Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: The isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures-including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing-might be required to reduce transmission. We aimed to estimate the reduction in transmission under different control measures across settings and how many contacts would be quarantined per day in different strategies for a given level of symptomatic case incidence. METHODS: For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40 162 UK participants. We simulated the effect of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing, and physical distancing scenarios. Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated reduction in the effective reproduction number and the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies. RESULTS: We estimated that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone: mean transmission reduction of 2% for mass random testing of 5% of the population each week, 29% for self-isolation alone of symptomatic cases within the household, 35% for self-isolation alone outside the household, 37% for self-isolation plus household quarantine, 64% for self-isolation and household quarantine with the addition of manual contact tracing of all contacts, 57% with the addition of manual tracing of acquaintances only, and 47% with the addition of app-based tracing only. If limits were placed on gatherings outside of home, school, or work, then manual contact tracing of acquaintances alone could have an effect on transmission reduction similar to that of detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where 1000 new symptomatic cases that met the definition to trigger contact tracing occurred per day, we estimated that, in most contact tracing strategies, 15 000-41 000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day. INTERPRETATION: Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimated that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number lower than 1 in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, European Commission, Royal Society, Medical Research Council

Evaluation of a standard provision versus an autonomy promotive exercise referral programme: rationale and study design

Background The National Institute of Clinical Excellence in the UK has recommended that the effectiveness of ongoing exercise referral schemes to promote physical activity should be examined in research trials. Recent empirical evidence in health care and physical activity promotion contexts provides a foundation for testing the utility of a Self Determination Theory (SDT) -based exercise referral consultation. Methods/Design Design: An exploratory cluster randomised controlled trial comparing standard provision exercise on prescription with a Self Determination Theory-based (SDT) exercise on prescription intervention. Participants: 347 people referred to the Birmingham Exercise on Prescription scheme between November 2007 and July 2008. The 13 exercise on prescription sites in Birmingham were randomised to current practice (n=7) or to the SDT-based intervention (n=6). Outcomes measured at 3 and 6-months: Minutes of moderate or vigorous physical activity per week assessed using the 7-day Physical Activity Recall; physical health: blood pressure and weight; health status measured using the Dartmouth CO-OP charts; anxiety and depression measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and vitality measured by the subjective vitality score; motivation and processes of change: perceptions of autonomy support from the advisor, satisfaction of the needs for competence, autonomy, and relatedness via physical activity, and motivational regulations for exercise. Discussion This trial will determine whether an exercise referral programme based on Self Determination Theory increases physical activity and other health outcomes compared to a standard programme and will test the underlying SDT-based process model (perceived autonomy support, need satisfaction, motivation regulations, outcomes) via structural equation modelling. Trial registration The trial is registered as Current Controlled trials ISRCTN07682833

Using an online survey of healthcare-seeking behaviour to estimate the magnitude and severity of the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic in England

Background : During the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic, the total number of symptomatic cases was estimated by combining influenza-like illness (ILI) consultations, virological surveillance and assumptions about healthcare-seeking behaviour. Changes in healthcare-seeking behaviour due to changing scientific information, media coverage and public anxiety, were not included in case estimates. The purpose of the study was to improve estimates of the number of symptomatic H1N1v cases and the case fatality rate (CFR) in England by quantifying healthcare-seeking behaviour using an internet-based survey carried out during the course of the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. Methods : We used an online survey that ran continuously from July 2009 to March 2010 to estimate the proportion of ILI cases that sought healthcare during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We used dynamic age- and gender-dependent measures of healthcare-seeking behaviour to re-interpret consultation numbers and estimate the true number of cases of symptomatic ILI in 2009 and the case fatality rate (CFR). Results : There were significant differences between age groups in healthcare usage. From the start to the end of the epidemic, the percentage of individuals with influenza-like symptoms who sought medical attention decreased from 43% to 32% (p < 0.0001). Adjusting official numbers accordingly, we estimate that there were 1.1 million symptomatic cases in England, over 320,000 (40%) more cases than previously estimated and that the autumn epidemic wave was 45% bigger than previously thought. Combining symptomatic case numbers with reported deaths leads to a reduced overall CFR estimate of 17 deaths per 100,000 cases, with the largest reduction in adults. Conclusions : Active surveillance of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which can be achieved using novel data collection methods, is vital for providing accurate real-time estimates of epidemic size and disease severity. The differences in healthcare-seeking between different population groups and changes over time have significant implications for estimates of total case numbers and the case fatality rate

