How Society Can Maintain Human-Centric Artificial Intelligence

Although not a goal universally held, maintaining human-centric artificial intelligence is necessary for society's long-term stability. Fortunately, the legal and technological problems of maintaining control are actually fairly well understood and amenable to engineering. The real problem is establishing the social and political will for assigning and maintaining accountability for artifacts when these artefacts are generated or used. In this chapter we review the necessity and tractability of maintaining human control, and the mechanisms by which such control can be achieved. What makes the problem both most interesting and most threatening is that achieving consensus around any human-centred approach requires at least some measure of agreement on broad existential concerns

Fast Ensemble Smoothing

Smoothing is essential to many oceanographic, meteorological and hydrological applications. The interval smoothing problem updates all desired states within a time interval using all available observations. The fixed-lag smoothing problem updates only a fixed number of states prior to the observation at current time. The fixed-lag smoothing problem is, in general, thought to be computationally faster than a fixed-interval smoother, and can be an appropriate approximation for long interval-smoothing problems. In this paper, we use an ensemble-based approach to fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing, and synthesize two algorithms. The first algorithm produces a linear time solution to the interval smoothing problem with a fixed factor, and the second one produces a fixed-lag solution that is independent of the lag length. Identical-twin experiments conducted with the Lorenz-95 model show that for lag lengths approximately equal to the error doubling time, or for long intervals the proposed methods can provide significant computational savings. These results suggest that ensemble methods yield both fixed-interval and fixed-lag smoothing solutions that cost little additional effort over filtering and model propagation, in the sense that in practical ensemble application the additional increment is a small fraction of either filtering or model propagation costs. We also show that fixed-interval smoothing can perform as fast as fixed-lag smoothing and may be advantageous when memory is not an issue

Predictive impact of rare genomic copy number variations in siblings of individuals with autism spectrum disorders.

Identification of genetic biomarkers associated with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) could improve recurrence prediction for families with a child with ASD. Here, we describe clinical microarray findings for 253 longitudinally phenotyped ASD families from the Baby Siblings Research Consortium (BSRC), encompassing 288 infant siblings. By age 3, 103 siblings (35.8%) were diagnosed with ASD and 54 (18.8%) were developing atypically. Thirteen siblings have copy number variants (CNVs) involving ASD-relevant genes: 6 with ASD, 5 atypically developing, and 2 typically developing. Within these families, an ASD-related CNV in a sibling has a positive predictive value (PPV) for ASD or atypical development of 0.83; the Simons Simplex Collection of ASD families shows similar PPVs. Polygenic risk analyses suggest that common genetic variants may also contribute to ASD. CNV findings would have been pre-symptomatically predictive of ASD or atypical development in 11 (7%) of the 157 BSRC siblings who were eventually diagnosed clinically

Commentary: Sex difference differences? A reply to Constantino Dr Meng-Chuan Lai

Messinger et al. found a 3.18 odds ratio of male to female ASD recurrence in 1241 prospectively followed high-risk (HR) siblings. Among high-risk siblings (with and without ASD), as well as among 583 low-risk controls, girls exhibited higher performance on the Mullen Scales of Early Learning, as well as lower restricted and repetitive behavior severity scores on the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) than boys. That is, female-favoring sex differences in developmental performance and autism traits were evident among low-risk and non-ASD high-risk children, as well as those with ASD. Constantino (Mol Autism) suggests that sex differences in categorical ASD outcomes in Messinger et al. should be understood as a female protective effect. We are receptive to Constantino's (Mol Autism) suggestion, and propose that quantitative sex differences in autism-related features are keys to understanding this female protective effect

Visual attention and autistic behavior in infants with fragile X syndrome

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the leading known inherited cause of intellectual disability and the most common known biological cause of autism. Approximately 25% to 50% of males with FXS meet full diagnostic criteria for autism. Despite the high comorbidity between FXS and autism and the ability to diagnose FXS prenatally or at birth, no studies have examined indicators of autism in infants with FXS. The current study focused on indices of visual attention, one of the earliest and most robust behavioral indicators of autism in idiopathic (non-FXS) autism. Analyses revealed lower HR variability, shallower HR decelerations, and prolonged look durations in 12-month old infants with FXS that were correlated with severity of autistic behavior but not mental age

Altering the trajectory of early postnatal cortical development can lead to structural and behavioural features of autism

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Autism is a behaviourally defined neurodevelopmental disorder with unknown etiology. Recent studies in autistic children consistently point to neuropathological and functional abnormalities in the temporal association cortex (TeA) and its associated structures. It has been proposed that the trajectory of postnatal development in these regions may undergo accelerated maturational alterations that predominantly affect sensory recognition and social interaction. Indeed, the temporal association regions that are important for sensory recognition and social interaction are one of the last regions to mature suggesting a potential vulnerability to early maturation. However, direct evaluation of the emerging hypothesis that an altered time course of early postnatal development can lead to an ASD phenotype remains lacking.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We used electrophysiological, histological, and behavioural techniques to investigate if the known neuronal maturational promoter valproate, similar to that in culture systems, can influence the normal developmental trajectory of TeA <it>in vivo</it>. Brain sections obtained from postnatal rat pups treated with VPA <it>in vivo </it>revealed that almost 40% of cortical cells in TeA prematurely exhibited adult-like intrinsic electrophysiological properties and that this was often associated with gross cortical hypertrophy and a reduced predisposition for social play behaviour.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The co-manifestation of these functional, structural and behavioural features suggests that alteration of the developmental time course in certain high-order cortical networks may play an important role in the neurophysiological basis of autism.</p

Does routine child health surveillance contribute to the early detection of children with pervasive developmental disorders? – An epidemiological study in Kent, U.K.

