Predictors of mortality of patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admitted to an intensive care unit: A one year study

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) commonly require hospitalization and admission to intensive care unit (ICU). It is useful to identify patients at the time of admission who are likely to have poor outcome. This study was carried out to define the predictors of mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD and to device a scoring system using the baseline physiological variables for prognosticating these patients. METHODS: Eighty-two patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to COPD admitted to medical ICU over a one-year period were included. Clinical and demographic profile at the time of admission to ICU including APACHE II score and Glasgow coma scale were recorded at the time of admission to ICU. In addition, acid base disorders, renal functions, liver functions and serum albumin, were recorded at the time of presentation. Primary outcome measure was hospital mortality. RESULTS: Invasive ventilation was required in 69 patients (84.1%). Fifty-two patients survived to hospital discharge (63.4%). APACHE II score at the time of admission to ICU {odds ratio (95 % CI): 1.32 (1.138–1.532); p < 0.001} and serum albumin (done within 24 hours of admission) {odds ratio (95 % CI): 0.114 (0.03-0.432); p = 0.001}. An equation, constructed using the adjusted odds ratio for the two parameters, had an area under the ROC curve of 91.3%. For the choice of cut-off, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value for predicting outcome was 90%, 86.5%, 79.4% and 93.7%. CONCLUSION: APACHE II score at admission and SA levels with in 24 hrs after admission are independent predictors of mortality for patients with COPD admitted to ICU. The equation derived from these two parameters is useful for predicting outcome of these patients

Can adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes be predicted when blood pressure becomes elevated? Secondary analyses from the CHIPS (Control of Hypertension In Pregnancy Study) randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: For women with chronic or gestational hypertension in CHIPS (Control of Hypertension In Pregnancy Study, NCT01192412), we aimed to examine whether clinical predictors collected at randomization could predict adverse outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a planned, secondary analysis of data from the 987 women in the CHIPS Trial. Logistic regression was used to examine the impact of 19 candidate predictors on the probability of adverse perinatal (pregnancy loss or high level neonatal care for >48 h, or birthweight <10th percentile) or maternal outcomes (severe hypertension, preeclampsia, or delivery at <34 or <37 weeks). A model containing all candidate predictors was used to start the stepwise regression process based on goodness of fit as measured by the Akaike information criterion. For face validity, these variables were forced into the model: treatment group ("less tight" or "tight" control), antihypertensive type at randomization, and blood pressure within 1 week before randomization. Continuous variables were represented continuously or dichotomized based on the smaller p-value in univariate analyses. An area-under-the-receiver-operating-curve (AUC ROC) of ≥0.70 was taken to reflect a potentially useful model. RESULTS: Point estimates for AUC ROC were <0.70 for all but severe hypertension (0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.74) and delivery at <34 weeks (0.71, 95% CI 0.66-0.75). Therefore, no model warranted further assessment of performance. CONCLUSIONS: CHIPS data suggest that when women with chronic hypertension develop an elevated blood pressure in pregnancy, or formerly normotensive women develop new gestational hypertension, maternal and current pregnancy clinical characteristics cannot predict adverse outcomes in the index pregnancy

The Cost Implications of Less Tight Versus Tight Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy (CHIPS Trial).

The CHIPS randomized controlled trial (Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy Study) found no difference in the primary perinatal or secondary maternal outcomes between planned "less tight" (target diastolic 100 mm Hg) and "tight" (target diastolic 85 mm Hg) blood pressure management strategies among women with chronic or gestational hypertension. This study examined which of these management strategies is more or less costly from a third-party payer perspective. A total of 981 women with singleton pregnancies and nonsevere, nonproteinuric chronic or gestational hypertension were randomized at 14 to 33 weeks to less tight or tight control. Resources used were collected from 94 centers in 15 countries and costed as if the trial took place in each of 3 Canadian provinces as a cost-sensitivity analysis. Eleven hospital ward and 24 health service costs were obtained from a similar trial and provincial government health insurance schedules of medical benefits. The mean total cost per woman-infant dyad was higher in less tight versus tight control, but the difference in mean total cost (DM) was not statistically significant in any province: Ontario ($30 191.62 versus$24 469.06; DM $5723, 95$296 to $12 272; P=0.0725); British Columbia ($30 593.69 versus $24 776.51; DM$5817; 95% confidence interval, -$385 to$12 349; P=0.0725); or Alberta ($31 510.72 versus$25 510.49; DM $6000.23; 95$154 to $12 781; P=0.0637). Tight control may benefit women without increasing risk to neonates (as shown in the main CHIPS trial), without additional (and possibly lower) cost to the healthcare system. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01192412

