Forecasting U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series with Noncausal and Causal AR Models: A Comparison

In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of univariate noncausal and conventional causal autoregressive models for a comprehensive data set consisting of 170 monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series. The noncausal models consistently outperform the causal models in terms of the mean square and mean absolute forecast errors. For a set of 18 quarterly time series, the improvement in forecast accuracy due to allowing for noncausality is found even greater.Noncausal autoregression; forecast comparison; macroeconomic variables; financial variables

Finnveran vaikuttavuuden arviointia

Tutkielmassa arvioidaan mikroekonometrisin menetelmin valtion erityisrahoitusyhtiö Finnvera Oyj:n myöntämien vastikkeellisten lainojen ja takausten vaikuttavuutta asiakasyritysten liikevaihtoon, henkilöstömäärään ja liiketulokseen. Tämän lisäksi tarkastellaan, kuinka toistuvasti sama yritys saa Finnveran rahoitusta ja mistä tämä toistuvuus johtuu. Julkisella rahoituksella pyritään paikkaamaan rahoitusmarkkinoilla vallitsevia puutteita. Työssä esitellään Stiglitzin ja Weissin (1981) sekä De Mezan ja Webbin (1987) teoreettiset mallit, joissa tarkastellaan epäsymmetrisen informaation vaikutuksia yritysrahoitukseen. Mallien ristiriitaiset tulokset korostavat yritysrahoitukseen liittyvää teoreettista epävarmuutta. Tutkimusaineisto on epätasapainoinen paneeli Suomessa toimivista pk-yrityksistä vuosilta 2004–2011. Aineisto on koottu useammasta eri lähteestä. Finnveran rahoituksen vaikuttavuutta arvioidaan sekä kiinteiden vaikutusten (fixed effects) paneelimalleilla että erotukset-erotuksissa –vertaistamisen avulla (Heckman ym. 1997). Rahoituksen toistuvuuden tutkiminen perustuu havaittuihin Markovin siirtymätodennäköisyyksiin ja toistuvuuden syyt Finnveran toimihenkilöiltä kerättyihin tietoihin. Paneelimallien estimointitulokset osoittavat, että Finnveran rahoitus mahdollistaa yritysten liikevaihdon ja henkilöstömäärän kasvun. Sen sijaan yritysten kannattavuuden paranemisesta ei saada viitteitä. Erotukset-erotuksissa –vertaistaminen tukee paneelimallien tuloksia. Asiakkuudella on positiivisia vaikutuksia erityisesti henkilöstömäärään. Samalla saadaan kuitenkin näyttöä siitä, että rahoituksen vaikutukset riippuvat vuodesta, jolloin yritys on tullut Finnveran asiakkaaksi. Tulokset ovat yleisesti linjassa niin kotimaisten kuin ulkomaisten vastaavien tutkimusten kanssa. Rahoituksen toistuvuuden tarkastelu osoittaa, että kerran rahoitusta saanut yritys saa sitä melko todennäköisesti myös tulevaisuudessa. Vaikuttaa kuitenkin siltä, että uudempien yritysten luottopäätöksissä Finnvera pyrkii kohti markkinaehtoista rahoitusratkaisua. Toimihenkilöiltä saatu lisäinformaatio havainnollistaa, että pankkien kanssa tehtävät limiittirahoitukset aiheuttavat pääosan tilastollisesta toistuvuudesta. Toistuvuuteen vaikuttavat lisäksi muun muassa pankkien halukkuus riskinjakoon, yrittäjän halukkuus Finnveran rahoitukseen sekä Finnveran halu pitää kiinni vanhoista asiakkaista, joiden toimintalogiikan se on oppinut ymmärtämään. Aineiston analyysin perusteella päädytään tulokseen, että Finnveran rahoitus paikkaa yritysten kohtaamaa markkinapuutetta ja auttaa niitä kasvamaan. Tarkastelujakson lyhyt aikaväli ei mahdollista lopullista päätelmää rahoituksen vaikutuksista kannattavuuteen. Yksi tutkimuksen keskeinen huomioon otettava asia on, estimointeihin valikoituneet koeryhmän yritykset ovat keskimääräistä Finnveran asiakasta vanhempia ja suurempia. Näin ollen tuloksia ei voida yleistää aloittaviin ja pieniin Finnveran asiakkaisiin, jotka muodostavat määrällisesti suurimman asiakasjoukon. Tämä on tiettävästi ensimmäinen tutkimus, jossa voidaan tarkastella Finnveran rahoituksen tarpeellisuutta vuonna 2007 alkaneen finanssikriisin aikana. Tulosten perusteella Finnveran rahoituksella on positiivisin vaikutus juuri kriisin aikana asiakkaiksi tulleisiin yrityksiin. Tämä tulos viittaa siihen, että todellinen markkinapuute vaihtelee suhdannetilanteen mukaan

Forecasting U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series with Noncausal and Causal AR Models : A Comparison

In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of univariate noncausal and conventional causal autoregressive models for a comprehensive data set consisting of 170 monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series. The noncausal models consistently outperform the causal models in terms of the mean square and mean absolute forecast errors. For a set of 18 quarterly time series, the improvement in forecast accuracy due to allowing for noncausality is found even greater

Does Noncausality Help in Forecasting Economic Time Series?

