The role of migration and demographic change in small island futures

Low-lying atoll islands are especially threatened by anticipated sea-level rise, and migration is often mentioned as a potential response of these island societies. Further, small island states are developing population, economic and adaptation policies to plan the future. Policies, such as raising of islands or land reclamation, require a long-term vision on populations and migration. However, population and migration systems in small island settings are poorly understood. To address this deficiency requires an approach that considers changing environmental and socio-economic factors and individual migration decision-making. This article introduces the conceptual model of migration and explores migration within one small island nation, the Maldives, as an example. Agent-based simulations of internal migration from 1985–2014 are used as a basis to explore a range of potential demographic futures up to 2050. The simulations consider a set of consistent demographic, environmental, policy and international migration narratives, which describe a range of key uncertainties. The capital island Malé has experienced significant population growth over the last decades, growing from around 67,000 to 153,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2014, and comprising about 38 percent of the national population in 2014. In all future narratives, which consider possible demographic, governance, environmental and globalization changes, the growth of Malé continues while many other islands are effectively abandoned. The analysis suggests that migration in the Maldives has a strong inertia, and radical change to the environmental and/or socio-economic drivers would be needed for existing trends to change. Findings from this study may have implications for national development and planning for climate change more widely in island nations

Migration Transforms the Conditions for the Achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

Migration is transformative both for those who move and for the places and economies of source and destination. The global stock of migrants, depending on definition, is approximately 750 million people: to assume that the world is static and that migration is a problem to be managed is inaccurate. Since migration is a major driving force of planetary and population health, we argue that it must be more directly incorporated into planning for sustainable development, with a focus on the extent and way in which the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) incorporate the transformative reality of migration

Linking IPCC AR4 & AR5 frameworks for assessing vulnerability and risk to climate change in the Indian Bengal Delta

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 (Fifth Assessment Report, 2014) conceptual approach and terminology is aligned with a concept of risk which differs from the previous framework (AR4). This study draws links between the AR5 concept of risk with the previous concept of vulnerability (AR4). The most significant difference between the results of the AR4 and AR5 approaches is the change in sub-district level relative rankings. Findings show that Basanti, in the Bengal Delta, is the most vulnerable sub-district using the AR4 approach, whereas Gosaba is found to be highly exposed to risk using the AR5 approach.UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID

Evaluating migration as successful adaptation to climate change: trade-offs in well-being, equity, and sustainability

The role of migration as one potential adaptation to climate change is increasingly recognized, but little is known about whether migration constitutes successful adaptation, under what conditions, and for whom. Based on a review of emerging migration science, we propose that migration is a successful adaptation to climate change if it increases well-being, reduces inequality, and promotes sustainability. Well-being, equity, and sustainability represent entry points for identifying trade-offs within and across different social and temporal scales that could potentially undermine the success of migration as adaptation. We show that assessment of success at various scales requires the incorporation of consequences such as loss of population in migration source areas, climate risk in migration destination, and material and non-material flows and economic synergies between source and destination. These dynamics and evaluation criteria can help make migration visible and tractable to policy as an effective adaptation option

Migration transforms the conditions for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordEconomic and Social Research Council (ESRC

Toward a climate mobilities research agenda: Intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses

Mobility is a key livelihood and risk management strategy, including in the context of climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced long standing concerns that migrant populations remain largely overlooked in economic development, adaptation to climate change, and spatial planning. We synthesize evidence across multiple studies that confirms the overwhelming preponderance of in-country and short distance rather than international migration in climate change hotspots in Asia and Africa. The emerging findings highlight the critical importance of addressing immobility and the intersecting social determinants that influence who can move and who cannot in development policy. This evidence suggests a more focused climate mobilities research agenda that includes understanding multiple drivers of mobility and multi-directional movement; intersecting social factors that determine mobility for some and immobility for others; and the implications for mobility and immobility under climate change and the COVID-19 recovery

Perceived environmental risks and insecurity reduce future migration intentions in hazardous migration source areas

An analysis of perceptions of motivations for prior migration and migration intentions of households in four low-lying coastal areas in Asia and Africa finds that few households identified environmental risks as the primary driver for past migration decisions. The study examined the extent to which specific elements of perceptions of environment might influence migration intention. Social determinants such as larger households, households with ecosystem-based livelihoods, and those with migrant networks report potential future intentions to migrate that are 6%, 14%, and 90%, respectively higher than those that do not show these characteristics

The Migration-Sustainability Paradox: Transformations in Mobile Worlds

Migration represents a major transformation of the lives of those involved and has been transformative of societies and economies globally. Yet models of sustainability transformations do not effectively incorporate the movement of populations. There is an apparent migration-sustainability paradox: migration plays a role as a driver of unsustainability as part of economic globalisation, yet simultaneously represents a transformative phenomenon and potential force for sustainable development. We propose criteria by which migration represents an opportunity for sustainable development: increasing aggregate well-being; reduced inequality leading to diverse social benefits; and reduced aggregate environmental burden. We detail the dimensions of the transformative potential of migration and develop a generic framework for migration-sustainability linkages based on environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability, highlighting identity and social transformation dimensions of migration. Such a model overcomes the apparent paradox by explaining the role of societal mobility in achieving sustainable outcomes