Coevolution in a One Predator–Two Prey System

Background: Our understanding of coevolution in a predator–prey system is based mostly on pair-wise interactions. Methodology and Principal Findings: Here I analyze a one-predator–two-prey system in which the predator’s attack ability and the defense abilities of the prey all evolve. The coevolutionary consequences can differ dramatically depending on the initial trait value and the timing of the alternative prey’s invasion into the original system. If the invading prey species has relatively low defense ability when it invades, its defense is likely to evolve to a lower level, stabilizing the population dynamics. In contrast, if when it invades its defense ability is close to that of the resident prey, its defense can evolve to a higher level and that of the resident prey may suddenly cease to evolve, destabilizing the population dynamics. Destabilization due to invasion is likely when the invading prey is adaptively superior (evolution of its defense is less constrained and fast), and it can also occur in a broad condition even when the invading prey is adaptively inferior. In addition, invasion into a resident system far from equilibrium characterized by population oscillations is likely to cause further destabilization

Bayesian estimation of Lassa virus epidemiological parameters: Implications for spillover prevention using wildlife vaccination

Lassa virus is a significant burden on human health throughout its endemic region in West Africa, with most human infections the result of spillover from the primary rodent reservoir of the virus, the natal multimammate mouse, M. natalensis. Here we develop a Bayesian methodology for estimating epidemiological parameters of Lassa virus within its rodent reservoir and for generating probabilistic predictions for the efficacy of rodent vaccination programs. Our approach uses Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to integrate mechanistic mathematical models, remotely-sensed precipitation data, and Lassa virus surveillance data from rodent populations. Using simulated data, we show that our method accurately estimates key model parameters, even when surveillance data are available from only a relatively small number of points in space and time. Applying our method to previously published data from two villages in Guinea estimates the time-averaged R0 of Lassa virus to be 1.74 and 1.54 for rodent populations in the villages of Bantou and Tanganya, respectively. Using the posterior distribution for model parameters derived from these Guinean populations, we evaluate the likely efficacy of vaccination programs relying on distribution of vaccine-laced baits. Our results demonstrate that effective and durable reductions in the risk of Lassa virus spillover into the human population will require repeated distribution of large quantities of vaccine

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.</jats:p

Species Invasion History Influences Community Evolution in a Tri-Trophic Food Web Model

Background: Recent experimental studies have demonstrated the importance of invasion history for evolutionary formation of community. However, only few theoretical studies on community evolution have focused on such views. Methodology and Principal Findings: We used a tri-trophic food web model to analyze the coevolutionary effects of ecological invasions by a mutant and by a predator and/or resource species of a native consumer species community and found that ecological invasions can lead to various evolutionary histories. The invasion of a predator makes multiple evolutionary community histories possible, and the evolutionary history followed can determine both the invasion success of the predator into the native community and the fate of the community. A slight difference in the timing of an ecological invasion can lead to a greatly different fate. In addition, even greatly different community histories can converge as a result of environmental changes such as a predator trait shift or a productivity change. Furthermore, the changes to the evolutionary history may be irreversible. Conclusions and Significance: Our modeling results suggest that the timing of ecological invasion of a species into a focal community can largely change the evolutionary consequences of the community. Our approach based on adaptive dynamics will be a useful tool to understand the effect of invasion history on evolutionary formation of community

Evolutionary Epidemiology of Drug-Resistance in Space

The spread of drug-resistant parasites erodes the efficacy of therapeutic treatments against many infectious diseases and is a major threat of the 21st century. The evolution of drug-resistance depends, among other things, on how the treatments are administered at the population level. “Resistance management” consists of finding optimal treatment strategies that both reduce the consequence of an infection at the individual host level, and limit the spread of drug-resistance in the pathogen population. Several studies have focused on the effect of mixing different treatments, or of alternating them in time. Here, we analyze another strategy, where the use of the drug varies spatially: there are places where no one receives any treatment. We find that such a spatial heterogeneity can totally prevent the rise of drug-resistance, provided that the size of treated patches is below a critical threshold. The range of parasite dispersal, the relative costs and benefits of being drug-resistant compared to being drug-sensitive, and the duration of an infection with drug-resistant parasites are the main factors determining the value of this threshold. Our analysis thus provides some general guidance regarding the optimal spatial use of drugs to prevent or limit the evolution of drug-resistance