Impact of Emerging Antiviral Drug Resistance on Influenza Containment and Spread: Influence of Subclinical Infection and Strategic Use of a Stockpile Containing One or Two Drugs

BACKGROUND: Wide-scale use of antiviral agents in the event of an influenza pandemic is likely to promote the emergence of drug resistance, with potentially deleterious effects for outbreak control. We explored factors promoting resistance within a dynamic infection model, and considered ways in which one or two drugs might be distributed to delay the spread of resistant strains or mitigate their impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have previously developed a novel deterministic model of influenza transmission that simulates treatment and targeted contact prophylaxis, using a limited stockpile of antiviral agents. This model was extended to incorporate subclinical infections, and the emergence of resistant virus strains under the selective pressure imposed by various uses of one or two antiviral agents. For a fixed clinical attack rate, R(0) rises with the proportion of subclinical infections thus reducing the number of infections amenable to treatment or prophylaxis. In consequence, outbreak control is more difficult, but emergence of drug resistance is relatively uncommon. Where an epidemic may be constrained by use of a single antiviral agent, strategies that combine treatment and prophylaxis are most effective at controlling transmission, at the cost of facilitating the spread of resistant viruses. If two drugs are available, using one drug for treatment and the other for prophylaxis is more effective at preventing propagation of mutant strains than either random allocation or drug cycling strategies. Our model is relatively straightforward, and of necessity makes a number of simplifying assumptions. Our results are, however, consistent with the wider body of work in this area and are able to place related research in context while extending the analysis of resistance emergence and optimal drug use within the constraints of a finite drug stockpile. CONCLUSIONS: Combined treatment and prophylaxis represents optimal use of antiviral agents to control transmission, at the cost of drug resistance. Where two drugs are available, allocating different drugs to cases and contacts is likely to be most effective at constraining resistance emergence in a pandemic scenario

Optimal functional outcome measures for assessing treatment for Dupuytren's disease: A systematic review and recommendations for future practice

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2013 Ball et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Background: Dupuytren's disease of the hand is a common condition affecting the palmar fascia, resulting in progressive flexion deformities of the digits and hence limitation of hand function. The optimal treatment remains unclear as outcomes studies have used a variety of measures for assessment. Methods: A literature search was performed for all publications describing surgical treatment, percutaneous needle aponeurotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease where outcomes had been monitored using functional measures. Results: Ninety-one studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two studies reported outcomes using patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) ranging from validated questionnaires to self-reported measures for return to work and self-rated disability. The Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score was the most utilised patient-reported function measure (n=11). Patient satisfaction was reported by eighteen studies but no single method was used consistently. Range of movement was the most frequent physical measure and was reported in all 91 studies. However, the methods of measurement and reporting varied, with seventeen different techniques being used. Other physical measures included grip and pinch strength and sensibility, again with variations in measurement protocols. The mean follow-up time ranged from 2 weeks to 17 years. Conclusions: There is little consistency in the reporting of outcomes for interventions in patients with Dupuytren’s disease, making it impossible to compare the efficacy of different treatment modalities. Although there are limitations to the existing generic patient reported outcomes measures, a combination of these together with a disease-specific questionnaire, and physical measures of active and passive individual joint Range of movement (ROM), grip and sensibility using standardised protocols should be used for future outcomes studies. As Dupuytren’s disease tends to recur following treatment as well as extend to involve other areas of the hand, follow-up times should be standardised and designed to capture both short and long term outcomes

