LONG-TERM GROWTH DYNAMICS OF EMERGING ECONOMIES IN LIGHT OF JÁNOSSY’S TRENDLINE THEORY

It is a well-known fact – and the main research motivation of our paper – that at the turn of the 21st century our world economy witnessed an incipient fast development path produced by a group of emerging countries. Besides their enormous market size and raw material abundance, such countries as Brazil, Russia, India and China – known as the BRICs – have gradually become one of the most influential economic clubs of the world. Although it seemed that in the first years of the 2007-08 financial crises latter countries had been far from showing signs of downturn in contrast with some most developed economies, surprisingly, a moderate slowdown could be observed – with the exception of India – following 2014. In view of this, we are modelling the growth dynamics of the BRIC group as well as some Central Eastern European economies (CEECs) on the basis of Ferenc Jánossy’s trendline theory and aiming to detect some similar patterns in the stages of economic development of these countries. In the course of studying the long-term growth path of the BRIC country group our main research objective is to examine whether the economic growth of the most significant emerging countries might be modelled with the trendline theory of Jánossy and to analyze the post-transition growth as well as slowdown periods of the CEECs from the point of view of economic convergence. In order to identify some basic characteristics of the so-called middle-income trap episodes, as a selected methodology, we are applying chi-squared test as well as the analysis of variance (ANOVA).&nbsp

Measuring the Socioeconomic Development of Selected Balkan Countries and Hungary: A Comparative Analysis for Sustainable Growth

The present research aimed to provide an extensive comparative analysis regarding the socioeconomic development paths of three selected Balkan countries—Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania—as well as Hungary, which was originally classified as a member of the Visegrad Four group in Central and Eastern Europe. In our paper, the Balkan states were analyzed along with Hungary, as it might be observed that since the 2008–2009 economic crisis, the latter’s economy has been increasingly diverging from that of the Visegrad club in several aspects. After having undergone a protracted transition crisis escalated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, the micro-region has exhibited a truly contradictious development trajectory including periods of relatively faster economic-growth-based catching up and significant fallback stages driven by numerous endogenous or exogenous shocks. The study assumed that the region’s most crucial vulnerability is the relatively high dependence on Foreign Direct Investment that contributes to the fluctuating nature of economic growth, and also, it might be viewed as an obstacle to long-term sustainable development. In the frames of the research, the authors present an alternative comparative method for specifying the actual level of economic development of the defined country group from economic, political and social perspectives, relying on the most recent data published by international organizations, NGOs and thinktanks. As a result, an aggregate ranking was established for the four countries based on 21 individual indices, taking into consideration their dependent market economy attributes and, also, unique patterns of economic growth. Furthermore, the study also provides a dynamic evaluation of the trends concerning the narrow approach of using ten indices for a protracted period, investigating whether Hungary has been converging, diverging or stagnating with respect to the three Visegrad and Balkan economies. To what extent are Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary and Romania still affected by the historical burden of the former regime, and what perspectives might they have for realizing convergence in the near future to the more developed economies