In this paper, we compare the forecasting performance of univariate noncausal and conventional causal autoregressive models for a comprehensive data set consisting of 170 monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial time series. The noncausal models consistently outperform the causal models. For a collection of quarterly time series, the improvement in forecast accuracy due to allowing for noncausality is found even greater.Peer reviewe

Noviisiopettajien kokemuksia alakoulun käsityön opetukseen tarvittavista valmiuksista

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tarkoituksena on selvittää noviisiopettajien kokemuksia käsityön opetuksessa vaadittavista valmiuksista. Tutkimuksessa selvitämme, miten noviisiopettajat määrittelevät valmius sanan ja mitä valmiuksia he kokevat käsityön opettamisessa tarvitsevan. Tutkimuksessa tutkittava käsityön opettaminen on rajattu alakoulun vuosiluokille 3–6. Tutkimuksen teoriaosuus koostuu kolmesta pääluvusta, jossa käydään läpi tutkimukselle keskeistä teoriataustaa. Tutkimuksen aineisto on kerätty haastatellen viittä (n=5) noviisiopettajaa. Haastattelu on toteutettu teemahaastatteluna ja haastateltavat ovat teemarungon pohjalta saaneet avoimesti kertoa omia kokemuksiaan tutkittavasta aiheesta. Tutkimusote on fenomenologinen ja tutkimusaineisto on analysoitu sisällönanalyysin avulla. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kokemukset tarvittavista valmiuksista liittyivät kaikki jollakin tapaa opetuksen toteutukseen. Esille tuli selkeästi opettajan oma aineenhallinnallinen taito ja kiinnostus käsitöitä kohtaan, jotta käsityön opetusta voi toteuttaa laadukkaasti. Tämän lisäksi tärkeitä valmiuksia haastateltavien mielestä olivat työturvallisuus, opetussuunnitelman tuntemus ja sen käyttö, sekä oppilastöiden soveltuvuus ja niiden muokkaaminen ikätasoille sopiviksi. Tulokset eivät ole yleistettävissä, mutta ne lisäävät tietoa noviisiopettajien kokemuksista käsityön opetuksen kontekstissa työuran alussa

Managing the allergy and asthma epidemic in 2020s-Lessons from the Finnish experience

In Finland, a systematic public health programme was implemented from 2008 to 2018 to mitigate the burden of allergic disorders by revisiting the prevention strategy. Allergy health and contacts with natural environment were emphasized to promote immunological and psychological resilience instead of poorly justified avoidance. Allergy management practices were improved and low-valued recommendations for care, for example for food allergy, were revised. Patients and families were empowered to use guided self-management to proactively stop symptom exacerbations. A professional non-governmental organization implemented the nationwide education for healthcare and patient NGOs for patients, families and lay public. In healthcare, the work supporting allergic patients and families was organized towards common goals and integrated into everyday work without extra costs. Reaching the predefined goals was followed by employing the national healthcare registers and questionnaire surveys. Governmental bodies contributed with kick-off funding, which was supplemented by private funding. International collaboration, for example with the European patient organization (EFA), increased awareness of the Finnish action and predisposed it for peer review. The 10-year results are favourable, patients are less disabled, practices and attitudes in healthcare have changed, and major cost savings have been obtained. Views of the lay public and patients are slow to move, however. Local multidisciplinary allergy teams were set up to continue the activities also after the Programme. Changes in environment and lifestyle in the last 50 years are the main reasons for the allergy rise. The Finnish experience may help to manage allergic diseases, improve nature relatedness in the fast-urbanizing world, combat nature loss and reduce the disease burden.Peer reviewe

Managing the allergy and asthma epidemic in 2020s-Lessons from the Finnish experience

