NEW SEISMIC SOURCE ZONE MODEL FOR PORTUGAL AND AZORES

The development of seismogenic source models is one of the first steps in seismic hazard assessment. In seismic hazard terminology, seismic source zones (SSZ) are polygons (or volumes) that delineate areas with homogeneous characteristics of seismicity. The importance of using knowledge on geology, seismicity and tectonics in the definition of source zones has been recognized for a long time [1]. However, the definition of SSZ tends to be subjective and controversial. Using SSZ based on broad geology, by spreading the seismicity clusters throughout the areal extent of a zone, provides a way to account for possible long-term non-stationary seismicity behavior [2,3]. This approach effectively increases seismicity rates in regions with no significant historical or instrumental seismicity, while decreasing seismicity rates in regions that display higher rates of seismicity. In contrast, the use of SSZ based on concentrations of seismicity or spatial smoothing results in stationary behavior [4]. In the FP7 Project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe), seismic hazard will be assessed with a logic tree approach that allows for three types of branches for seismicity models: a) smoothed seismicity, b) SSZ, c) SSZ and faults. In this context, a large-scale zonation model for use in the smoothed seismicity branch, and a new consensus SSZ model for Portugal and Azores have been developed. The new models were achieved with the participation of regional experts by combining and adapting existing models and incorporating new regional knowledge of the earthquake potential. The main criteria used for delineating the SSZ include distribution of seismicity, broad geological architecture, crustal characteristics (oceanic versus continental, tectonically active versus stable, etc.), historical catalogue completeness, and the characteristics of active or potentially-active faults. This model will be integrated into an Iberian model of SSZ to be used in the Project SHARE seismic hazard assessment

COMPILATION OF ACTIVE FAULT DATA IN PORTUGAL FOR USE IN SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

To estimate where future earthquakes are likely to occur, it is essential to combine information about past earthquakes with knowledge about the location and seismogenic properties of active faults. For this reason, robust probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates seismicity and active fault data. Existing seismic hazard assessments for Portugal rely exclusively on seismicity data and do not incorporate data on active faults. Project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is an EC-funded initiative (FP7) that aims to evaluate European seismic hazards using an integrated, standardized approach. In the context of SHARE, we are developing a fully-parameterized active fault database for Portugal that incorporates existing compilations, updated according to the most recent publications. The seismogenic source model derived for SHARE will be the first model for Portugal to include fault data and follow an internationally standardized approach. This model can be used to improve both seismic hazard and risk analyses and will be combined with the Spanish database for use in Iberian- and European-scale assessments

Evidence for orbital and North Atlantic climate forcing in alpine Southern California between 125 and 10 ka from multi-proxy analyses of Baldwin Lake

We employed a new, multi-proxy record from Baldwin Lake (∼125–10 ka) to examine drivers of terrestrial Southern California climate over long timescales. Correlated bulk organic and biogenic silica proxy data demonstrated high-amplitude changes from 125 to 71 ka, suggesting that summer insolation directly influenced lake productivity during MIS 5. From 60 to 57 ka, hydrologic state changes and events occurred in California and the U.S. Southwest, though the pattern of response varied geographically. Intermediate, less variable levels of winter and summer insolation followed during MIS 3 (57–29 ka), which likely maintained moist conditions in Southern California that were punctuated with smaller-order, millennial-scale events. These Dansgaard-Oeschger events brought enhanced surface temperatures (SSTs) to the eastern Pacific margin, and aridity to sensitive terrestrial sites in the Southwest and Southern California. Low temperatures and reduced evaporation are widespread during MIS 2, though there is increasing evidence for moisture extremes in Southern California from 29 to 20 ka. Our record shows that both orbital-scale radiative forcing and rapid North Atlantic temperature perturbations were likely influences on Southern California climate prior to the last glacial. However, these forcings produced a hydroclimatic response throughout California and the U.S. Southwest that was geographically complex. This work highlights that it is especially urgent to improve our understanding of the response to rapid climatic change in these regions. Enhanced temperature and aridity are projected for the rest of the 21st century, which will place stress on water resources

Incorporating Descriptive Metadata into Seismic Source Zone Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment: A case study of the Azores-West Iberian region

In probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA), seismic source zone (SSZ) models are widely used to account for the contribution to the hazard from earth- quakes not directly correlated with geological structures. Notwithstanding the impact of SSZ models in PSHA, the theoretical framework underlying SSZ models and the criteria used to delineate the SSZs are seldom explicitly stated and suitably docu- mented. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework to develop and docu- ment SSZ models, which includes (1) an assessment of the appropriate scale and degree of stationarity, (2) an assessment of seismicity catalog completeness-related issues, and (3) an evaluation and credibility ranking of physical criteria used to delin- eate the boundaries of the SSZs. We also emphasize the need for SSZ models to be supported by a comprehensive set of metadata documenting both the unique character- istics of each SSZ and the criteria used to delineate its boundaries. This procedure ensures that the uncertainties in the model can be properly addressed in the PSHA and that the model can be easily updated whenever new data are available. The pro- posed methodology is illustrated using the SSZ model developed for the Azores–West Iberian region in the context of the Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe project (project SHARE) and some of the most relevant SSZs are discussed in detail

Compilation of parameterized seismogenic sources in Iberia for the SHARE European-scale seismic source model.

Abstract: SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) is an EC-funded project (FP7) that aims to evaluate European seismic hazards using an integrated, standardized approach. In the context of SHARE, we are compiling a fully-parameterized active fault database for Iberia and the nearby offshore region. The principal goal of this initiative is for fault sources in the Iberian region to be represented in SHARE and incorporated into the source model that will be used to produce seismic hazard maps at the European scale. The SHARE project relies heavily on input from many regional experts throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region. At the SHARE regional meeting for Iberia, the 2010 Working Group on Iberian Seismogenic Sources (WGISS) was established; these researchers are contributing to this large effort by providing their data to the Iberian regional integrators in a standardized format. The development of the SHARE Iberian active fault database is occurring in parallel with IBERFAULT, another ongoing effort to compile a database of active faults in the Iberian region. The SHARE Iberian active fault database synthesizes a wide range of geological and geophysical observations on active seismogenic sources, and incorporates existing compilations (e.g., Cabral, 1995; Silva et al., 2008), original data contributed directly from researchers, data compiled from the literature, parameters estimated using empirical and analytical relationships, and, where necessary, parameters derived using expert judgment. The Iberian seismogenic source model derived for SHARE will be the first regional-scale source model for Iberia that includes fault data and follows an internationally standardized approach (Basili et al., 2008; 2009). This model can be used in both seismic hazard and risk analyses and will be appropriate for use in Iberian- and European-scale assessments

Fusarium wilt incidence and common bean yield according to the preceding crop and the soil tillage system

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of preceding crops and tillage systems on the incidence of Fusarium wilt (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. phaseoli) and common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield. The cultivar BRS Valente was cultivated under center‑pivot irrigation in the winter seasons of 2003, 2004 and 2005, after several preceding crops established in the summer seasons. Preceding crops included the legumes Cajanus cajan (pigeon pea), Stylosanthes guianensis, and Crotalaria spectabilis; the grasses Pennisetum glaucum (millet), Sorghum bicolor (forage sorghum), Panicum maximum, and Urochloa brizantha; and a consortium of maize (Zea mays) and U. brizantha (Santa Fé system). Experiments followed a strip‑plot design, with four replicates. Fusarium wilt incidence was higher in the no‑tillage system. Higher disease incidences corresponded to lower bean yields in 2003 and 2004. Previous summer cropping with U. brizantha, U. brizantha + maize consortium, and millet showed the lowest disease incidence. Therefore, the choice of preceding crops must be taken into account for managing Fusarium wilt on irrigated common bean crops in the Brazilian Cerrado

Phylogenetic and pathotype analysis of Escherichia coli swine isolates from Southern Brazil

The current study evaluated the presence of virulence factors by a multiplex PCR technique and then phylogenetically classified the studied strains into groups A, B1, B2 and D, according to Clermont et al. (2000), in 152 intestinal and extraintestinal swine isolates of Escherichia coli. Seventy seven isolates tested were positive for virulence factors. Phylogenetic characterization placed 21 samples into group A, 65 into B1, 19 into B2 and 47 into D. Fourteen urine samples were classified as uropathogenic E. coli (UPEC), nine were both UPEC and enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and four were ETEC only. The most common phylogenetic classifications were B1 and D groups. Of the analyzed fecal samples, 25 were classified as ETEC. Phylogenetically, the group of higher occurrence was B1, followed by B2, A and D. For the small intestine samples, 20 were classified as ETEC. Phylogenetic analysis found groups B1 and A to be the most commons in these samples. Six isolated tissue samples were classified as ETEC and most of them were designated as group D by phylogenetic classification. The phylogenetic analysis could be employed in veterinary laboratories in the E. coli isolates screening, including the possibility of vaccine strain selection and epidemiological searches