Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Effects of lifestyle intervention in persons at risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus - results from a randomised, controlled trial

Background: Lifestyle change is probably the most important single action to prevent type 2 diabetes mellitus. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of a low-intensity individual lifestyle intervention by a physician and compare this to the same physician intervention combined with an interdisciplinary, group-based approach in a real-life setting. Methods: The “Finnish Diabetes Risk score” (FINDRISC) was used by GPs to identify individuals at high risk. A randomised, controlled design and an 18 month follow-up was used to assess the effect of individual lifestyle counselling by a physician (individual physician group, (IG)) every six months, with emphasis on diet and exercise, and compare this to the same individual lifestyle counselling combined with a group-based interdisciplinary program (individual and interdisciplinary group, (IIG)) provided over 16 weeks. Primary outcomes were changes in lifestyle indicated by weight reduction ≥ 5%, improvement in exercise capacity as assessed by VO2 max and diet improvements according to the Smart Diet Score (SDS). Results: 213 participants (104 in the IG and 109 in the IIG group, 50% women), with a mean age of 46 and mean body mass index 37, were included (inclusion rate > 91%) of whom 182 returned at follow-up (drop-out rate 15%). There were no significant differences in changes in lifestyle behaviours between the two groups. At baseline 57% (IG) and 53% (IIG) of participants had poor aerobic capacity and after intervention 35% and 33%, respectively, improved their aerobic capacity at least one metabolic equivalent. Unhealthy diets according to SDS were common in both groups at baseline, 61% (IG) and 60% (IIG), but uncommon at follow-up, 17% and 10%, respectively. At least 5% weight loss was achieved by 35% (IG) and 28% (IIG). In the combined IG and IIG group, at least one primary outcome was achieved by 93% while all primary outcomes were achieved by 6%. Most successful was the 78% reduction in the proportion of participants with unhealthy diet (almost 50% absolute reduction). Conclusion: It is possible to achieve important lifestyle changes in persons at risk for type 2 diabetes with modest clinical efforts. Group intervention yields no additional effects. The design of the study, with high inclusion and low dropout rates, should make the results applicable to ordinary clinical settings

Genetics of Systemic Sclerosis: An Update

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is an autoimmune disease characterized by vasculopathy, immune cell activation, and fibrosis of the skin and internal organs. Over the past few years, a role for genetics in the susceptibility for SSc has been established. This review aims to provide an update on the progress made in the past year or so within the field of SSc genetics research. This year has been of particular interest due to the publication of a large genome-wide association study, further investigations into gene–gene interactions, and the tendency to validate genetic results in functional models

Not all shellfish "allergy" is allergy!

The popularity of shellfish has been increasing worldwide, with a consequent increase in adverse reactions that can be allergic or toxic. The approximate prevalence of shellfish allergy is estimated at 0.5-2.5% of the general population, depending on degree of consumption by age and geographic regions. The manifestations of shellfish allergy vary widely, but it tends to be more severe than most other food allergens

Evidence for Involvement of Th17 Type Responses in Post Kala Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (PKDL)

Post kala azar dermal leishamniasis (PKDL), an unusual dermatosis, develops in 5–15% of apparently cured visceral leishmaniasis cases in India and in about 60% of cases in Sudan. PKDL cases assume importance since they constitute an important human reservoir for the parasite. Host immunological responses, considered as major factors in PKDL development, are poorly understood. Limited studies have been performed to explore the host immune responses and that too, restricted to a few immune parameters. The present study employed cDNA array technique that identified various host immuno-determinants including cytokines, chemokines, apoptotic and signaling molecules which were not reported previously in PKDL. In addition, we showed for the first time that Th17 responses are present during L. donovani infection in PKDL which possibly contributes significantly to disease pathogenesis by inducing TNF-α and nitric oxide production. Our findings lead to improved understanding of the host parasite interaction in terms of immune responses and pathology in tissue lesions of PKDL

Autoimmune Disease Classification by Inverse Association with SNP Alleles

With multiple genome-wide association studies (GWAS) performed across autoimmune diseases, there is a great opportunity to study the homogeneity of genetic architectures across autoimmune disease. Previous approaches have been limited in the scope of their analysis and have failed to properly incorporate the direction of allele-specific disease associations for SNPs. In this work, we refine the notion of a genetic variation profile for a given disease to capture strength of association with multiple SNPs in an allele-specific fashion. We apply this method to compare genetic variation profiles of six autoimmune diseases: multiple sclerosis (MS), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), autoimmune thyroid disease (ATD), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), Crohn's disease (CD), and type 1 diabetes (T1D), as well as five non-autoimmune diseases. We quantify pair-wise relationships between these diseases and find two broad clusters of autoimmune disease where SNPs that make an individual susceptible to one class of autoimmune disease also protect from diseases in the other autoimmune class. We find that RA and AS form one such class, and MS and ATD another. We identify specific SNPs and genes with opposite risk profiles for these two classes. We furthermore explore individual SNPs that play an important role in defining similarities and differences between disease pairs. We present a novel, systematic, cross-platform approach to identify allele-specific relationships between disease pairs based on genetic variation as well as the individual SNPs which drive the relationships. While recognizing similarities between diseases might lead to identifying novel treatment options, detecting differences between diseases previously thought to be similar may point to key novel disease-specific genes and pathways

Developmental Stability: A Major Role for Cyclin G in Drosophila melanogaster

Morphological consistency in metazoans is remarkable given the pervasive occurrence of genetic variation, environmental effects, and developmental noise. Developmental stability, the ability to reduce developmental noise, is a fundamental property of multicellular organisms, yet its genetic bases remains elusive. Imperfect bilateral symmetry, or fluctuating asymmetry, is commonly used to estimate developmental stability. We observed that Drosophila melanogaster overexpressing Cyclin G (CycG) exhibit wing asymmetry clearly detectable by sight. Quantification of wing size and shape using geometric morphometrics reveals that this asymmetry is a genuine—but extreme—fluctuating asymmetry. Overexpression of CycG indeed leads to a 40-fold increase of wing fluctuating asymmetry, which is an unprecedented effect, for any organ and in any animal model, either in wild populations or mutants. This asymmetry effect is not restricted to wings, since femur length is affected as well. Inactivating CycG by RNAi also induces fluctuating asymmetry but to a lesser extent. Investigating the cellular bases of the phenotypic effects of CycG deregulation, we found that misregulation of cell size is predominant in asymmetric flies. In particular, the tight negative correlation between cell size and cell number observed in wild-type flies is impaired when CycG is upregulated. Our results highlight the role of CycG in the control of developmental stability in D. melanogaster. Furthermore, they show that wing developmental stability is normally ensured via compensatory processes between cell growth and cell proliferation. We discuss the possible role of CycG as a hub in a genetic network that controls developmental stability