Slip distribution and stress changes associated with the 1999 November 12, Duzce (Turkey) earthquake (M (w)=7.1)

The 1999 November 12 Duzce earthquake (M (w) = 7.1) was apparently the eastward extension of the August 17, Izmit earthquake (M (w) = 7.4). The Duzce event caused heavy damage and fatalities in the cities of Duzce and Bolu. Here a finite-fault inversion method with five discrete time windows is applied to derive the co-seismic slip distribution of the Duzce earthquake. The fault plane is best modelled as a 40 x 20 km(2) plane, with a strike of 262degrees and a dip of 65degrees to the north, and that the majority of slip occurred in two distinct patches on either side of the hypocentre, implying bilateral rupture. The possible triggering of this event by the Izmit earthquake is investigated using Coulomb stress modelling of all large events since 1943 with the inclusion of secular loading. The results show that although the Duzce rupture plane was in a stress shadow prior to the Izmit earthquake, that event caused a significant Coulomb stress load, taking the Duzce fault out of the stress shadow, which probably precipitated failure. A comparison of the mapped Coulomb stress change with the inferred slip shows no correlation between the two. Finally, the stress modelling indicates that the northern branch of the North Anatolian fault zone, beneath the Sea of Marmara towards the city of Istanbul, is presently the most highly loaded segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Onto what planes should Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved?

[1] Coulomb stress maps are produced by computing the tensorial stress perturbation due to an earthquake rupture and resolving this tensor onto planes of a particular orientation. It is often assumed that aftershock fault planes are ‘‘optimally oriented’’; in other words, the regional stress and coseismic stress change are used to compute the orientation of planes most likely to fail and the coseismic stress is resolved onto these orientations. This practice assumes that faults capable of sustaining aftershocks exist at all orientations, an assumption contradicted by the observation that aftershock focal mechanisms have strong preferred orientations consistent with mapped structural trends. Here we systematically investigate the best planes onto which stress should be resolved for the Landers, Hector Mine, Loma Prieta, and Northridge earthquakes by quantitatively comparing observed aftershock distributions with stress maps based on optimally oriented planes (two- and three-dimensional), main shock orientation, and regional structural trend. We find that the best model differs between different tectonic regions but that in all cases, models that incorporate the regional stress field tend to produce stress maps that best fit the observed aftershock distributions, although not all such models do so equally well. Our results suggest that when the regional stress field is poorly defined, or in structurally complex areas, the best model may be to fix the strike of the planes upon which the stress is to be resolved to that of the main shock but allow the dip and rake to vary

Indonesian earthquake: Earthquake risk from co-seismic stress.

Following the massive loss of life caused by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in Indonesia and its tsunami, the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous Sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern. We have calculated the distributions of co-seismic stress on this zone, as well as on the neighbouring, vertical strike-slip Sumatra fault, and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them. In particular, the increased potential for a large subduction-zone event in this region, with the concomitant risk of another tsunami, makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean all the more urgent.John McCloskey, Suleyman S.Nalbant, Sandy Steac

Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard

Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (Mw>5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb Stress Transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is <±2 bars, so the latter will rarely overwhelm the former, explaining why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. However, earthquakes do tend to occur where the cumulative coseismic and interseismic CST is positive, although there are notable examples where earthquake propagate across negatively stressed portions of faults. Hence Coulomb pre-stress calculated for non-planar faults is an ignored yet vital factor for earthquake triggering

THE USE OF LANDSAT THEMATIC MAPPER IMAGERY FOR ANALYZING LITHOLOGY AND STRUCTURE OF KORUCU-DUGLA AREA IN WESTERN TURKEY

The Korucu-Dugla study area (225 km(2)) located in western Turkey was selected for the application of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to geological studies. A wide variety of image processing techniques including; principal component analysis (PC), intensity-saturation-hue transformation (ISH), TM band ratios, and edge enhancement were applied to discriminate the lithologies and structure as well as associated areas of hydrothermal alteration. Colour composites of PC1, 2 and 3, always encoded red, green and blue respectively, PC4, 3 and 2, ISH transformation of TIW: bands 1, 3 and 5, were found most suitable for lithology and boundary discrimination in the area. A colour composite of 3/1, 4/3, and 5/7 ratio images was prepared to separate altered areas. Altered areas, which have potential for mineralization, were mapped on the constructed geological map. A number of previously unmapped faults and subunits of the formations were discriminated successfully. A lineament map and rose diagram were prepared using high-pass Laplacian filters. The rose diagram showed a good correspondence with the strike of previously mapped earthquake fault breaks. The linear features of the area have dominant directions at N 30-40 degrees E and N 60-80 degrees E. Alteration and mineralization in the Korucu-Dugla area are mostly controlled by NNE and EW trending structures

Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest Turkey and the north Aegean Sea

We have investigated the Coulomb stress interactions of 29 earthquakes (M-s greater than or equal to 6.0) that have occurred in the region of northwest Turkey and north Aegean Sea since 1912. Of these events, 23 may be related to earlier events, and 16 are clearly related to earlier events. All events after 1967 are related to previous events. Events in the early part of our time interval that show no correlation could be related to historical events as yet unidentified. In some cases, faults that have received a stress reduction from earlier events are prepared for an event by an earthquake occurring a few years before that creates a local Coulomb stress rise. Thus regions of Coulomb stress shadow can become regions where a damaging earthquake may occur. The relation between smaller events and the Coulomb stress distribution is less clear, but may be related to poor data quality and practical limitations of our modeling technique. Nonetheless, there are 4 times as many events per unit area in regions of enhanced stress than where stress is reduced. We discuss the contemporary distribution of Coulomb stress and argue that it is possible to identify the likely locations of future damaging earthquakes including identifying the most likely candidate faults

Failure stress change caused by the 1992 Erzincan earthquake (Ms=6.8)

We calculated Coulomb failure stress change caused by the March 13, 1992 Erzincan, Turkey, earthquake, and explored the relationship between failure stress and the aftershock distribution which includes the Pulumur earthquake (Ms=5.8) that occurred two days later. One of the most significant features of the Erzincan earthquake was the location of aftershocks, which did not correspond with either the eastern segment of the North Anatolian fault zone or the Ovacik fault. This feature can be explained by mapping the failure stress due to the Erzincan earthquake. The map revealed that there is a significant correlation between the aftershock distribution and the areas where static stress was raised by greater than or equal to 0.3 bar. The 1992 Erzincan earthquake raised the Coulomb failure stress about 1.4 bar at the site of the Pulumur event. This stress rise and optimum orientation of the Pulumur fault favoured its occurrence