Vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to hantavirus infections based on multi‑criteria decision analysis

Background: Hantavirus infection is an emerging zoonosis transmitted by wild rodents. In Brazil, high case-fatality rates among humans infected with hantavirus are of serious concern to public health authorities. Appropriate preventive measures partly depend on reliable knowledge about the geographical distribution of this disease. Methods: Incidence of hantavirus infections in Brazil (1993–2013) was analyzed. Epidemiological, socioeconomic, and demographic indicators were also used to classify cities’ vulnerability to disease by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Results: From 1993 to 2013, 1752 cases of hantavirus were registered in 16 Brazilian states. The highest incidence of hantavirus was observed in the states of Mato Grosso (0.57/100,000) and Santa Catarina (0.13/100,000). Based on MCDA analysis, municipalities in the southern, southeastern, and midwestern regions of Brazil can be classified as highly vulnerable. Most municipalities in northern and northeastern Brazil were classified as having low vulnerability to hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome. Conclusions: Although most human infections by hantavirus registered in Brazil occurred in the southern region of the country, a greater vulnerability to hantavirus was found in the Brazilian Midwest. This result reflects the need to strengthen surveillance where the disease has thus far gone unreported

Potential geographic distribution of Hantavirus reservoirs in Brazil

Hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome is an emerging zoonosis in Brazil. Human infections occur via inhalation of aerosolized viral particles from excreta of infected wild rodents. Necromys lasiurus and Oligoryzomys nigripes appear to be the main reservoirs of hantavirus in the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes. We estimated and compared ecological niches of the two rodent species, and analyzed environmental factors influencing their occurrence, to understand the geography of hantavirus transmission. N. lasiurus showed a wide potential distribution in Brazil, in the Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic Forest biomes. Highest climate suitability for O. nigripes was observed along the Brazilian Atlantic coast. Maximum temperature in the warmest months and annual precipitation were the variables that most influence the distributions of N. lasiurus and O. nigripes, respectively. Models based on occurrences of infected rodents estimated a broader area of risk for hantavirus transmission in southeastern and southern Brazil, coinciding with the distribution of human cases of hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome. We found no demonstrable environmental differences among occurrence sites for the rodents and for human cases of hantavirus. However, areas of northern and northeastern Brazil are also apparently suitable for the two species, without broad coincidence with human cases. Modeling of niches and distributions of rodent reservoirs indicates potential for transmission of hantavirus across virtually all of Brazil outside the Amazon Basin

Genotype and Gene Expression Associations with Immune Function in Drosophila

It is now well established that natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster harbor substantial genetic variation associated with physiological measures of immune function. In no case, however, have intermediate measures of immune function, such as transcriptional activity of immune-related genes, been tested as mediators of phenotypic variation in immunity. In this study, we measured bacterial load sustained after infection of D. melanogaster with Serratia marcescens, Providencia rettgeri, Enterococcus faecalis, and Lactococcus lactis in a panel of 94 third-chromosome substitution lines. We also measured transcriptional levels of 329 immune-related genes eight hours after infection with E. faecalis and S. marcescens in lines from the phenotypic tails of the test panel. We genotyped the substitution lines at 137 polymorphic markers distributed across 25 genes in order to test for statistical associations among genotype, bacterial load, and transcriptional dynamics. We find that genetic polymorphisms in the pathogen recognition genes (and particularly in PGRP-LC, GNBP1, and GNBP2) are most significantly associated with variation in bacterial load. We also find that overall transcriptional induction of effector proteins is a significant predictor of bacterial load after infection with E. faecalis, and that a marker upstream of the recognition gene PGRP-SD is statistically associated with variation in both bacterial load and transcriptional induction of effector proteins. These results show that polymorphism in genes near the top of the immune system signaling cascade can have a disproportionate effect on organismal phenotype due to the amplification of minor effects through the cascade

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

The surface expression of semi-diurnal internal tides near a strong source at Hawai`i. Part I: Observations and numerical predictions

Observations of semidiurnal currents from high-frequency radio Doppler current meters and moored acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) in the Kauai Channel, Hawaii, are described and compared with two primitive equation numerical models of the tides. The Kauai Channel, separating the islands of Oahu and Kauai, is a site of strong internal tide generation by the barotropic tides flowing over Kaena Ridge, the subsurface extension of Oahu. The nature and impacts of internal tide generation in the Kauai Channel were intensively studied during the 2002–03 near-field component of the Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment. Comparisons of observed coherent (i.e., phase locked to the astronomical forcing) M2 and S2 surface currents with model predictions show good agreement for the phases, indicating propagation of internal tides away from the ridge. Although the predicted M2 and S2 surface currents are similar (except for their magnitudes), as expected for internal waves at periods closer to each other (12.4 and 12 h, respectively) than to the inertial period (33 h), the observed M2 and S2 surface currents differ significantly. The S2 kinetic energy pattern resembles the predicted pattern. In contrast, the observed structure and magnitude of the more important M2 kinetic energy pattern differs significantly from the model predictions. The models predict a band of enhanced M2 surface kinetic energy 30–40 km from the ridge axis, corresponding to the first surface reflection of internal tide beams generated on the ridge flanks. The beams are clearly observed by the moored ADCPs, albeit with weaker amplitudes than predicted. Observations at the surface show an area of enhanced kinetic energy that is 10–20 km farther away from the ridge than predicted, with weaker magnitude. Observed M2 surface currents also exhibit apparent seasonal variability, with magnitudes weaker in spring 2003 than in fall 2002. Complex-demodulated semidiurnal currents exhibit significant temporal variability in amplitude and phase, not only because of the interference between semidiurnal constituents (e.g., the spring–neap cycle) but also on shorter and irregular time scales. The result is that ~20% of semidiurnal energy is incoherent with astronomical forcing. Furthermore, the temporal variability is not spatially coherent; the spatial patterns of semidiurnal kinetic energy resemble those predicted by the numerical models during the strongest spring tides but differ from them at other times. As a result, M2 and S2 kinetic energy patterns phase locked to the astronomical forcing differ from each other. Some features of the observed spatial pattern and amplitude modulations can be qualitatively reproduced by a simple analytical model of the effects of homogeneous barotropic background currents on internal tide beams