An Agent-Based Model of Tsetse Fly Response to Seasonal Climatic Drivers: Assessing the Impact on Sleeping Sickness Transmission Rates

ackgroundThis paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to incorporate climatic drivers which affect tsetse fly (G. m. morsitans) population dynamics, and ultimately disease transmission. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how tsetse populations fluctuate seasonally, and investigate any response observed in Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission, with a view to gaining a greater understanding of disease dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for the development of appropriate, well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.MethodsThe ABM was developed to model rHAT incidence at a fine spatial scale along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model incorporates climatic factors that affect pupal mortality, pupal development, birth rate, and death rate. In combination with fine scale demographic data such as ethnicity, age and gender for the human population in the region, as well as an animal census and a sample of daily routines, we create a detailed, plausible simulation model to explore tsetse population and disease transmission dynamics.ResultsThe seasonally-driven model suggests that the number of infections reported annually in the simulation is likely to be a reasonable representation of reality, taking into account the high levels of under-detection observed. Similar infection rates were observed in human (0.355 per 1000 person-years (SE = 0.013)), and cattle (0.281 per 1000 cattle-years (SE = 0.025)) populations, likely due to the sparsity of cattle close to the tsetse interface. The model suggests that immigrant tribes and school children are at greatest risk of infection, a result that derives from the bottom-up nature of the ABM and conditioning on multiple constraints. This result could not be inferred using alternative population-level modelling approaches.ConclusionsIn producing a model which models the tsetse population at a very fine resolution, we were able to analyse and evaluate specific elements of the output, such as pupal development and the progression of the teneral population, allowing the development of our understanding of the tsetse population as a whole. This is an important step in the production of a more accurate transmission model for rHAT which can, in turn, help us to gain a greater understanding of the transmission system as a whole

Desafios para a humanização do cuidado em uma unidade de terapia intensiva neonatal cirúrgica Challenges for humanization of care in a surgical neonatal intensive care unit

Este estudo analisa cuidados ambientais e relações de atendimento em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva Neonatal Cirúrgica, refletindo sobre potencialidades e obstáculos para promoção de cuidado humanizado. A pesquisa, realizada em uma instituição de nível terciário, utilizou o método da observação participante enfocando, por cinco meses, relações profissional-bebê, profissional-responsável e mãe-bebê. Foram observadas rotinas contemplando condições ambientais e necessidades de bebês e famílias, e estratégias para redução de ruído e luminosidade, com diferentes níveis de efetividade. O consolo e bem-estar dos bebês eram proporcionados por suporte do corpo e uso da sucção não-nutritiva. Tais condutas não eram sistematizadas e revelaram contradições e ambigüidades. O acesso dos pais era incentivado, porém sinais de dificuldades como medo, insegurança e estresse na relação pais-bebês, indicaram necessidade de ampliação dos cuidados dirigidos à família. Posturas e práticas em UTIs Neonatais são permeadas por conflitos, negociações e adaptações ao trabalho, constituindo um desafio à construção de um modelo assistencial humanizado, que alie diferentes tecnologias, respeito e acolhimento às necessidades intersubjetivas de pacientes e profissionais e reconhecimento das lógicas culturais das famílias.<br>This study analyze the environmental cares and the assistance human relations in a surgical neonatal intensive care unit, reflecting about potentialities and obstacles for the promotion of a humanized care. The research, accomplished in an Unit of tertiary level used the method of participant observation focusing, for five months, the human relations professional-baby, professional-parents and mother-baby. Routines contemplating environmental conditions and needs of babies and families, and strategies for noise and brightness reduction were observed, with different levels of effectiveness. The comfort and babies’ welfare were provided through body support and non-nutritious suction. These procedures were not systematized and revealed contradictions and ambiguities. The parents' access was encouraged. However, signs of difficulty as fear, insecurity and stress in the parents-babies relationship, pointed out to a need of more care addressed to the family. Attitudes and practices in Units of Intensive Therapy are permeated by conflicts, negotiations and adaptations to work, constituting a challenge to the construction of a humanized care model, that allies different technologies, respect and welcoming to the patients' and professional needs and the recognition of the cultural logics of the family