Forecasting in the light of Big Data

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on the first principles, and the naive inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the availability of unprecedented amounts of data and increasingly sophisticated algorithmic analytic techniques. The purpose of this note is to assess critically the role of big data in reshaping the key aspects of forecasting and in particular the claim that bigger data leads to better predictions. Drawing on the representative example of weather forecasts we argue that this is not generally the case. We conclude by suggesting that a clever and context-dependent compromise between modelling and quantitative analysis stands out as the best forecasting strategy, as anticipated nearly a century ago by Richardson and von Neumann

Helicity at Photospheric and Chromospheric Heights

In the solar atmosphere the twist parameter $\alpha$ has the same sign as magnetic helicity. It has been observed using photospheric vector magnetograms that negative/positive helicity is dominant in the northern/southern hemisphere of the Sun. Chromospheric features show dextral/sinistral dominance in the northern/southern hemisphere and sigmoids observed in X-rays also have a dominant sense of reverse-S/forward-S in the northern/southern hemisphere. It is of interest whether individual features have one-to-one correspondence in terms of helicity at different atmospheric heights. We use UBF \Halpha images from the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST) and other \Halpha data from Udaipur Solar Observatory and Big Bear Solar Observatory. Near-simultaneous vector magnetograms from the DST are used to establish one-to-one correspondence of helicity at photospheric and chromospheric heights. We plan to extend this investigation with more data including coronal intensities.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 1 table To appear in "Magnetic Coupling between the Interior and the Atmosphere of the Sun", eds. S.S. Hasan and R.J. Rutten, Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Berlin, 200

Nanomechanical Detection of Itinerant Electron Spin Flip

Spin is an intrinsically quantum property, characterized by angular momentum. A change in the spin state is equivalent to a change in the angular momentum or mechanical torque. This spin-induced torque has been invoked as the intrinsic mechanism in experiments ranging from the measurements of angular momentum of photons g-factor of metals and magnetic resonance to the magnetization reversal in magnetic multi-layers A spin-polarized current introduced into a nonmagnetic nanowire produces a torque associated with the itinerant electron spin flip. Here, we report direct measurement of this mechanical torque and itinerant electron spin polarization in an integrated nanoscale torsion oscillator, which could yield new information on the itinerancy of the d-band electrons. The unprecedented torque sensitivity of 10^{-22} N m/ \sqrt{Hz} may enable applications for spintronics, precision measurements of CP-violating forces, untwisting of DNA and torque generating molecules.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures. visit http://nano.bu.edu/ for related paper

Adults who are more anxious and were anxiously attached as children report later first memories

Here, we examined retrospective reports of adults’ earliest autobiographical memory, the age of this report and whether the reported age was associated with exposure to early life adversity, current anxiety and childhood attachment. Across four studies, we found that reporting a later ‘earliest’ memory was associated with higher self-reported anxiety in both American (Studies 1, 2 and 4) and Australian (Study 3) samples. Furthermore, in Studies 2–4, we found that reporting a later earliest memory uniquely predicted anxiety when controlling for number of adverse childhood events (a risk factor for the development of anxiety). In Study 4, we established that this relation is partially mediated by childhood anxious attachment. Although we consistently demonstrated that later earliest memories were associated with current anxiety, we found little evidence for a relation between reported age at the time of earliest memory and childhood adversity. We also found no evidence of gender differences in the associations of interest. These results suggest that poorer memory of early childhood is associated with greater childhood anxious attachment and anxiety in adulthood. The implications of this work are discussed in terms of the adaptive nature of autobiographical memory and the development of a coherent life narrative

Maternal care, infant fear memory retention, and the moderating role of variations in separation-induced ultrasonic vocalizations

Individual differences in parental care predict variations in offspring anxiety across species. Here, we examined whether between- and within-litter variations in maternal licking (a measure of rodent maternal care) predict infant rats’ retention of an aversive association (a predictor of later anxiety-like behavior) and whether the relationship between maternal licking and infant fear memory is moderated by variations in infants’ solicitation of maternal care. Unique marks were drawn on each pup, coded for fading, and touched up daily across the first week of life. Mark fading was used as an index of maternal licking where greater fading suggested more maternal licking the previous day. Separation-induced ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) were recorded to measure individual differences in solicitation of maternal care. Infants were fear conditioned at postnatal day (P) 17 and tested for fear of the conditioned stimulus (CS) 1 week later. Across litters, mark fading negatively predicted CS-elicited fear at test for male, but not female, offspring. This relationship was moderated by number of USVs emitted at P1, such that mark fading only predicted CS-elicited fear for males that emitted a low number of USVs. These results suggest that offspring solicitation may moderate the relationship between maternal care and fear/anxiety

Collaborative Gaze Channelling for Improved Cooperation During Robotic Assisted Surgery

The use of multiple robots for performing complex tasks is becoming a common practice for many robot applications. When different operators are involved, effective cooperation with anticipated manoeuvres is important for seamless, synergistic control of all the end-effectors. In this paper, the concept of Collaborative Gaze Channelling (CGC) is presented for improved control of surgical robots for a shared task. Through eye tracking, the fixations of each operator are monitored and presented in a shared surgical workspace. CGC permits remote or physically separated collaborators to share their intention by visualising the eye gaze of their counterparts, and thus recovers, to a certain extent, the information of mutual intent that we rely upon in a vis-à-vis working setting. In this study, the efficiency of surgical manipulation with and without CGC for controlling a pair of bimanual surgical robots is evaluated by analysing the level of coordination of two independent operators. Fitts' law is used to compare the quality of movement with or without CGC. A total of 40 subjects have been recruited for this study and the results show that the proposed CGC framework exhibits significant improvement (p<0.05) on all the motion indices used for quality assessment. This study demonstrates that visual guidance is an implicit yet effective way of communication during collaborative tasks for robotic surgery. Detailed experimental validation results demonstrate the potential clinical value of the proposed CGC framework. © 2012 Biomedical Engineering Society.link_to_subscribed_fulltex

