Validation of the myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index machine learning algorithm to guide the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in a heterogenous population: a prespecified exploratory analysis

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic pathways for myocardial infarction rely on fixed troponin thresholds, which do not recognise that troponin varies by age, sex, and time within individuals. To overcome this limitation, we recently introduced a machine learning algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction. Our aim was to evaluate whether this algorithm performs well in routine clinical practice and predicts subsequent events. METHODS: The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm was validated in a prespecified exploratory analysis using data from a multi-centre randomised trial done in Scotland, UK that included consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome undergoing serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurement. Patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were excluded. MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0-100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction during the index visit and estimates diagnostic performance metrics (including area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, and the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value) at the computed score. Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction (type 1 or type 4b), and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year was determined using the previously defined low-probability threshold (1·6) and high-probability MI3 threshold (49·7). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01852123. FINDINGS: In total, 20 761 patients (64 years [SD 16], 9597 [46%] women) enrolled between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, were included from the High-STEACS trial cohort, of whom 3272 (15·8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0·949 (95% CI 0·946-0·952) identifying 12 983 (62·5%) patients as low-probability for myocardial infarction at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score <1·6; sensitivity 99·3% [95% CI 99·0-99·6], negative predictive value 99·8% [99·8-99·9]), and 2961 (14·3%) as high-probability at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score ≥49·7; specificity 95·0% [94·6-95·3], positive predictive value 70·4% [68·7-72·0]). At 1 year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability patients than low-probability patients (520 [17·6%] of 2961 vs 197 [1·5%] of 12 983], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In consecutive patients undergoing serial cardiac troponin measurement for suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimated the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicted subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. By providing individual probabilities the MI3 algorithm could improve the diagnosis and assessment of risk in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and NHSX

Multicenter experience from the UK and Ireland of use of lumen-apposing metal stent for transluminal drainage of pancreatic fluid collections

Background and study aims: Pancreatic fluid collection (PFC) is a common complication of pancreatitis for which endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage is first-line treatment. A new single-device, lumen-apposing, covered self-expanding metal stent (LAMS) has been licensed for PFC drainage. We therefore present our multicenter experience with the LAMS for PFC drainage in a multicenter prospective case series to assess success and complication rates. Patients and methods: All adult patients from 11 tertiary centers who had LAMS placement for PFC from July 2015 to July 2016 were included. Data including indications, technical success, clinical success, collection resolution, stent removal, early and late adverse events (AEs), mortality and recurrence at 6 months were collected. Results: 116 patients, median age 52.5 years (range 16 – 80) and 67 % male, were treated with a single LAMS in each case. The indication was walled off necrosis (WON) in 70 and pseudocyst in 46. Median size of the PFC was 11 cm (5 – 21 cm) and the estimated median necrotic volume in WON was 30 % (5 % – 90 %). Stent insertion was technically successful in 115 (99.1 %) and clinically successful in 109 (94 %). Early serious AEs (SAEs): n = 7 sepsis, n = 1 stent blockage with food, n = 1 stent migration requiring laparotomy, n = 1 stent dislodgement and n = 1 bleeding requiring emboliZation. Late AEs: n = 1 buried stent and n = 1 esophageal fistula. Non-procedure-related deaths: n = 3 (2.5 %). Conclusion: This multicenter case series demonstrates that use of the new LAMS is feasible, effective and relatively safe in draining PFC with a technical success rate of 99 % and cumulative SAE rate of 11.2 %

Proton pump inhibitors and the risk of pneumonia: A comparison of cohort and self-controlled case series designs

Background: To compare the results of a new-user cohort study design and the self-controlled case series (SCCS) design using the risk of hospitalisation for pneumonia in those dispensed proton pump inhibitors compared to those unexposed as a case study. Methods: The Australian Government Department of Veterans’ Affairs administrative claims database was used. Exposure to proton pump inhibitors and hospitalisations for pneumonia were identified over a 4 year study period 01 Jul 2007 -30 Jun 2011. The same inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to both studies, however, the SCCS study included subjects with a least one hospitalisation for pneumonia. Results: There were 105,467 subjects included in the cohort study and 6775 in the SCCS. Both studies showed an increased risk of hospitalisations for pneumonia in the three defined risk periods following initiation of proton pump inhibitors compared to baseline. With the highest risk in the first 1 to 7 days (Cohort RR, 3.24; 95% CI (2.50, 4.19): SCCS: RR, 3.07; 95% CI (2.69, 3.50)). Conclusions: This study has shown that the self-controlled case series method produces similar risk estimates to a new-users cohort study design when applied to the association of proton pump inhibitors and pneumonia. Exposure to a proton pump inhibitor increases the likelihood of being admitted to hospital for pneumonia, with the risk highest in the first week of treatment.Emmae N Ramsay, Nicole L Pratt, Philip Ryan and Elizabeth E Roughea

Kinetics and 28-day test-retest repeatability and reproducibility of [C-11]UCB-J PET brain imaging

