Tidal stream resource characterisation in progressive versus standing wave systems

© 2018 The Author(s) Characterisations of the tidal stream resource and its variability over various timescales are crucial for the development of the tidal stream energy industry. To date, no research has compared resource sensitivity in standing wave (when peak currents occur midway between high and low water) and progressive wave (where peak currents occur at high and low water) tidal systems. Here, we compare the flow regimes of standing wave versus progressive wave systems and the associated variations in tidal stream power with applications to device deployment options (floating-platform turbines versus bottom-mounted turbines). We use a validated 3D numerical model (ROMS) of a globally-significant tidal energy shelf sea region (Irish Sea), to test the hypotheses that the influence on potential extractable energy, and suitability for different devices, may be markedly different between these contrasting systems. Power density was also calculated and compared for floating versus bottom-mounted devices using in-situ current data (ADCPs) obtained from a standing wave site and a progressive wave site. We show that progressive wave systems are characterised by velocity-asymmetry over a tidal cycle (i.e. stronger peak flows at high water than at low water), leading to power-asymmetry. Such power asymmetry was shown to have more of an effect on floating device technology, where an assumed turbine depth tracks the sea surface, in contrast to bottom-mounted technology, where the hub height is fixed at a certain position above the sea bed. Shallow, high-flow regions where tidal range is large contained up to 2.5% more power density from bottom-mounted compared with floating turbines; however, there were areas where floating devices were exposed to higher mean currents over a tidal cycle. Standing wave systems, where flow asymmetry is minimised, did not particularly favour either technology. The results highlight the requirement for detailed resource assessments to consider the vertical plane, and are applicable to all potential tidal stream energy sites

A future without forgiveness: beyond reconciliation in transitional justice

This article questions the promotion of reconciliation in transitional justice contexts. The article puts forward a critique of reconciliation in practice and questions mainstream definitions of reconciliation. The principle that these forms of reconciliation are desirable is also questioned. It is argued that examples of genuine reconciliation are difficult to find, that the promotion of reconciliation is frequently emphasised at the expense of substantive societal change, that emphasis on reconciliation (narrowly defined) risks taking agency away from those affected by conflict and that emphasis on reconciliation may obscure injustice and may promote acceptance of the status quo. The article suggests that reconciliation is not a necessary condition of, and should be de-emphasised in, transitional justice and, if it is promoted at all, that a different, less prescriptive notion of reconciliation is necessary

Causal inference based on counterfactuals

BACKGROUND: The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. DISCUSSION: This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. SUMMARY: Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept

Evolving Clustered Random Networks

We propose a Markov chain simulation method to generate simple connected random graphs with a specified degree sequence and level of clustering. The networks generated by our algorithm are random in all other respects and can thus serve as generic models for studying the impacts of degree distributions and clustering on dynamical processes as well as null models for detecting other structural properties in empirical networks

Statistical Inference for Valued-Edge Networks: Generalized Exponential Random Graph Models

Across the sciences, the statistical analysis of networks is central to the production of knowledge on relational phenomena. Because of their ability to model the structural generation of networks, exponential random graph models are a ubiquitous means of analysis. However, they are limited by an inability to model networks with valued edges. We solve this problem by introducing a class of generalized exponential random graph models capable of modeling networks whose edges are valued, thus greatly expanding the scope of networks applied researchers can subject to statistical analysis

Pneumococcal carriage in sub-Saharan Africa--a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal epidemiology varies geographically and few data are available from the African continent. We assess pneumococcal carriage from studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) before and after the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) era. METHODS: A search for pneumococcal carriage studies published before 2012 was conducted to describe carriage in sSA. The review also describes pneumococcal serotypes and assesses the impact of vaccination on carriage in this region. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies were included in this review with the majority (40.3%) from South Africa. There was considerable variability in the prevalence of carriage between studies (I-squared statistic = 99%). Carriage was higher in children and decreased with increasing age, 63.2% (95% CI: 55.6-70.8) in children less than 5 years, 42.6% (95% CI: 29.9-55.4) in children 5-15 years and 28.0% (95% CI: 19.0-37.0) in adults older than 15 years. There was no difference in the prevalence of carriage between males and females in 9/11 studies. Serotypes 19F, 6B, 6A, 14 and 23F were the five most common isolates. A meta-analysis of four randomized trials of PCV vaccination in children aged 9-24 months showed that carriage of vaccine type (VT) serotypes decreased with PCV vaccination; however, overall carriage remained the same because of a concomitant increase in non-vaccine type (NVT) serotypes. CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal carriage is generally high in the African continent, particularly in young children. The five most common serotypes in sSA are among the top seven serotypes that cause invasive pneumococcal disease in children globally. These serotypes are covered by the two PCVs recommended for routine childhood immunization by the WHO. The distribution of serotypes found in the nasopharynx is altered by PCV vaccination

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

TNF-α increases human melanoma cell invasion and migration in vitro: the role of proteolytic enzymes

Inflammatory mediators have been reported to promote malignant cell growth, invasion and metastatic potential. More specifically, we have recently reported that tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-a) increases melanoma cell attachment to extracellular matrix (ECM) substrates and invasion through fibronectin. In this study, we extend these investigations asking specifically whether the TNF-a effect on cell invasion and migration involves activation of proteolytic enzymes. We examined the effect of TNF-a on melanoma expression/activation of type IV gelatinases matrix metalloproteinases 2 and 9 (MMPs -2 and -9) and general proteolytic enzymes. Stimulation with TNF-a significantly increased both melanoma cell migration at 24 h ( þ 21%) and invasion through fibronectin ( þ 35%) but did not upregulate/activate the expression of latent MMP-2 constitutively produced by these cells and did not upregulate their general protease activity. However, the increased cell migration and invasion through fibronectin observed following stimulation with TNF-a were inhibited by the general protease inhibitor a2 macroglobulin. These findings suggest that the promigratory and proinvasive effect of TNF-a on this melanoma cell line may be mediated to some extent by induction of localised cell membrane-bound degradative enzyme activity, which is not readily detected in biochemical assays

Assessing the reliability of retrospective reports of adverse childhood experiences among adolescents with documented childhood maltreatment

The literature suggests that childhood maltreatment is related to a higher probability of developing psychopathology and disease in adulthood. However, some authors have questioned the reliability of self-reports of maltreatment, suggesting that psychopathology at the time of evaluation affects self-reports. We evaluated the reliability of the self-reports of 79 young adults who were identified in childhood by Child Protective Services by comparing two moments of evaluation. Psychological and physical symptoms were tested to evaluate their interference with the reports. We found good to excellent agreement, with no significant correlation between the changes in self-reported experiences and the changes in physical and psychological symptoms, suggesting that the reliability of reports is not related to the health state at the time of the report