The Estimation of the Probability of the Twin Crisis Occurrence

This paper calculates the probability of the twin crisis by empirical analysis with models of Logit and Probit. It selects some countries where twin crisis occurred in 1997 as samples, and forecasts within the samples. Then, it selects some countries where twin crisis occurred in 2008, and tests from outside samples. Results show that the model was well fitted and of high accuracy. The empirical results show that when economy growing too fast, a country should prevent the formation of the bubble economy; the excessive expansion of domestic credit will create bubble economy; variables of banking crisis tend to be as simultaneous or warning indicators for the occurrence of currency crisis. Structure of foreign debt must be suitable and the scale of foreign exchange reserves must be moderate. Key words: Banking crisis; Currency crisis; Twin crisis; Probability measuremen

The Radiation Oncology NLP Database

We present the Radiation Oncology NLP Database (ROND), the first dedicated Natural Language Processing (NLP) dataset for radiation oncology, an important medical specialty that has received limited attention from the NLP community in the past. With the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), there is an increasing need for specialized datasets and benchmarks to facilitate research and development. ROND is specifically designed to address this gap in the domain of radiation oncology, a field that offers many opportunities for NLP exploration. It encompasses various NLP tasks including Logic Reasoning, Text Classification, Named Entity Recognition (NER), Question Answering (QA), Text Summarization, and Patient-Clinician Conversations, each with a distinct focus on radiation oncology concepts and application cases. In addition, we have developed an instruction-tuning dataset consisting of over 20k instruction pairs (based on ROND) and trained a large language model, CancerChat. This serves to demonstrate the potential of instruction-tuning large language models within a highly-specialized medical domain. The evaluation results in this study could serve as baseline results for future research. ROND aims to stimulate advancements in radiation oncology and clinical NLP by offering a platform for testing and improving algorithms and models in a domain-specific context. The ROND dataset is a joint effort of multiple U.S. health institutions. The data is available at https://github.com/zl-liu/Radiation-Oncology-NLP-Database.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, 6 table

Portfolio Optimization with Asset-Liability Ratio Regulation Constraints

This paper considers both a top regulation bound and a bottom regulation bound imposed on the asset-liability ratio at the regulatory time T to reduce risks of abnormal high-speed growth of asset price within a short period of time (or high investment leverage), and to mitigate risks of low assets’ return (or a sharp fall). Applying the stochastic optimal control technique, a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation is derived. Then, the effective investment strategy and the minimum variance are obtained explicitly by using the Lagrange duality method. Moreover, some numerical examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of our results

Research on the macro net financial assets value effect of monetary policy

This paper focuses on the impact of Chinese and US monetary policy on the net financial assets value of macro balance sheet from both theoretical and empirical aspects and reveals the sectoral solvency risk conduction path based on the balance sheet channel. In addition, the paper is focused on the effects of the interest rate as a target tool for monetary policy on the macro net financial assets. In the theoretical analysis, the net present value model of the economy is constructed, and a general equilibrium model representing the relationship between the real interest rate and net asset value of five sectors is derived (government, financial, resident, enterprise and central bank sector). This model explains the basic principle how interest rates affect net financial assets values. The dataset includes the central bank, commercial banks and shadow banks, and the stock and equity liabilities of the debtor are taken as the net asset of financial institutions during the period 2000–2016. The empirical results show that an increase in the real deposit interest rate improves the net financial assets value of the four sectors, and an increase in the real loan interest rate reduces the net financial assets value of the four sectors, while the effect of the real loan interest rate is greater than the real deposit interest rate. The effect ranking of interest rates on the four sectors is financial, enterprise, government, and resident sector. Overall, loose monetary policies can reduce macro-financial risks through the balance sheet channel, while the negative effects of long-term low-interest policies should be prevented; the macro-policies should hedge sectoral risks triggered by the exit of the easing policy via the macro balance sheet channel

The Influence of Information Diffusion on Interbank Risk Contagion

In this paper, the stylized features of incomplete and asymmetric information in the interbank market leading to banks’ precautionary behaviors are introduced. Based on banks’ stylized behavioral rules, the influencing mechanism of information diffusion on interbank risk contagion is analyzed, and how the existence of information diffusion and banks’ information-obtaining ability influence the interbank risk contagion is verified through computational simulations. The results show that information diffusion can significantly accelerate the process of and magnify the extent and probability of interbank risk contagion, and improving banks’ information-obtaining ability could lower the speed and extent of the interbank risk contagion. This paper also finds and explains some special phenomena of rollover risk contagion when information diffusion exists: the saltatory risk contagion, the circular liquidity trap, and the risk discovery of information diffusion

Review of the International Financial Trends in Post Financial Crisis Era

AbstractIt was difficult to assure simply that the world economy had entered a post financial crisis era. The paper, based on the study of other scholars, firstly analyzed the definition of the post financial crisis in-depth. And after pointing the profound cause of the subprime crisis, concerning the trends of the international finance and the reform of the international financial order, the author attempted to show the complexity of the international economic and financial situation