Prediction of adverse maternal outcomes in pre-eclampsia: development and validation of the fullPIERS model.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal deaths. These deaths mainly result from eclampsia, uncontrolled hypertension, or systemic inflammation. We developed and validated the fullPIERS model with the aim of identifying the risk of fatal or life-threatening complications in women with pre-eclampsia within 48 h of hospital admission for the disorder. METHODS: We developed and internally validated the fullPIERS model in a prospective, multicentre study in women who were admitted to tertiary obstetric centres with pre-eclampsia or who developed pre-eclampsia after admission. The outcome of interest was maternal mortality or other serious complications of pre-eclampsia. Routinely reported and informative variables were included in a stepwise backward elimination regression model to predict the adverse maternal outcome. We assessed performance using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Standard bootstrapping techniques were used to assess potential overfitting. FINDINGS: 261 of 2023 women with pre-eclampsia had adverse outcomes at any time after hospital admission (106 [5%] within 48 h of admission). Predictors of adverse maternal outcome included gestational age, chest pain or dyspnoea, oxygen saturation, platelet count, and creatinine and aspartate transaminase concentrations. The fullPIERS model predicted adverse maternal outcomes within 48 h of study eligibility (AUC ROC 0·88, 95% CI 0·84-0·92). There was no significant overfitting. fullPIERS performed well (AUC ROC >0·7) up to 7 days after eligibility. INTERPRETATION: The fullPIERS model identifies women at increased risk of adverse outcomes up to 7 days before complications arise and can thereby modify direct patient care (eg, timing of delivery, place of care), improve the design of clinical trials, and inform biomedical investigations related to pre-eclampsia. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research; UNDP/UNFPA/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development, and Research Training in Human Reproduction; Preeclampsia Foundation; International Federation of Obstetricians and Gynecologists; Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research; and Child and Family Research Institute

Predictors of persistently positive Mycobacterium-tuberculosis-specific interferon-gamma responses in the serial testing of health care workers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data on the performance of Mycobacterium-tuberculosis-specific interferon-(IFN)-γ release assays (IGRAs) in the serial testing of health care workers (HCWs) is limited. The objective of the present study was to determine the frequency of IGRA conversions and reversions and to identify predictors of persistent IGRA positivity among serially tested German HCWs in the absence of recent extensive tuberculosis (TB) exposure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this observational cohort-study HCWs were prospectively recruited within occupational safety and health measures and underwent a tuberculin skin test (TST) and the IGRA QuantiFERON^®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) at baseline. The QFT-GIT was repeated 18 weeks later in the median. QFT-GIT conversions (and reversions) were defined as baseline IFN-γ < 0.35 IU/ml and follow-up IFN-γ ≥ 0.35 IU/ml (and vice versa). Predictors of persistently positive QFT-GIT results were calculated by logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 18 (9.9%) and 15 (8.2%) of 182 analyzed HCWs were QFT-GIT-positive at baseline and at follow-up, respectively. We observed a strong overall agreement between baseline and follow-up QFT-GIT results (κ = 0.70). Reversions (6/18, 33.3%) occurred more frequently than conversions (3/162, 1.9%). Age and positive prior and recent TST results independently predicted persistent QFT-GIT positivity. Furthermore, the chance of having persistently positive QFT-GIT results raised about 3% with each additional 0.1 IU/ml increase in the baseline IFN-γ response (adjusted odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.04). No active TB cases were detected within an observational period of more than two years.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The QFT-GIT's utility for the application in serial testing was limited by a substantial proportion of reversions. This shortcoming could be overcome by the implementation of a borderline zone for the interpretation of QFT-GIT results. However, further studies are needed to clearly define the within-subject variability of the QFT-GIT and to confirm that increasing age, concordantly positive TST results, and the extend of baseline IFN-γ responses may predict the persistence of QFT-GIT positivity over time in serially tested HCWs with only a low or medium TB screening risk in a TB low-incidence setting.</p

