Predicción de resultados de partidos de fútbol

La popularidad de las apuestas deportivas ha ido creciendo exponencialmente. Por esta razón, poder predecir el resultado de un partido de fútbol mediante variables muy intuitivas y sencillas es una idea ambiciosa cuya finalidad busca obtener beneficio económico mediante su aplicación a apuestas deportivas. Para ello, se han elegido modelos de regresión logística múltiple para obtener la probabilidad que tiene un equipo de ganar, y la programación dinámica como herramienta de desarrollo de una estrategia óptima, en la que se llega a obtener un beneficio del 600% de la fortuna inicial

Mortality and Causes of Death After Liver Transplantation: Analysis of Sex Differences in a Large Nationwide Cohort

In the last few years, several studies have analyzed sex and gender differences in liver transplantation (LT), but none have performed a disaggregated analysis of both mortality and causes of death. Data from 15,998 patients, 11,914 (74.5%) males and 4,069 (25.5%) females, transplanted between 2000 and 2016 were obtained from the Liver Transplantation Spanish Registry. Survival analysis was applied to explore recipient sex as a risk factor for death. The causes of death at different follow-up duration were disaggregated by recipient sex for analysis. Short-term survival was higher in males, whereas long-term survival was higher in females. Survival at 1, 5 and 10 years post-transplant was 87.43%, 73.83%, and 61.23%, respectively, in males and 86.28%, 74.19%, and 65.10%, respectively, in females (p = 0.05). Post-LT mortality related to previous liver disease also presented sex differences. Males had 37% increased overall mortality from acute liver failure (p = 0.035) and 37% from HCV-negative cirrhosis (p < 0.001). Females had approximately 16% increased mortality when the liver disease was HCV-positive cirrhosis (p = 0.003). Regarding causes of death, non-malignancy HCV+ recurrence (6.3% vs. 3.9% of patients; p < 0.001), was more frequently reported in females. By contrast, death because of malignancy recurrence (3.9% vs. 2.2% of patients; p = 0.003) and de novo malignancy (4.8% vs. 2.5% of patients; p < 0.001) were significantly more frequent in male recipients. Cardiovascular disease, renal failure, and surgical complications were similar in both. In summary, male patients have lower short-term mortality than females but higher long-term and overall mortality. In addition, the post-LT mortality risk related to previous liver disease and the causes of mortality differ between males and females

The body mass index increases the genetic risk scores' ability to predict risk of hepatic damage in European adolescents: The HELENA study

Background Hepatic disorders are often complex and multifactorial, modulated by genetic and environmental determinants. During the last years, the hepatic disease has been progressively established from early stages in life. The use of genetic risk scores (GRS) to predict the genetic susceptibility to a particular phenotype among youth has gained interest in recent years. Moreover, the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) blood biomarker is often considered as hepatic screening tool, in combination with imaging techniques. The aim of the present study was to develop an ALT-specific GRS to help in the evaluation of hepatic damage risk in European adolescents. Methods A total of 972 adolescents (51.3% females), aged 12.5–17.5 years, from the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence study were included in the analyses. The sample incorporated adolescents in all body mass index (BMI) categories and was divided considering healthy/unhealthy ALT levels, using sex-specific cut-off points. From 1212 a priori ALT-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) extracted from candidate gene selection, a first screening of 234 SNPs univariately associated was established, selecting seven significant SNPs (p < .05) in the multivariate model. An unweighted GRS (uGRS) was developed by summing the number of reference alleles, and a weighted GRS (wGRS), by multiplying each allele to its estimated coefficient. Results The uGRS and wGRS were significantly associated with ALT (p < .001). The area under curve was obtained integrating BMI as clinical factor, improving the predictive ability for uGRS (.7039) and wGRS (.7035), using 10-fold internal cross-validation. Conclusions Considering BMI status, both GRSs could contribute as complementary tools to help in the early diagnosis of hepatic damage risk in European adolescents

