PERBANDINGAN METODE CROSS VALIDATION DAN GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION DALAM REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK BIRESPON SPLINE

Regression analysis is one of the most popular methods in statistics to explain causal relationships between one predictor variables to one response variable. In general, modeling can be done using regression analysis. The regression curve can be assumed by the parametric regression approach and the nonparametric regression approach. However, not all data acquired follows a certain pattern so that this type of data uses a nonparametric regression approach. The nonparametric regression approach is not related to the assumption of the regression curve form as it is to the parametric regression, and more flexible. There are several techniques performed for estimation in nonparametric regression ie Spline. Some cases in the regression analysis found many problems that can not be solved by simple regression analysis of one response because if using two response variables in the research, it must be seen the value of correlation between variables. As a result, regression issues must be solved by the birespon regression model. This study aims to describe the IMR and malnutrition status of children under five and to get the Spline model in the best birespon nonparametric regression through the relationship between the suspected variables by using Cross Validation (CV) and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) methods. The results obtained are the best model that is suitable for health by using CV method, obtained the minimum CV value located on Spline model linear one knot that is equal to 77.37831 with MSE of 76.75449

Pemodelan Menggunakan Metode Spasial Durbin Model untuk Data Angka Putus Sekolah Usia Pendidikan Dasar

Masalah anak yang putus sekolah perlu mendapatkan perhatian karena salah satu indikator yang berguna untuk mengukur kemajuan sumber daya manusia pada bidang pendidikan. Untuk menekan laju pertambahan jumlah anak putus sekolah tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan cara mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap jumlah anak putus sekolah dan berpotensi dalam meningkatkan laju pertumbuhan anak yang putus sekolah. Pemodelan yang menggunakan pengaruh daerah (area) disebut pemodelan spasial. Ciri dari pemodelan spasial adalah adanya matriks pembobot yang merupakan penanda adanya hubungan antara suatu wilayah dengan wilayah lain. Salah satu model spasial yaitu Spasial Durbin Model (SDM). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui jumlah anak putus sekolah di wilayah Bali dengan menggunakan metode SDM dan ingin menetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi anak putus sekolah di wilayah Bali. Model yang didapat ialah pemodelan SDM menghasilkan nilai AICc yang lebih kecil dibandingkan pemodelan dengan OLS. Tidak adanya lag variabel independen yang signifikan menyebabkan hasil estimasi parameter menggunakan SDM menjadi tidak signifikan akan tetapi pada identifikasi nilai Moran’s I mengidentifikasikan adanya dependensi spasial pada variabel independen yang artinya ada kemiripan sifat untuk lokasi yang saling berdekatan

Penambahan Omzet Usaha Jasa Penjahit Kebaya

Good marketing is one of the important things in the development and addition of income in entrepreneurship. The problem faced in the business of sewing clothes is that partners are not too focused on marketing management. Partners rely more on conventional marketing systems, even though the new location of the partner services business is not too strategic. This causes the field of business is difficult to be recognized by the wider community so that it becomes an obstacle in developing its business. The purpose of this activity is to provide solutions to the problems being faced, namely by implementing marketing management using Facebook pages. With the socialization and marketing management training, it is expected to be able to add insight into the actors in utilizing the internet as an online promotion media to introduce their business fields to the wider community in increasing their business income. The result of this activity was that the Partners were very enthusiastic, both from socialization to evaluation. Assistance with the use of the Facebook pages application is expected to continue to be used in a sustainable manne

Perbandingan Pembobotan Seemingly Unrelated Regression – Spatial Durbin Model Untuk Faktor Kemiskinan Dan Pengangguran