Rapid Diagnosis of Smear-Negative Tuberculosis Using Immunology and Microbiology with Induced Sputum in HIV-Infected and Uninfected Individuals

Rationale and Objectives. Blood-based studies have demonstrated the potential of immunological assays to detect tuberculosis. However lung fluid sampling may prove superior as it enables simultaneous microbiological detection of mycobacteria to be performed. Until now this has only been possible using the expensive and invasive technique of broncho-alveolar lavage. We sought to evaluate an immunoassay using non-invasive induced-sputum to diagnose active tuberculosis. Methods and Results. Prospective cohort study of forty-two spontaneous sputum smear-negative or sputum non-producing adults under investigation for tuberculosis. CD4 lymphocytes specific to purified-protein-derivative of Mycobacterium tuberculosis actively synthesising interferon-gamma were measured by flow cytometry and final diagnosis compared to immunoassay using a cut-off of 0.5%. Sixteen subjects (38%) were HIV-infected (median CD4 count [range] = 332 cells/mu l [103748]). Thirty-eight (90%) were BCG-vaccinated. In 27 subjects diagnosed with active tuberculosis, the median [range] percentage of interferon-gamma synthetic CD4+ lymphocytes was 2.77% [0-23.93%] versus 0% [0-2.10%] in 15 negative for active infection (p<0.0001). Sensitivity and specificity of the immunoassay versus final diagnosis of active tuberculosis were 89% (24 of 27) and 80% (12 of 15) respectively. The 3 positive assays in the latter group occurred in subjects diagnosed with quiescent/latent tuberculosis. Assay performance was unaffected by HIV-status, BCG-vaccination or disease site. Combining this approach with traditional microbiological methods increased the diagnostic yield to 93% (25 of 27) alongside acid-fast bacilli smear and 96% (26 of 27) alongside tuberculosis culture. Conclusions. These data demonstrate for the first time that a rapid immunological assay to diagnose active tuberculosis can be performed successfully in combination with microbiological methods on a single induced-sputum sample

Serial interferon-gamma release assays during treatment of active tuberculosis in young adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) in monitoring responses to anti-tuberculosis (TB) treatment is not clear. We evaluated the results of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-GIT) assay over time during the anti-TB treatment of adults with no underlying disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We enrolled soldiers who were newly diagnosed with active TB and admitted to the central referral military hospital in South Korea between May 1, 2008 and September 30, 2009. For each participant, we preformed QFT-GIT assay before treatment (baseline) and at 1, 3, and 6 months after initiating anti-TB medication.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 67 eligible patients, 59 (88.1%) completed the study protocol. All participants were males who were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative and had no chronic diseases. Their median age was 21 years (range, 20-48). Initially, 57 (96.6%) patients had positive QFT-GIT results, and 53 (89.8%), 42 (71.2%), and 39 (66.1%) had positive QFT-GIT results at 1, 3, and 6 months, respectively. The IFN-γ level at baseline was 5.31 ± 5.34 IU/ml, and the levels at 1, 3, and 6 months were 3.95 ± 4.30, 1.82 ± 2.14, and 1.50 ± 2.12 IU/ml, respectively. All patients had clinical and radiologic improvements after treatment and were cured. A lower IFN-γ level, C-reactive protein ≥ 3 mg/dl, and the presence of fever (≥ 38.3°C) at diagnosis were associated with negative reversion of the QFT-GIT assay.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the IFN-γ level measured by QFT-GIT assay decreased after successful anti-TB treatment in most participants, less than half of them exhibited QFT-GIT reversion. Thus, the reversion to negativity of the QFT-GIT assay may not be a good surrogate for treatment response in otherwise healthy young patients with TB.</p

Identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Specific Th1, Th17 and Th22 Cells Using the Expression of CD40L in Tuberculous Pleurisy