Development of a Genetic Risk Score to predict the risk of overweight and obesity in European adolescents from the HELENA study

Obesity is the result of interactions between genes and environmental factors. Since monogenic etiology is only known in some obesity-related genes, a genetic risk score (GRS) could be useful to determine the genetic predisposition to obesity. Therefore, the aim of our study was to build a GRS able to predict genetic predisposition to overweight and obesity in European adolescents. A total of 1069 adolescents (51.3% female), aged 11–19 years participating in the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence (HELENA) cross-sectional study were genotyped. The sample was divided in non-overweight (non-OW) and overweight/obesity (OW/OB). From 611 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) available, a first screening of 104 SNPs univariately associated with obesity (p < 0.20) was established selecting 21 significant SNPs (p < 0.05) in the multivariate model. Unweighted GRS (uGRS) was calculated by summing the number of risk alleles and weighted GRS (wGRS) by multiplying the risk alleles to each estimated coefficient. The area under curve (AUC) was calculated in uGRS (0.723) and wGRS (0.734) using tenfold internal cross-validation. Both uGRS and wGRS were significantly associated with body mass index (BMI) (p < .001). Both GRSs could potentially be considered as useful genetic tools to evaluate individual’s predisposition to overweight/obesity in European adolescents.European Commission FOOD-CT-2005-007034HELENA projectSpanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness RYC-2010-05957 RYC2011-09011Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Fisiopatología de la Obesidad y Nutrición (CIBERObn)Iberus Talent Pre-doctoral fellowships under the European Union 801586Instituto de Salud Carlos III CB15/0004

Mediterranean diet, screen-time-based sedentary behavior and their interaction effect on adiposity in European adolescents: The HELENA study

Childhood obesity is a worldwide epidemic. Mediterranean diet (MD) is inversely associated with childhood obesity, but the interaction with other environmental factors, such screen time, might influence the health benefits of a high MD adherence in adolescents. The aim of the present study was to assess whether an association between MD and screen time exists in European adolescents. Moreover, we also explored whether sedentary time has a modulatory effect on the association between MD and adiposity. Adherence to the MD (24 h recalls), screen time (questionnaire), pubertal development, body mass index (BMI), fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC) were evaluated in 2053 adolescents (54.7% females), aged 12.5–17.5 years. In females, MD adherence was associated with lower BMI and FMI only when they were exposed to less than 338 min/day of screen time (81.8% of females); MD adherence was also associated with lower WC only when females were exposed to less than 143 min/day of screen time (31.5% of females). No significant MD-screen time interaction was observed in males. In conclusion, screen-time-based sedentary behaviours had a modulatory effect in the association between MD adherence and adiposity in European female adolescents

Development of a genetic risk score to predict the risk of hypertension in European adolescents from the HELENA study

Abstract Background Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with blood pressure (BP) levels. A combination of SNPs, forming a genetic risk score (GRS) could be considered a useful genetic tool to identify individuals at risk of developing hypertension from early stages in life. Therefore, the study aims to predict the genetic predisposition to hypertension in European adolescents from a GRS. Methods A total of 869 adolescents (53% female), aged 12.5–17.5, were included from the “Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence” (HELENA) cross-sectional study. The sample was divided into altered (≥ 130 mmHg for systolic and/or ≥ 80 mmHg for diastolic) or normal BP. Results From 1534 SNPs available, An initial screening of SNPs univariately associated with BP (p &lt; 0.10) was established, to finally obtain a number of 16 SNPs significantly associated with BP (p &lt; 0.05) in the multivariate model. Both unweighted GRS (uGRS) and weighted GRS (wGRS) were associated with altered BP. The area under the curve was explored using ten-fold internal cross-validation for uGRS (0.796) and wGRS (0.803). Further covariates were added to obtain a higher predictive ability. Conclusions Both GRSs, could be useful to evaluate the genetic predisposition to hypertension in European adolescents.</jats:p