Hukum I Tobler menduga segala sesuatu di suatu wilayah berhubungan erat dengan  wilayah lainnya sehingga pemodelan analisis spasial lebih tepat digunakan untuk memodelkan faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap kemiskinan dan pengangguran di suatu wilayah dengan memperhatikan efek spasialnya Salah satu metode spasial yang bisa digunakan ialah Seemingly Unrelated Regression-Spatial Durbin Model (SUR-SDM). Di dalam penelitian SUR SDM diperlukan suatu  pembobot yang digunakan untuk menghitung koefisien autokorelasi. Matriks pembobot yaitu matriks yang elemen-elemennya adalah nilai pembobot yang diberikan untuk perbandingan setiap daerah tertentu. Metode penentuan matriks pembobot dalam penelitian ini dengan menggunakan Queen Contiguity dan pembobot customize. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan kemiskinan dan pengangguran serta faktor – faktor yang diduga mempengaruhinya menggunakan metode SUR-SDM dengan bobot Queen Contiguity dan Customize. Adapun variabel-variabel yang digunakan yaitu Variabel respon terdiri dari persentase rumah tangga miskin (%) (y1) dan angka pengangguran (%)(y2). Sedangkan variabel bebasnya yaitu terdiri dari: persentase jumlah sarana pelayanan kesehatan meliputi posyandu, poliklinik, puskesmas, puskesmas pembantu, dokter praktek, klinik bersalin, dan pos KB (%) (x1), persentase jumlah sarana sekolah meliputi TK, SD, SLTP, SMU, dan SMK (%) (x2), persentase penduduk yang bekerja di sektor pertanian (%) (x3),  persentase rumah tangga yang menggunakan air bersih (PDAM) (%) (x4), dan rasio penduduk yang belum tamat SD (x5). Hasil yang didapat yaitu pemodelan SUR-SDM dengan bobot Customize  menghasilkan nilai R-Square yang lebih kecil dibandingkan bobot queen di kedua variable respon yaitu sebesar 80.60% dibandingkan queen sebesar 80.64 untuk variable kemiskinan dan untuk variable pengangguran bobot Customize mengasilkan nilai 92.51% lebih kecil disbanding queen sebesar 92.53

Pelatihan Manajemen Pemasaran Berbasis Website pada Usaha Kue Wecakee Denpasar

The development of the home industry, especially in Bali, is currently a very promising business for the perpetrators. Business growth in Bali reaches 4% per year. Wecakee Denpasar is one of the home industries engaged in cake making. This cake-making business only has a homestore and is run by the owner, I Ketut Gede Andrayuga. Wecakee Denpasar produces various kinds of cakes such as cakes, pastries, and sponge. So far, the marketing system carried out by Wecakee Denpasar is word of mouth and is usually based on the friend's relationship with the owner. Seeing the condition of marketing management like this, it causes an uncertain amount of production every day. Based on the description above, the priority problem experienced by partners is marketing management which is still done conventionally, therefore the objectives of this community service activity at Wecakee Denpasar are: Creating a Wecakee Denpasar marketing website. The results of this service, namely the evaluation using a questionnaire, obtained the results of the Very Good index category with an index value of 92.5%

Uji Kelayakan Media Pembelajaran Berorientasi Matematika Realistik dan Kearifan Lokal

AbstractThis study aims to test the feasibility of realistic mathematics-oriented learning media and local wisdom on the material of Constructing Flat Sided Space with the subject of Beams. This learning media is oriented towards the characteristics of the Realistic Mathematics Approach (PMR), namely linking real objects that exist in students' daily lives and implied advice sourced from local wisdom in the media. Data collection techniques using validation questionnaire sheets. The instrument used is a validation questionnaire sheet to determine the feasibility of the media. The data analysis technique used in the research is descriptive quantitative to process data in the form of scores from the assessment by the validator formulated with the Gregory formula. Then qualitative descriptive to describe the data in the form of comments suggestions for improvement from the validator. Based on the results of the validation of the realistic mathematics-oriented learning media and local wisdom, it was declared valid and feasible before product testing because it obtained an average score of 3,38. The score meets the criteria for the validity of the learning device because the value of  is in the range of . The validation of learning media includes aspects such as content, presentation method and physical form. Keywords: learning media, realistic mathematics, local wisdom  AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji kelayakan media pembelajaran berorientasi  matematika realistik  dan kearifan lokal pada materi Bangun Ruang Sisi Datar dengan pokok bahasan Balok. Media pembelajaran ini berorientasi karakteristik Pendekatan Matematika Realistik (PMR) yaitu mengaitkan  benda-benda nyata yang ada di kehidupan sehari-hari siswa dan  tersirat nasehat-nasehat bersumber pada kearifan lokal pada media. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan menggunakan lembar angket validasi. Instrumen yang digunakan berupa lembar angket validasi untuk mengetahui kelayakan media. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian yaitu, deskriptif kuantitatif untuk mengolah data dalam bentuk skor dari penilaian oleh validator yang diformulasikan dengan rumus Gregory. Kemudian deskriptif kualitatif untuk mendeskripsikan data berupa komentar saran perbaikan dari validator. Berdasarkan hasil validasi terhadap media pembelajaran berorientasi  matematika realistik  dan kearifan lokal dinyatakan valid dan layak sebelum uji coba produk karena memperoleh skor rata-rata 3,38. Skor tersebut memenuhi  kriteria kevalidan perangkat pembelajaran karena nilai  berada pada rentang . Validasi media pembelajaran meliputi aspek seperti isi, cara penyajian dan bentuk fisik. Kata kunci: media pembelajaran, matematika realistik, kearifan loka