Pharmacists in general practice: a qualitative interview case study of stakeholders’ experiences in a West London GP Federation

Background Increased patient demand for healthcare services coupled with a shortage of general practitioners necessitates changes in professional roles and service delivery. In 2016, NHS England began a three year pilot study of pharmacists in general practice, however, this is not an entirely new initiative. There is limited, current, evidence-based, UK research to inform the pilot so studies of pre-existing services must suffice until findings from a formal national evaluation are available. Methods The aim of this exploratory, descriptive interview study was to explore the experiences of stakeholders in eight general practices in the Ealing GP Federation, West London, where pharmacy services have been provided for several years. Forty-seven participants, including pharmacy team members (pre-registration and clinical pharmacists, independent prescribers and pharmacy technicians), general practitioners, patients, practice managers, practice nurses and receptionists took part in semi-structured, audio-recorded qualitative interviews which were transcribed verbatim, coded and analysed thematically to extract the issues raised by participants and the practicalities of providing pharmacy services in general practice. Results Findings are reported under the themes of Complementarity (incorporating roles, skills, education and workloads); Integration (incorporating relationships, trust and communication) and Practicalities (incorporating location and space, access, and costs). Participants reported the need for time to develop and understand the various roles, develop communication processes and build inter-professional trust. Once these were established, however, experiences were positive and included decreased workloads, increased patient safety, improved job satisfaction, improved patient relationships, and enhanced cost savings. Areas for improvement included patients’ awareness of services; pharmacists’ training; and regular, onsite access for practice staff to the pharmacy team. Conclusions Recommendations are made for the development of clear role definitions, identification of training needs, dedication of time for team building, production of educational materials for practice staff members and patients, and provision of on-site, full-time pharmacy services. Future work should focus on evaluation of various models of employing pharmacy teams in general practice; integration of pharmacists and pharmacy technicians into multidisciplinary general practice teams; relationships between local community pharmacy and general practice personnel and patients’ service and information needs. A formal national evaluation of the pilot scheme is overdue

Ratio of the Isolated Photon Cross Sections at \sqrt{s} = 630 and 1800 GeV

The inclusive cross section for production of isolated photons has been measured in \pbarp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 630$ GeV with the \D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span a transverse energy ($E_T$) range from 7-49 GeV and have pseudorapidity $|\eta| < 2.5$. This measurement is combined with to previous \D0 result at $\sqrt{s} = 1800$ GeV to form a ratio of the cross sections. Comparison of next-to-leading order QCD with the measured cross section at 630 GeV and ratio of cross sections show satisfactory agreement in most of the $E_T$ range.Comment: 7 pages. Published in Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 251805, (2001

Limits on WWZ and WW\gamma couplings from p\bar{p}\to e\nu jj X events at \sqrt{s} = 1.8 TeV

We present limits on anomalous WWZ and WW-gamma couplings from a search for WW and WZ production in p-bar p collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV. We use p-bar p -> e-nu jjX events recorded with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider during the 1992-1995 run. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 96.0+-5.1 pb^(-1). Assuming identical WWZ and WW-gamma coupling parameters, the 95% CL limits on the CP-conserving couplings are -0.33<lambda<0.36 (Delta-kappa=0) and -0.43<Delta-kappa<0.59 (lambda=0), for a form factor scale Lambda = 2.0 TeV. Limits based on other assumptions are also presented.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 2 table

Search For Heavy Pointlike Dirac Monopoles

We have searched for central production of a pair of photons with high transverse energies in $p\bar p$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.8$ TeV using $70 pb^{-1}$ of data collected with the D\O detector at the Fermilab Tevatron in 1994--1996. If they exist, virtual heavy pointlike Dirac monopoles could rescatter pairs of nearly real photons into this final state via a box diagram. We observe no excess of events above background, and set lower 95% C.L. limits of $610, 870, or 1580 GeV/c^2$ on the mass of a spin 0, 1/2, or 1 Dirac monopole.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure