Winner of the 2016 Lewis Fry Richardson Award, Paul Collier: Clarity and Compassion in the Study of Civil War

The award committee has chosen Paul Collier as the winner of the 2016 Lewis Fry Richardson Award in particular in recognition of his contributions to the study of civil war. His famous paper on "Greed and grievance in civil war" - published with Anke Hoeffler in 2004, but circulating in draft form since the late 1990s - has been cited over 1000 times in the Web of Science as of mid-July 2016, and has over 5000 citations in Google Scholar. The jury also highlighted the key role of Collier's work reviving academic research on civil war in the late 1990s, the broader impact of the World Bank group led by Collier in spurring advances in the field as well as stimulating important data collection efforts, as well as his central role in popularizing insights of academic research to a broader audience

Assemblage urbanism: the role of heritage in urban placemaking

Purpose: The paper explores the potential value of urban assemblage theory as a conceptual framework for understanding the role heritage has in social sustainable urban placemaking. The authors conceptualise urban placemaking as a dynamic and complex social assemblage. Heritage is one of the many dimensions of such a complex and dynamic urban assembly. Based on the approach to urban assemblage theory, the authors aim to uncover how postindustrial city-making unfolds. When approaching the case studies, the authors ask the following: Whose city for which citizens are visible through the selected case studies? How is social sustainability achieved through heritage in urban placemaking? Design/methodology/approach: The main research material is derived from theoretical literature and the testing of an assemblage methodological approach through three Norwegian urban regeneration case studies where heritage partake in urban placemaking. The three case studies are the Tukthus wall (what is left of an 19th century old prison), the Vulkan neighbourhood (an 19th century industrial working area) and Sørengkaia (an 19th century industrial harbour area) in Oslo, Norway. The three case studies are representing urban regeneration projects which are common worldwide, and not at least in a European context. Findings: The paper reveals the dynamic factors and processes at play in urban placemaking, which has its own distinct character by the uses of heritage in each of the case study areas. Placemaking could produce “closed” systems which are stable in accordance with its original functions, or they could be “open” systems affected by the various drivers of change. The paper shows how these forces are depending on two sets of binary forces at play in urban placemaking: forces of “assemblages” co-creating a place versus destabilising forces of “disassembly” which is redefining the place as a process affected by reassembled placemaking. Research limitations/implications: For research, the authors focus on the implications this paper has for the field of urban heritage studies as it provides a useful framework to capture the dynamic complexity of urban heritage areas. Practical implications: For practice, the authors state that the paper can provide a useful platform for dialogue and critical thinking on strategies being planned. Social implications: For society, the paper promotes the significance in terms of fostering an inclusive way of thinking and planning for urban heritage futures. Originality/value: The paper outlines dynamics of urban regeneration through heritage which are significant for understanding urban transformation as value for offering practical solutions to social problems in urban planning. The assemblage methodological approach (1) makes awareness of the dynamic processes at play in urban placemaking and makes the ground for mapping issue at stake in urban placemaking; (2) becomes a source for modelling urban regeneration through heritage by defining a conceptual framework of dynamic interactions in urban placemaking; and (3) defines a critically reflexive tool for evaluating good versus bad (heritage-led) urban development projects

It Takes Two

Theories of conflict emphasize dyadic interaction, yet existing empirical studies of civil war focus largely on state attributes and pay little attention to nonstate antagonists. We recast civil war in a dyadic perspective, and consider how nonstate actor attributes and their relationship to the state influence conflict dynamics. We argue that strong rebels, who pose a military challenge to the government, are likely to lead to short wars and concessions. Conflicts where rebels seem weak can become prolonged if rebels can operate in the periphery so as to defy a government victory yet are not strong enough to extract concessions. Conflicts should be shorter when potential insurgents can rely on alternative political means to violence. We examine these hypotheses in a dyadic analysis of civil war duration and outcomes, using new data on nonstate actors and conflict attributes, finding support for many of our conjectures. </jats:p

Transposable Element Dynamics among Asymbiotic and Ectomycorrhizal Amanita Fungi

Transposable elements (TEs) are ubiquitous inhabitants of eukaryotic genomes and their proliferation and dispersal shape genome architectures and diversity. Nevertheless, TE dynamics are often explored for one species at a time and are rarely considered in ecological contexts. Recent work with plant pathogens suggests a link between symbiosis and TE abundance. The genomes of pathogenic fungi appear to house an increased abundance of TEs, and TEs are frequently associated with the genes involved in symbiosis. To investigate whether this pattern is general, and relevant to mutualistic plant-fungal symbioses, we sequenced the genomes of related asymbiotic (AS) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) Amanita fungi. Using methods developed to interrogate both assembled and unassembled sequences, we characterized and quantified TEs across three AS and three ECM species, including the AS outgroup Volvariella volvacea. The ECM genomes are characterized by abundant numbers of TEs, an especially prominent feature of unassembled sequencing libraries. Increased TE activity in ECM species is also supported by phylogenetic analysis of the three most abundant TE superfamilies; phylogenies revealed many radiations within contemporary ECM species. However, the AS species Amanita thiersii also houses extensive amplifications of elements, highlighting the influence of additional evolutionary parameters on TE abundance. Our analyses provide further evidence for a link between symbiotic associations among plants and fungi, and increased TE activity, while highlighting the importance individual species’ natural histories may have in shaping genome architecture

The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance model for civil war forecasts with event data

© The Author(s) 2017. We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting to forecast civil war using measures reflecting plausible motivation and grievances. Buhaug, Cederman, and Gleditsch predict the risk of civil war using a horizontal inequality model with measures reflecting motivation and relevant group characteristics at the country level. The predictions from their model outperform in an out-of-sample forecast conventional countrylevel models of civil war, emphasizing vertical inequality and country characteristics. However, most grievance measures change little over time. We surmise that a model reflecting potential motivation for conflict can be improved with more dynamic information on mobilization and the behavior of actors. Our conjecture receives some support in the empirical analysis, where we consider both conflict onset and termination over territorial and governmental incompatibilities in the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data, and find some evidence that event data can help improve forecasts. Moreover, models with the original grievance measures do better than purely event based models, supporting our claim that both structure and event based components can add value to conflict prediction models. However, the contribution of events to improving predictive power is modest and not entirely consistent, and some types of conflict events seem easier to forecast than others

Necrotizing soft tissue infections - a multicentre, prospective observational study (INFECT) : Protocol and statistical analysis plan

Background: The INFECT project aims to advance our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms in necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs). The INFECT observational study is part of the INFECT project with the aim of studying the clinical profile of patients with NSTIs and correlating these to patient-important outcomes. With this protocol and statistical analysis plan we describe the methods used to obtain data and the details of the planned analyses. Methods: The INFECT study is a multicentre, prospective observational cohort study. Patients with NSTIs are enrolled in five Scandinavian hospitals, which are all referral centres for NSTIs. The primary outcomes are the descriptive variables of the patients. Secondary outcomes include identification of factors associated with 90-day mortality and amputation; associations between affected body part, maximum skin defect and Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score and 90-day mortality; 90-day mortality in patients with and without acute kidney injury (AKI) and LRINEC score of six and above or below six; and association between affected body part at arrival and microbiological findings. Exploratory outcomes include univariate analyses of baseline characteristics associations with 90-day mortality. The statistical analyses will be conducted in accordance with the predefined statistical analysis plan. Conclusion: Necrotizing soft tissue infections result in severe morbidity and mortality. The INFECT study will be the largest prospective study in patients with NSTIs to date and will provide important data for clinicians, researchers and policy makers on the characteristics and outcomes of these patients.</p

The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supplementary materia