BACKGROUND: Recently changed guidelines for child health surveillance in the United Kingdom (U.K.) suggest targeted checks only, instead of the previously conducted routine or universal screening at 2 years and 3.5 years. There are concerns that these changes could lead to a delay in the detection of children with autism and other pervasive developmental disorders (PDD). Recent U.K. studies have suggested that the prevalence of PDD is much higher than previously estimated. This study establishes to which extent the routine checks contributed to the early detection and assessment of cases of PDD. Simultaneously we have evaluated the process involved and estimate the prevalence of PDD in our district. METHODS: Retrospective study design utilising community medical files. Headteachers of schools (n = 75) within Maidstone district (Kent) were asked to report all children with an established diagnosis of autism or PDD attending year 4 (born '91 and '92 / n = 2536) in October 2000 based on educational records. RESULTS: 59 schools (78.7%) took part in the study. A total of 33 children were reported. 21 fulfilled the inclusion criteria (12 falsely reported). The prevalences were (per 10,000): PDD 82.8 (male to female ratio 6:1), childhood autism 23.7, Asperger's syndrome 11.8 and autistic spectrum disorder 47.3. Co-existing medical conditions were noted in 14.3%; 52.4% were attending mainstream schools. In 63.2% of cases concerns – mainly in the area of speech and language development (SLD) – had been documented at the 2 year check. At the 3.5 year check concerns were noted in 94.1% – the main area was again SLD (76.5%), although behavioural abnormalities were becoming more frequent (47.1%). A total of 13 children (68.4%) were referred for further assessment as a direct result of the checks. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalences for different types of PDD were similar to figures published recently, but much higher than reported a few years ago. Analysis of our data suggests that routine surveillance is a valuable contributing factor for the early detection of PDD and thereby facilitates early intervention. Thus, if routine surveillance ceases, then an alternative method of early detection should be put in place

On systems and control approaches to therapeutic gain

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models of cancer relevant processes are being developed at an increasing rate. Conceptual frameworks are needed to support new treatment designs based on such models. METHODS: A modern control perspective is used to formulate two therapeutic gain strategies. RESULTS: Two conceptually distinct therapeutic gain strategies are provided. The first is direct in that its goal is to kill cancer cells more so than normal cells, the second is indirect in that its goal is to achieve implicit therapeutic gains by transferring states of cancer cells of non-curable cases to a target state defined by the cancer cells of curable cases. The direct strategy requires models that connect anti-cancer agents to an endpoint that is modulated by the cause of the cancer and that correlates with cell death. It is an abstraction of a strategy for treating mismatch repair (MMR) deficient cancers with iodinated uridine (IUdR); IU-DNA correlates with radiation induced cell killing and MMR modulates the relationship between IUdR and IU-DNA because loss of MMR decreases the removal of IU from the DNA. The second strategy is indirect. It assumes that non-curable patient outcomes will improve if the states of their malignant cells are first transferred toward a state that is similar to that of a curable patient. This strategy is difficult to employ because it requires a model that relates drugs to determinants of differences in patient survival times. It is an abstraction of a strategy for treating BCR-ABL pro-B cell childhood leukemia patients using curable cases as the guides. CONCLUSION: Cancer therapeutic gain problem formulations define the purpose, and thus the scope, of cancer process modeling. Their abstractions facilitate considerations of alternative treatment strategies and support syntheses of learning experiences across different cancers

Effectiveness of a computer assisted learning (CAL) package to raise awareness of autism

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Promoting awareness of autism in populations who work with children may result in an earlier diagnosis of the condition. In this study, a computer assisted learning (CAL) package, containing educationally appropriate knowledge about autism was developed; and the effectiveness of this CAL package was evaluated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The CAL package was developed using computer software, "Xerte" and "Flash Macromedia". The effectiveness of the CAL package was evaluated in 32 childcare students in the UK, who were randomised to watch the CAL package or to read the information leaflet containing the same information (n = 16 in each group). Retention performance, level of enjoyment, and level of confidence to identify a child with autism, after the interventions, were evaluated. The data obtained from two studied groups was analysed using unpaired Student's t-test, 95% confidence interval, and effect size.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Students who watched the CAL package had superior retention performance percentage scores (p = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.83–12.19, effect size = 0.8) and level of enjoyment (p = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.03–2.75, effect size = 0.7) compared with students who read the information leaflet. However, there was no significant difference in level of confidence to identify a child with autism (p = 0.39, 95% CI = -1.80–0.72, effect size = -0.3).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CAL package developed was an effective method of educating people who work with children about autism.</p