[C-11]UCB-J is a novel radioligand that binds to synaptic vesicle glycoprotein 2A (SV2A). The main objective of this study was to determine the 28-day test-retest repeatability (TRT) of quantitative [C-11]UCB-J brain positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and healthy controls (HCs). Nine HCs and eight AD patients underwent two 60 min dynamic [C-11]UCB-J PET scans with arterial sampling with an interval of 28 days. The optimal tracer kinetic model was assessed using the Akaike criteria (AIC). Micro-/macro-parameters such as tracer delivery (K-1) and volume of distribution (V-T) were estimated using the optimal model. Data were also analysed for simplified reference tissue model (SRTM) with centrum semi-ovale (white matter) as reference region. Based on AIC, both 1T2k_V-B and 2T4k_V-B described the [C-11]UCB-J kinetics equally well. Analysis showed that whole-brain grey matter TRT for V-T, DVR and SRTM BPND were -2.2% +/- 8.5, 0.4% +/- 12.0 and -8.0% +/- 10.2, averaged over all subjects. [C-11]UCB-J kinetics can be well described by a 1T2k_V-B model, and a 60 min scan duration was sufficient to obtain reliable estimates for both plasma input and reference tissue models. TRT for V-T, DVR and BPND wa

The psychic costs of migration: evidence from Irish return migrants

Within the economics literature, the 'psychic costs' of migration have been incorporated into theoretical models since Sjaastad (J Polit Econ 70:80 93, 1962). However, the existence of such costs has rarely been investigated in empirical papers. In this paper, we look at the psychic costs of migration by using alcohol problems as an indicator. Rather than comparing immigrants and natives, we look at the native-born in a single country and compare those who have lived away for a period of their lives and those who have not. We use data from the first wave of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing which is a large, nationally representative sample of older Irish adults. We find that men who lived away are more likely to have suffered from alcohol problems than men who stayed. For women, we again see a higher incidence of alcohol problems for short-term migrants. However, long-term female migrants are less likely to have suffered from alcohol problems. For these women, it seems that migration provided psychic benefits, and this is consistent with findings fro

Physics, Astrophysics and Cosmology with Gravitational Waves

Gravitational wave detectors are already operating at interesting sensitivity levels, and they have an upgrade path that should result in secure detections by 2014. We review the physics of gravitational waves, how they interact with detectors (bars and interferometers), and how these detectors operate. We study the most likely sources of gravitational waves and review the data analysis methods that are used to extract their signals from detector noise. Then we consider the consequences of gravitational wave detections and observations for physics, astrophysics, and cosmology.Comment: 137 pages, 16 figures, Published version <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2009-2

Multiple populations in globular clusters. Lessons learned from the Milky Way globular clusters

Recent progress in studies of globular clusters has shown that they are not simple stellar populations, being rather made of multiple generations. Evidence stems both from photometry and spectroscopy. A new paradigm is then arising for the formation of massive star clusters, which includes several episodes of star formation. While this provides an explanation for several features of globular clusters, including the second parameter problem, it also opens new perspectives about the relation between globular clusters and the halo of our Galaxy, and by extension of all populations with a high specific frequency of globular clusters, such as, e.g., giant elliptical galaxies. We review progress in this area, focusing on the most recent studies. Several points remain to be properly understood, in particular those concerning the nature of the polluters producing the abundance pattern in the clusters and the typical timescale, the range of cluster masses where this phenomenon is active, and the relation between globular clusters and other satellites of our Galaxy.Comment: In press (The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review

Product factorability of integral bilinear operators on Banach function spaces

[EN] This paper deals with bilinear operators acting in pairs of Banach function spaces that factor through the pointwise product. We find similar situations in different contexts of the functional analysis, including abstract vector lattices¿orthosymmetric maps, C¿-algebras¿zero product preserving operators, and classical and harmonic analysis¿integral bilinear operators. Bringing together the ideas of these areas, we show new factorization theorems and characterizations by means of norm inequalities. The objective of the paper is to apply these tools to provide new descriptions of some classes of bilinear integral operators, and to obtain integral representations for abstract classes of bilinear maps satisfying certain domination properties.The first author was supported by TUBITAK-The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, Grant No. 2211/E. The second author was supported by Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (Spain) and FEDER, Grant MTM2016-77054-C2-1-P.Erdogan, E.; Sánchez Pérez, EA.; Gok, O. (2019). Product factorability of integral bilinear operators on Banach function spaces. Positivity. 23(3):671-696. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11117-018-0632-zS671696233Abramovich, Y.A., Kitover, A.K.: Inverses of Disjointness Preserving Operators. American Mathematical Society, Providence (2000)Abramovich, Y.A., Wickstead, A.W.: When each continuous operator is regular II. Indag. Math. (N.S.) 8(3), 281–294 (1997)Alaminos, J., Brešar, M., Extremera, J., Villena, A.R.: Maps preserving zero products. Studia Math. 193(2), 131–159 (2009)Alaminos, J., Brešar, M., Extremera, J., Villena, A.R.: On bilinear maps determined by rank one idempotents. Linear Algebra Appl. 432, 738–743 (2010)Alaminos, J., Extremera, J., Villena, A.R.: Orthogonality preserving linear maps on group algebras. Math. Proc. Camb. Philos. 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Health Education and Community Empowerment: Conceptualizing and Measuring Perceptions of Individual, Organizational and Community Control

Also PCMA Working Paper #38.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/51259/1/493.pd