Systemic Risk and the Ripple Effect in the Supply Chain

Supply chains are highly complex systems, and disruptions may ripple through these systems in unexpected ways, but they may also start in unexpected ways. We investigate the causes of ripple effect through the lens of systemic risk. We derive supply chain systemic risk from the finance discipline where sources of risk are found in systemic risk-taking, contagion, and amplification mechanisms. In a supply chain context, we identify three dimensions that influence systemic risk, the nature of a disruption, the structure, and dependency of the supply chain, and the decision-making. Within these three dimensions, there are several factors including correlation of risk, compounding effects, cyclical linkages, counterparty risk, herding behavior, and misaligned incentives. These factors are often invisible to decision makers, and they may operate in tandem to exacerbate ripple effect. We highlight these systemic risks, and we encourage further research to understand their nature and to mitigate their effect

Validation of the SCID-hu Thy/Liv mouse model with four classes of licensed antiretrovirals.

BackgroundThe SCID-hu Thy/Liv mouse model of HIV-1 infection is a useful platform for the preclinical evaluation of antiviral efficacy in vivo. We performed this study to validate the model with representatives of all four classes of licensed antiretrovirals.Methodology/principal findingsEndpoint analyses for quantification of Thy/Liv implant viral load included ELISA for cell-associated p24, branched DNA assay for HIV-1 RNA, and detection of infected thymocytes by intracellular staining for Gag-p24. Antiviral protection from HIV-1-mediated thymocyte depletion was assessed by multicolor flow cytometric analysis of thymocyte subpopulations based on surface expression of CD3, CD4, and CD8. These mice can be productively infected with molecular clones of HIV-1 (e.g., the X4 clone NL4-3) as well as with primary R5 and R5X4 isolates. To determine whether results in this model are concordant with those found in humans, we performed direct comparisons of two drugs in the same class, each of which has known potency and dosing levels in humans. Here we show that second-generation antiretrovirals were, as expected, more potent than their first-generation predecessors: emtricitabine was more potent than lamivudine, efavirenz was more potent than nevirapine, and atazanavir was more potent than indinavir. After interspecies pharmacodynamic scaling, the dose ranges found to inhibit viral replication in the SCID-hu Thy/Liv mouse were similar to those used in humans. Moreover, HIV-1 replication in these mice was genetically stable; treatment of the mice with lamivudine did not result in the M184V substitution in reverse transcriptase, and the multidrug-resistant NY index case HIV-1 retained its drug-resistance substitutions.ConclusionGiven the fidelity of such comparisons, we conclude that this highly reproducible mouse model is likely to predict clinical antiviral efficacy in humans

Neuroprotection in a Novel Mouse Model of Multiple Sclerosis

The authors acknowledge the support of the Barts and the London Charity, the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, USA, notably the National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement & Reduction of Animals in Research, and the Wellcome Trust (grant no. 092539 to ZA). The siRNA was provided by Quark Pharmaceuticals. The funders and Quark Pharmaceuticals had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Age and gender differences in disabling foot pain using different definitions of the manchester foot pain and disability index

Extent: 9p.Background: The Manchester Foot Pain and Disability Index (MFPDI) has been used to determine the prevalence of disabling foot pain in several studies, however there is some debate as to which case definition is most appropriate. The objective of this study was to explore age and gender differences in the proportion of people with disabling foot pain using three different case definitions of the MFPDI and for each individual MFPDI item. Methods: A random sample of 223 participants aged 27 to 90 years (88 males and 135 females) from the North West Adelaide Health Study, who reported having pain, aching or stiffness in either of their feet on most days in the last month, completed the MFPDI by telephone interview. The proportion of people with disabling foot pain was determined using three definitions: (i) Definition A-at least one of the 17 items documented on at least some days in the last month; (ii) Definition B-at least one of the 17 items documented on most/every day(s) in the last month, and; (iii) Definition C-at least one of the ten functional limitation items documented on most/every day(s) in the last month. Cross-tabulations and chi-squared statistics were used to explore differences in responses to the MFPDI items according to age and gender. Results: The proportion of people with disabling foot pain according to each definition was as follows: Definition A (100%), Definition B (95.1%) and Definition C (77.6%). Definition C was most sensitive to age and gender differences. Exploration of individual MFPDI items indicated that age significantly affected both the pain intensity and functional limitation items, with younger people more likely to report their foot pain being worse in the morning, and older people more likely to report functional limitations. Although gender did not influence responses to the personal appearance items, women were more likely report functional limitations than men. Conclusions: Definition C of the MFPDI is more sensitive to age and gender differences in the proportion of people with disabling foot pain, and would therefore seem to be the most appropriate case definition to use in epidemiological studies involving a broad age range of participants.Hylton B Menz, Tiffany K Gill, Anne W Taylor and Catherine L Hil

Financial considerations in the conduct of multi-centre randomised controlled trials: evidence from a qualitative study.

National Coordinating Centre for Research Methodology; Medical Research Council, UK Department of Health; Chief Scientist OfficeNot peer reviewedPublisher PD

A tidally distorted dwarf galaxy near NGC 4449

NGC 4449 is a nearby Magellanic irregular starburst galaxy with a B-band absolute magnitude of -18 and a prominent, massive, intermediate-age nucleus at a distance from Earth of 3.8 megaparsecs. It is wreathed in an extraordinary neutral hydrogen (H I) complex, which includes rings, shells and a counter-rotating core, spanning 90 kiloparsecs. NGC 4449 is relatively isolated, although an interaction with its nearest known companion-the galaxy DDO 125, some 40 kpc to the south-has been proposed as being responsible for the complexity of its HI structure. Here we report the presence of a dwarf galaxy companion to NGC 4449, namely NGC 4449B. This companion has a V-band absolute magnitude of -13.4 and a half-light radius of 2.7 kpc, with a full extent of around 8 kpc. It is in a transient stage of tidal disruption, similar to that of the Sagittarius dwarf near the Milky Way. NGC 4449B exhibits a striking S-shaped morphology that has been predicted for disrupting galaxies but has hitherto been seen only in a dissolving globular cluster. We also detect an additional arc or disk ripple embedded in a two-component stellar halo, including a component extending twice as far as previously known, to about 20 kpc from the galaxy's centre.Comment: Published in Nature, February 9, 2012. Nature, 482, 192-194 Published article available at http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v482/n7384//full/nature10837.htm

Genetic dissection of grain zinc concentration in spring wheat for mainstreaming biofortification in CIMMYT wheat breeding

Wheat is an important staple that acts as a primary source of dietary energy, protein, and essential micronutrients such as iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) for the world’s population. Approximately two billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiency, thus breeders have crossed high Zn progenitors such as synthetic hexaploid wheat, T. dicoccum, T. spelta, and landraces to generate wheat varieties with competitive yield and enhanced grain Zn that are being adopted by farmers in South Asia. Here we report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using the wheat Illumina iSelect 90 K Infinitum SNP array to characterize grain Zn concentrations in 330 bread wheat lines. Grain Zn phenotype of this HarvestPlus Association Mapping (HPAM) panel was evaluated across a range of environments in India and Mexico. GWAS analysis revealed 39 marker-trait associations for grain Zn. Two larger effect QTL regions were found on chromosomes 2 and 7. Candidate genes (among them zinc finger motif of transcription-factors and metal-ion binding genes) were associated with the QTL. The linked markers and associated candidate genes identified in this study are being validated in new biparental mapping populations for marker-assisted breeding