Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems:An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra’s algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread

Mosquito age and avian malaria infection

International audienceBackground: The immune system of many insects wanes dramatically with age, leading to the general prediction that older insects should be more susceptible to infection than their younger counterparts. This prediction is however challenged by numerous studies showing that older insects are more resistant to a range of pathogens. The effect of age on susceptibility to infections is particularly relevant for mosquitoes given their role as vectors of malaria and other diseases. Despite this, the effect of mosquito age on Plasmodium susceptibility has been rarely explored, either experimentally or theoretically.Methods: Experiments were carried out using the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum and its natural vector in the field, the mosquito Culex pipiens. Both innate immune responses (number and type of circulating haemocytes) and Plasmodium susceptibility (prevalence and burden) were quantified in seven-and 17-day old females. Whether immunity or Plasmodium susceptibility are modulated by the previous blood feeding history of the mosquito was also investigated. To ensure repeatability, two different experimental blocks were carried out several weeks apart Results: Haemocyte numbers decrease drastically as the mosquitoes age. Despite this, older mosquitoes are significantly more resistant to a Plasmodium infection than their younger counterparts. Crucially, however, the age effect is entirely reversed when old mosquitoes have taken one previous non-infected blood meal.Conclusions: The results agree with previous studies showing that older insects are often more resistant to infections than younger ones. These results suggest that structural and functional alterations in mosquito physiology with age may be more important than immunity in determining the probability of a Plasmodium infection in old mosquitoes. Possible explanations for why the effect is reversed in blood-fed mosquitoes are discussed. The reversal of the age effect in blood fed mosquitoes implies that age is unlikely to have a significant impact on mosquito susceptibility in the field