Smart homes and their users:a systematic analysis and key challenges

Published research on smart homes and their users is growing exponentially, yet a clear understanding of who these users are and how they might use smart home technologies is missing from a field being overwhelmingly pushed by technology developers. Through a systematic analysis of peer-reviewed literature on smart homes and their users, this paper takes stock of the dominant research themes and the linkages and disconnects between them. Key findings within each of nine themes are analysed, grouped into three: (1) views of the smart home-functional, instrumental, socio-technical; (2) users and the use of the smart home-prospective users, interactions and decisions, using technologies in the home; and (3) challenges for realising the smart home-hardware and software, design, domestication. These themes are integrated into an organising framework for future research that identifies the presence or absence of cross-cutting relationships between different understandings of smart homes and their users. The usefulness of the organising framework is illustrated in relation to two major concerns-privacy and control-that have been narrowly interpreted to date, precluding deeper insights and potential solutions. Future research on smart homes and their users can benefit by exploring and developing cross-cutting relationships between the research themes identified

WNT signaling regulates self-renewal and differentiation of prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics

Prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics were identified in human prostate cancer cell lines by their ability to form from single cells self-renewing prostaspheres in non-adherent cultures. Prostaspheres exhibited heterogeneous expression of proliferation, differentiation and stem cell-associated makers CD44, ABCG2 and CD133. Treatment with WNT inhibitors reduced both prostasphere size and self-renewal. In contrast, addition of Wnt3a caused increased prostasphere size and self-renewal, which was associated with a significant increase in nuclear Β-catenin, keratin 18, CD133 and CD44 expression. As a high proportion of LNCaP and C4-2B cancer cells express androgen receptor we determined the effect of the androgen receptor antagonist bicalutamide. Androgen receptor inhibition reduced prostasphere size and expression of PSA, but did not inhibit prostasphere formation. These effects are consistent with the androgen-independent self-renewal of cells with stem cell characteristics and the androgen-dependent proliferation of transit amplifying cells. As the canonical WNT signaling effector Β-catenin can also associate with the androgen receptor, we propose a model for tumour propagation involving a balance between WNT and androgen receptor activity. That would affect the self-renewal of a cancer cell with stem cell characteristics and drive transit amplifying cell proliferation and differentiation. In conclusion, we provide evidence that WNT activity regulates the self-renewal of prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics independently of androgen receptor activity. Inhibition of WNT signaling therefore has the potential to reduce the self-renewal of prostate cancer cells with stem cell characteristics and improve the therapeutic outcome.Peer reviewe

Clinical Implication of Targeting of Cancer Stem Cells

The existence of cancer stem cells (CSCs) is receiving increasing interest particularly due to its potential ability to enter clinical routine. Rapid advances in the CSC field have provided evidence for the development of more reliable anticancer therapies in the future. CSCs typically only constitute a small fraction of the total tumor burden; however, they harbor self-renewal capacity and appear to be relatively resistant to conventional therapies. Recent therapeutic approaches aim to eliminate or differentiate CSCs or to disrupt the niches in which they reside. Better understanding of the biological characteristics of CSCs as well as improved preclinical and clinical trials targeting CSCs may revolutionize the treatment of many cancers. Copyright (c) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

The complete genome and proteome of laribacter hongkongensis reveal potential mechanisms for adaptations to different temperatures and habitats

Laribacter hongkongensis is a newly discovered Gram-negative bacillus of the Neisseriaceae family associated with freshwater fish-borne gastroenteritis and traveler's diarrhea. The complete genome sequence of L. hongkongensis HLHK9, recovered from an immunocompetent patient with severe gastroenteritis, consists of a 3,169-kb chromosome with G+C content of 62.35%. Genome analysis reveals different mechanisms potentially important for its adaptation to diverse habitats of human and freshwater fish intestines and freshwater environments. The gene contents support its phenotypic properties and suggest that amino acids and fatty acids can be used as carbon sources. The extensive variety of transporters, including multidrug efflux and heavy metal transporters as well as genes involved in chemotaxis, may enable L. hongkongensis to survive in different environmental niches. Genes encoding urease, bile salts efflux pump, adhesin, catalase, superoxide dismutase, and other putative virulence factors-such as hemolysins, RTX toxins, patatin-like proteins, phospholipase A1, and collagenases-are present. Proteomes of L. hongkongensis HLHK9 cultured at 37°C (human body temperature) and 20°C (freshwater habitat temperature) showed differential gene expression, including two homologous copies of argB, argB-20, and argB-37, which encode two isoenzymes of N-acetyl-L-glutamate kinase (NAGK)-NAGK-20 and NAGK-37-in the arginine biosynthesis pathway. NAGK-20 showed higher expression at 20°C, whereas NAGK-37 showed higher expression at 37°C. NAGK-20 also had a lower optimal temperature for enzymatic activities and was inhibited by arginine probably as negative-feedback control. Similar duplicated copies of argB are also observed in bacteria from hot springs such as Thermus thermophilus, Deinococcus geothermalis, Deinococcus radiodurans, and Roseiflexus castenholzii, suggesting that similar mechanisms for temperature adaptation may be employed by other bacteria. Genome and proteome analysis of L. hongkongensis revealed novel mechanisms for adaptations to survival at different temperatures and habitats. Copyright: © 2009 Woo et al.published_or_final_versio