Estimation of the size and structure of the broad line region using Bayesian approach

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the broad line region (BLR) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is important to estimate black hole masses in AGN and study the accretion process. The technique of reverberation mapping (RM) has provided estimates of BLR size for more than 100 AGN now; however, the structure of the BLR has been studied for only a handful number of objects. Towards this, we investigated the geometry of the BLR for a large sample of 57 AGN using archival RM data. We performed systematic modelling of the continuum and emission line light curves using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on Bayesian statistics implemented in PBMAP (Parallel Bayesian code for reverberation - MAPping data) code to constrain BLR geometrical parameters and recover velocity integrated transfer function. We found that the recovered transfer functions have various shapes such as single-peaked, double-peaked, and top-hat suggesting that AGN have very different BLR geometries. Our model lags are in general consistent with that estimated using the conventional cross-correlation methods. The BLR sizes obtained from our modelling approach is related to the luminosity with a slope of 0.583 +/- 0.026 and 0.471 +/- 0.084 based on H beta and H alpha lines, respectively. We found a non-linear response of emission line fluxes to the ionizing optical continuum for 93 per cent objects. The estimated virial factors for the AGN studied in this work range from 0.79 to 4.94 having a mean at 1.78 +/- 1.77 consistent with the values found in the literature

Dust reverberation mapping of Z229-15

We report results of the dust reverberation mapping (DRM) on the Seyfert 1 galaxy Z229-15 at z = 0.0273. Quasi-simultaneous photometric observations for a total of 48 epochs were acquired during the period 2017 July to 2018 December in B, V, J, H and K-s bands. The calculated spectral index (α) between B and V bands for each epoch was used to correct for the accretion disc (AD) component present in the infrared light curves. The observed α ranges between -0.99 and 1.03. Using cross-correlation function analysis we found significant time delays between the optical V and the AD corrected J, H and Ks light curves. The lags in the rest frame of the source are 12.52(-9.55)(+10.00) d (between V and J), 15.63-5.11+5.05 d (between V and H) and 20.36-5.68 +5.82 d (between V and Ks). Given the large error bars, these lags are consistent with each other. However, considering the lag between V and K-s bands to represent the inner edge of the dust torus, the torus in Z229-15 lies at a distance of 0.017 pc from the central ionizing continuum. This is smaller than that expected from the radius luminosity (R-L) relationship known from DRM. Using a constant α = 0.1 to account for the AD component, as is normally done in DRM, the deduced radius (0.025 pc) lies close to the expected R-L relation. However, usage of constant a in DRM is disfavoured as the alpha of the ionizing continuum changes with the flux of the source

Uncertainty-Informed Deep Learning Models Enable High-Confidence Predictions for Digital Histopathology

A model's ability to express its own predictive uncertainty is an essential attribute for maintaining clinical user confidence as computational biomarkers are deployed into real-world medical settings. In the domain of cancer digital histopathology, we describe a novel, clinically-oriented approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) for whole-slide images, estimating uncertainty using dropout and calculating thresholds on training data to establish cutoffs for low- and high-confidence predictions. We train models to identify lung adenocarcinoma vs. squamous cell carcinoma and show that high-confidence predictions outperform predictions without UQ, in both cross-validation and testing on two large external datasets spanning multiple institutions. Our testing strategy closely approximates real-world application, with predictions generated on unsupervised, unannotated slides using predetermined thresholds. Furthermore, we show that UQ thresholding remains reliable in the setting of domain shift, with accurate high-confidence predictions of adenocarcinoma vs. squamous cell carcinoma for out-of-distribution, non-lung cancer cohorts

Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use in early acute respiratory distress syndrome : Insights from the LUNG SAFE study

Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Concerns exist regarding the prevalence and impact of unnecessary oxygen use in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We examined this issue in patients with ARDS enrolled in the Large observational study to UNderstand the Global impact of Severe Acute respiratory FailurE (LUNG SAFE) study. Methods: In this secondary analysis of the LUNG SAFE study, we wished to determine the prevalence and the outcomes associated with hyperoxemia on day 1, sustained hyperoxemia, and excessive oxygen use in patients with early ARDS. Patients who fulfilled criteria of ARDS on day 1 and day 2 of acute hypoxemic respiratory failure were categorized based on the presence of hyperoxemia (PaO2 > 100 mmHg) on day 1, sustained (i.e., present on day 1 and day 2) hyperoxemia, or excessive oxygen use (FIO2 ≥ 0.60 during hyperoxemia). Results: Of 2005 patients that met the inclusion criteria, 131 (6.5%) were hypoxemic (PaO2 < 55 mmHg), 607 (30%) had hyperoxemia on day 1, and 250 (12%) had sustained hyperoxemia. Excess FIO2 use occurred in 400 (66%) out of 607 patients with hyperoxemia. Excess FIO2 use decreased from day 1 to day 2 of ARDS, with most hyperoxemic patients on day 2 receiving relatively low FIO2. Multivariate analyses found no independent relationship between day 1 hyperoxemia, sustained hyperoxemia, or excess FIO2 use and adverse clinical outcomes. Mortality was 42% in patients with excess FIO2 use, compared to 39% in a propensity-matched sample of normoxemic (PaO2 55-100 mmHg) patients (P = 0.47). Conclusions: Hyperoxemia and excess oxygen use are both prevalent in early ARDS but are most often non-sustained. No relationship was found between hyperoxemia or excessive oxygen use and patient outcome in this cohort. Trial registration: LUNG-SAFE is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02010073publishersversionPeer reviewe