In Finland, a systematic public health programme was implemented from 2008 to 2018 to mitigate the burden of allergic disorders by revisiting the prevention strategy. Allergy health and contacts with natural environment were emphasized to promote immunological and psychological resilience instead of poorly justified avoidance. Allergy management practices were improved and low-valued recommendations for care, for example for food allergy, were revised. Patients and families were empowered to use guided self-management to proactively stop symptom exacerbations. A professional non-governmental organization implemented the nationwide education for healthcare and patient NGOs for patients, families and lay public. In healthcare, the work supporting allergic patients and families was organized towards common goals and integrated into everyday work without extra costs. Reaching the predefined goals was followed by employing the national healthcare registers and questionnaire surveys. Governmental bodies contributed with kick-off funding, which was supplemented by private funding. International collaboration, for example with the European patient organization (EFA), increased awareness of the Finnish action and predisposed it for peer review. The 10-year results are favourable, patients are less disabled, practices and attitudes in healthcare have changed, and major cost savings have been obtained. Views of the lay public and patients are slow to move, however. Local multidisciplinary allergy teams were set up to continue the activities also after the Programme. Changes in environment and lifestyle in the last 50 years are the main reasons for the allergy rise. The Finnish experience may help to manage allergic diseases, improve nature relatedness in the fast-urbanizing world, combat nature loss and reduce the disease burden

Standardised spider (Arachnida, Araneae) inventory of Kilpisjarvi, Finland

Background A spider taxonomy and ecology field course was organised in Kilpisjarvi Biological Station, northern Finland, in July 2019. During the course, four 50 x 50 m plots in mountain birch forest habitat were sampled following a standardised protocol. In addition to teaching and learning about spider identification, behaviour, ecology and sampling, the main aim of the course was to collect comparable data from the Kilpisjarvi area as part of a global project, with the purpose of uncovering global spider diversity patterns. New information A total of 2613 spiders were collected, of which 892 (34%) were adults. Due to uncertainty of juvenile identification, only adults are included in the data presented in this paper. The observed adult spiders belong to 51 species, 40 genera and 11 families, of which the Linyphiidae were the most rich and abundant with 28 (55%) species and 461 (52%) individuals. Lycosidae had six species and 286 individuals, Gnaphosidae five species and 19 individuals, Thomisidae four species and 24 individuals, Theridiidae two species and 23 individuals. All other six families had one species and less than 40 individuals. The most abundant species were the linyphiid Agnyphantes expunctus (204) and the lycosids Pardosa eiseni (164) and Pardosa hyperborea (107).Peer reviewe

The Finnish Allergy Program 2008-2018 : Society-wide proactive program for change of management to mitigate allergy burden

A 10-year national program to improve prevention and management of allergic diseases and asthma was implemented in Finland (population 5.5. million) in 2008-2018. The main aim was to reduce the long-term burden of these conditions. The strategy was changed from traditional avoidance to tolerance and resilience of the population. Health was endorsed instead of medicalization of mild symptoms. Disease severity was reevaluated, and disabling clinical manifestations were given high priority. For health care, 5 quantitative goals and 1 qualitative goal were set. For each of the goals, specific tasks, tools, and outcome evaluation were stipulated. During the program, 376 educational sessions gathered 24,000 health care participants. An information campaign targeted the lay public, and social media was used to contact people. In the 10 years of the program, the prevalence of allergic diseases and asthma leveled off. Asthma caused fewer symptoms and less disability, and 50% fewer hospital days. Food allergy diets in day care and schools decreased by half. Occupational allergies were reduced by 45%. In 2018, the direct and indirect costs of allergic diseases and asthma ranged from (sic)1.5 billion to (sic)1.8 billion, with the 2018 figures being 30% less than in the respective figures in 2007. The Finnish proactive and real-world intervention markedly reduced the public health burden of allergic disorders. The allergy paradigm was revisited to improve management with systematic education.Peer reviewe

The Finnish Allergy Program 2008-2018: Society-wide proactive program for change of management to mitigate allergy burden

A 10-year national program to improve prevention and management of allergic diseases and asthma was implemented in Finland (population 5.5. million) in 2008-2018. The main aim was to reduce the long-term burden of these conditions. The strategy was changed from traditional avoidance to tolerance and resilience of the population. Health was endorsed instead of medicalization of mild symptoms. Disease severity was reevaluated, and disabling clinical manifestations were given high priority. For health care, 5 quantitative goals and 1 qualitative goal were set. For each of the goals, specific tasks, tools, and outcome evaluation were stipulated. During the program, 376 educational sessions gathered 24,000 health care participants. An information campaign targeted the lay public, and social media was used to contact people. In the 10 years of the program, the prevalence of allergic diseases and asthma leveled off. Asthma caused fewer symptoms and less disability, and 50% fewer hospital days. Food allergy diets in day care and schools decreased by half. Occupational allergies were reduced by 45%. In 2018, the direct and indirect costs of allergic diseases and asthma ranged from €1.5 million to €1.8 million, with the 2018 figures being 30% less than in the respective figures in 2007. The Finnish proactive and real-world intervention markedly reduced the public health burden of allergic disorders. The allergy paradigm was revisited to improve management with systematic education.</p