Spatial Geographic Mosaic in an Aquatic Predator-Prey Network

The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution predicts 1) spatial variation in predatory structures as well as prey defensive traits, and 2) trait matching in some areas and trait mismatching in others mediated by gene flow. We examined gene flow and documented spatial variation in crushing resistance in the freshwater snails Mexipyrgus churinceanus, Mexithauma quadripaludium, Nymphophilus minckleyi, and its relationship to the relative frequency of the crushing morphotype in the trophically polymorphic fish Herichthys minckleyi. Crushing resistance and the frequency of the crushing morphotype did show spatial variation among 11 naturally replicated communities in the Cuatro Ciénegas valley in Mexico where these species are all endemic. The variation in crushing resistance among populations was not explained by geographic proximity or by genetic similarity in any species. We detected clear phylogeographic patterns and limited gene flow for the snails but not for the fish. Gene flow among snail populations in Cuatro Ciénegas could explain the mosaic of local divergence in shell strength and be preventing the fixation of the crushing morphotype in Herichthys minckleyi. Finally, consistent with trait matching across the mosaic, the frequency of the fish morphotype was negatively correlated with shell crushing resistance likely reflecting the relative disadvantage of the crushing morphotype in communities where the snails exhibit relatively high crushing resistance

Evolution of Competitive Ability: An Adaptation Speed vs. Accuracy Tradeoff Rooted in Gene Network Size

Ecologists have increasingly come to understand that evolutionary change on short time-scales can alter ecological dynamics (and vice-versa), and this idea is being incorporated into community ecology research programs. Previous research has suggested that the size and topology of the gene network underlying a quantitative trait should constrain or facilitate adaptation and thereby alter population dynamics. Here, I consider a scenario in which two species with different genetic architectures compete and evolve in fluctuating environments. An important trade-off emerges between adaptive accuracy and adaptive speed, driven by the size of the gene network underlying the ecologically-critical trait and the rate of environmental change. Smaller, scale-free networks confer a competitive advantage in rapidly-changing environments, but larger networks permit increased adaptive accuracy when environmental change is sufficiently slow to allow a species time to adapt. As the differences in network characteristics increase, the time-to-resolution of competition decreases. These results augment and refine previous conclusions about the ecological implications of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits, emphasizing a role of adaptive accuracy. Along with previous work, in particular that considering the role of gene network connectivity, these results provide a set of expectations for what we may observe as the field of ecological genomics develops

High genetic diversity in a potentially vulnerable tropical tree species despite extreme habitat loss

10.1371/journal.pone.0082632PLoS ONE812-POLN

Sympatric and Allopatric Divergence of MHC Genes in Threespine Stickleback

Parasites can strongly affect the evolution of their hosts, but their effects on host diversification are less clear. In theory, contrasting parasite communities in different foraging habitats could generate divergent selection on hosts and promote ecological speciation. Immune systems are costly to maintain, adaptable, and an important component of individual fitness. As a result, immune system genes, such as those of the Major Histocompatability Complex (MHC), can change rapidly in response to parasite-mediated selection. In threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), as well as in other vertebrates, MHC genes have been linked with female mating preference, suggesting that divergent selection acting on MHC genes might influence speciation. Here, we examined genetic variation at MHC Class II loci of sticklebacks from two lakes with a limnetic and benthic species pair, and two lakes with a single species. In both lakes with species pairs, limnetics and benthics differed in their composition of MHC alleles, and limnetics had fewer MHC alleles per individual than benthics. Similar to the limnetics, the allopatric population with a pelagic phenotype had few MHC alleles per individual, suggesting a correlation between MHC genotype and foraging habitat. Using a simulation model we show that the diversity and composition of MHC alleles in a sympatric species pair depends on the amount of assortative mating and on the strength of parasite-mediated selection in adjacent foraging habitats. Our results indicate parallel divergence in the number of MHC alleles between sympatric stickleback species, possibly resulting from the contrasting parasite communities in littoral and pelagic habitats of lakes