PELATIHAN DASAR-DASAR PENGGUNAAN MICROSOFT WORD UNTUK SISWA SD N 2 TULIKUP GIANYAR

Education has an important role in efforts to improve human resources in a better direction. Education is expected to be able to form students who can develop their attitudes, skills and intellectual intelligence so that they become skilled, intelligent and noble human beings. At this time of modernization the computer is no longer a foreign device. The use of computers has become an important part of the nation's students in schools. In terms of computer education, it can be used as a tool (media) in the teaching and learning process for both teachers and students. Students' knowledge of using computers, especially the Microsoft Word application at SD Negeri 2 Tulikup, is still relatively small, so that the assignments given at school do not yet use Microsoft Word. Therefore, computer training activities are needed, especially Microsoft Word training. On the bright side, children become more diligent and motivated to learn to concentrate. To achieve this goal, training and assistance have been carried out in the teaching and learning process of introducing information technology in the form of Microsoft Word. This training is conducted regularly and is accompanied by hands-on practice so that the students of SD Negeri 2 Tulikup find it easier to understand and remember. Based on the results of the monitoring and evaluation carried out, this community service activity went well and smoothly, seen from the enthusiasm of the students to learn and directly practice the material that had been taught. The participants were able to use existing tools in Microsoft Word. With this training, it is hoped that students will be more diligent in studying computers which will later be useful in completing school assignments and jobs related to technology. Keywords: Training, Microsoft Word; Elementary schoo

Pelatihan Pemasaran Menggunakan Media Sosial Instagram Pada Usaha Jasa Jahit Kebaya Meka Tailor

Meka Tailor owned by Mrs. Ni Nyoman Mekawati is a kebaya sewing service business located in the Saba Village area, Gianyar, Bali. This thriving business was built around 2020 during the covert pandemic. At the beginning of this business, partners received all forms of sewing orders for clothes. But along with the dominance of kebaya orders, partners are now focusing on kebaya sewing services. In receiving his orders, partners only rely on a network of friends and relatives who already know him. This is because partners have not yet marketed this business through this growing internet medium. The orders that came were also not small. In just one day, partners are able to process at least 3 kebaya sewing orders that must be completed. Sometimes there are no orders coming in for a while, which results in no income for partners. The purpose of this service activity is to introduce Instagram social media to help market the kebaya sewing service business owned by partners.  Keywords: training; kebaya; social media; instagra

PERBANDINGAN METODE REGRESI SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL DAN SPATIAL ERROR MODEL UNTUK KEJADIAN DIARE DI PROVINSI BALI

To control the growth rate of diarrheal cases, one of the steps that can be taken is to analyze factors related to diarrhea and their potential to contribute to an increase in diarrhea cases from a regional perspective. Understanding the influence of regions or geographic factors in modeling is known as spatial modeling. It has been identified that there are two common variants of spatial models often used, which include the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) and the Spatial Error Model (SEM). The objective of this research is to determine the best model for the incidence of diarrhea in the Bali region by applying spatial analysis methods such as SAR and SEM. The research results indicate that the data used in the analysis contain significant spatial elements, highlighting the importance of integrating spatial aspects into modeling. In this context, the SEM method has proven to be the most suitable model when compared to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and SAR. The R-squared value for the SEM model is 96.01%, and it achieves the lowest AIC value of 267.558. Therefore, these findings demonstrate that the SEM model is more accurate in explaining the relationships among the variables involved in this study