Important advances have been made in the immunodiagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) based on the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)-specific T cells. However, the sensitivity and specificity of the immunological approach are relatively low because there are no specific markers for antigen-specific Th cells, and some of the Th cells that do not produce cytokines can be overlooked using this approach. In this study, we found that MTB-specific peptides of ESAT-6/CFP-10 can stimulate the expression of CD40L specifically in CD4+ T cells but not other cells from pleural fluid cells (PFCs) in patients with tuberculous pleurisy (TBP). CD4+CD40L+ but not CD4+CD40L− T cells express IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α, IL-17 or IL-22 after stimulation with MTB-specific peptides. In addition, CD4+CD40L+ T cells were found to be mostly polyfunctional T cells that simultaneously produce IFN-γ, IL-2 and TNF-α and display an effector or effector memory phenotype (CD45RA−CD45RO+CCR7−CD62L−ICOS−). To determine the specificity of CD4+CD40L+ T cells, we incubated PFCs with ESTA-6/CFP-10 peptides and sorted live CD4+CD40L+ and CD4+CD40L− T cells by flow cytometry. We further demonstrated that sorted CD4+CD40L+, but not CD4+CD40L− fractions, principally produced IFN-γ, IL-2, TNF-α, IL-17 and IL-22 following restimulation with ESTA-6/CFP-10 peptides. Taken together, our data indicate that the expression of CD40L on MTB-specific CD4+ T cells could be a good marker for the evaluation and isolation of MTB-specific Th cells and might also be useful in the diagnosis of TB

CCL2/MCP-I Genotype-Phenotype Relationship in Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Among the known biomarkers, chemokines, secreted by activated macrophages and T cells, attract groups of immune cells to the site of infection and may determine the clinical outcome. Association studies of CCL-2/MCP-1 -2518 A/G functional SNP linked to high and low phenotypes with tuberculosis disease susceptibility have shown conflicting results in tuberculosis. Some of these differences could be due the variability of latent infection and recent exposure in the control groups. We have therefore carried out a detailed analysis of CCL-2 genotype SNP -2518 (A/G transition) with plasma CCL-2 levels and related these levels to tuberculin skin test positivity in asymptomatic community controls with no known exposure to tuberculosis and in recently exposed household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis patients. TST positivity was linked to higher concentrations of plasma CCL2 (Mann Whitney U test; p = 0.004) and was more marked when the G allele was present in TST+ asymptomatic controls (A/G; p = 0.01). Recent exposure also had a significant effect on CCL-2 levels and was linked to the G allele (p = 0.007). Therefore association studies for susceptibility or protection from disease should take into consideration the PPD status as well as recent exposure of the controls group used for comparison. Our results also suggest a role for CCL-2 in maintaining the integrity of granuloma in asymptomatic individuals with latent infection in high TB burden settings. Therefore additional studies into the role of CCL-2 in disease reactivation and progression are warranted

Biomarker Changes Associated with Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) Conversion: A Two-Year Longitudinal Follow-Up Study in Exposed Household Contacts

Background:A high prevalence (50-80%) of Tuberculin Skin Test Positivity (TST+ \u3eor=10 mm indurations) has been reported in TB endemic countries. This pool forms a huge reservoir for new incident TB cases. However, immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion are largely unknown. The objective of this study was to identify immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion after acute Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) Methodology/Principal Findings:A 24 month longitudinal study was carried out in a recently MTB exposed cohort of household contacts (HC = 93, 75% TST+). Control group consisted of unexposed community controls (EC = 59, 46%TST+). Cytokine secretion was assessed in whole blood cultures in response to either mycobacterial culture filtrate (CF) antigens or mitogens (PHA or LPS) using Elisa methodology. Compared to the EC group, the HC group at recruitment (Kruskal-Wallis Test) showed significantly suppressed IFN gamma (p = 0.0001), raised IL-10 (p = 0.0005) and raised TNF alpha (p = 0.001) in response to CF irrespective of their TST status. Seventeen TST-HC, showed TST conversion when retested at 6 months. Post TST conversion (paired t tests) significant increases were observed for CF induced IFN gamma (p = 0.038), IL-10 (p = 0.001) and IL-6 (p = 0.006). Cytokine responses were also compared in the exposed HC group with either recent infection [(TST converters (N = 17)] or previous infection [TST+ HC (N = 54)] at 0, 6, 12 and 24 months using ANOVA on repeated measures. Significant differences between the exposed HC groups were noted only at 6 months. CF induced IFN gamma was higher in previously infected HC group (p = 0.038) while IL-10 was higher in recently infected HC group (p = 0.041). Mitogen induced cytokine secretion showed similar differences for different group.Conclusions/Significance:Our results suggest that TST conversion is associated with early increases in IFN gamma and IL-10 responses and precedes latency by several months post exposure