetimes may be behind some instances of branch‐wise elevated rates. Thus, we show how exceptional rates of biomechanical evolution can reveal signatures of ecological adaptations within dinosaur lineages as well as within‐species ontogenetic sequences

Epidemiology of ASD in Preschool-age Children in Japan

In recent years, it has been reported that the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is increasing, but there are few research reports in Asia equivalent to those in Europe and the United States. Since large-scale epidemiological studies of neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) have not been conducted in Japan, the delay in early detection is conspicuous compared to other countries. Therefore, we started epidemiological studies in a medium-sized city (Hirosaki City) in northern Japan from 2013 to elucidate the prevalence of ASD and have been conducting a 9-year community cohort survey. In 2020, we published an adjusted prevalence of ASD of 3.2% at the age of 5 years, no change in 4-year incidence, and comorbidity of ASD. Since then, we have focused on sleep problems at the age of 5 years and have been studying the estimation of the prevalence of sleep disorders and the relationship with neurological development disorders. In this chapter, in addition to our research results since 2013, we will introduce the screening and support system in the community in Japan