Forecasting the money multiplier: implications for money stock control and economic activity

Forecasting ; Money supply

Infrared spectra of Mg-SiO smokes : comparison with analytical electron microscopy studies

An important component of current models for interstellar and circumstellar evolution is the infrared (IR)spectral data collected from stellar outflows around oxygen-rich stars and from the general interstellar medium [1]. IR spectra from these celestial bodies are usually interpreted as showing the general properties of sub-micron sized silicate grains [2]. Two major features at 10 and 20 microns are reasonably attributed to amorphous olivine or pyroxene (e.g. Mg2Si04 or MgSi03) on the basis of comparisons with natural standards and vapor condensed silicates [3-6]. In an attempt to define crystallisation rates for spectrally amorphous condensates, Nuth and Donn [5] annealed experimentally produced amorphous magnesium silicate smokes at 1000K. On analysing these smokes at various annealing times, Nuth and Donn [5] showed that changes in crystallinity measured by bulk X-ray diffraction occured at longer annealing times (days) than changes measured by IR spectra (a few hours). To better define the onset of crystallinity in these magnesium silicates, we have examined each annealed product using a JEOL 1OOCX analytical electron microscope (AEM). In addition, the development of chemical diversity with annealing has been monitored using energy dispersive spectroscopy of individual grains from areas <20nm in diameter. Furthermore, the crystallisation kinetics of these smokes under ambient, room temperature conditions have been examined using bulk and fourier transform infrared (FTIR)spectra

The influence of magnetite nano particles on the behavior of insulating oils for pulse power applications

The effects of the addition of magnetite nanoparticles on the breakdown strength of three insulating liquids have been examined. The liquids considered are: a mineral transformer oil; a synthetic ester liquid, Midel 7131, and a specialist high permittivity liquid for pulse power applications THESO. The expected increases in breakdown strength were observed in the mineral oil and synthetic ester liquids. However in the case of the high permittivity liquid no significant changes in the breakdown strength were observed. Possible explanations for the differences in the observed behavior for the THESO insulating liquid are discussed

Modern seawater acidification: The response of foraminifera to high-CO<inf>2</inf> conditions in the Mediterranean Sea

The seas around the island of Ischia (Italy) have a lowered pH as a result of volcanic gas vents that emit carbon dioxide from the sea floor at ambient seawater temperatures. These areas of acidified seawater provide natural laboratories in which to study the long-term biological response to rising CO2 levels. Benthic foraminifera (single-celled protists) are particularly interesting as they have short life histories, are environmentally sensitive and have an excellent fossil record. Here, we examine changes in foraminiferal assemblages along pH gradients at CO2 vents on the coast of Ischia and show that the foraminiferal distribution, diversity and nature of the fauna change markedly in the living assemblages as pH decreases. © 2010 Geological Society of London

A simple construction of complex equiangular lines

A set of vectors of equal norm in $\mathbb{C}^d$ represents equiangular lines if the magnitudes of the inner product of every pair of distinct vectors in the set are equal. The maximum size of such a set is $d^2$, and it is conjectured that sets of this maximum size exist in $\mathbb{C}^d$ for every $d \geq 2$. We describe a new construction for maximum-sized sets of equiangular lines, exposing a previously unrecognized connection with Hadamard matrices. The construction produces a maximum-sized set of equiangular lines in dimensions 2, 3 and 8.Comment: 11 pages; minor revisions and comments added in section 1 describing a link to previously known results; correction to Theorem 1 and updates to reference

The curious nonexistence of Gaussian 2-designs

2-designs -- ensembles of quantum pure states whose 2nd moments equal those of the uniform Haar ensemble -- are optimal solutions for several tasks in quantum information science, especially state and process tomography. We show that Gaussian states cannot form a 2-design for the continuous-variable (quantum optical) Hilbert space L2(R). This is surprising because the affine symplectic group HWSp (the natural symmetry group of Gaussian states) is irreducible on the symmetric subspace of two copies. In finite dimensional Hilbert spaces, irreducibility guarantees that HWSp-covariant ensembles (such as mutually unbiased bases in prime dimensions) are always 2-designs. This property is violated by continuous variables, for a subtle reason: the (well-defined) HWSp-invariant ensemble of Gaussian states does not have an average state because the averaging integral does not converge. In fact, no Gaussian ensemble is even close (in a precise sense) to being a 2-design. This surprising difference between discrete and continuous quantum mechanics has important implications for optical state and process tomography.Comment: 9 pages, no pretty figures (sorry!

Comparing Multi-State Kalman Filter and ARIMA forecasts: an application to the money multiplier

This paper derives one-month ahead forecasts of the money (M I) multiplier using the Multi-State Kalman Filter and Box-Jenkins ARIMA methods. A comparison of the forecasts far the period 1980-82 reveals that the Multi-State Kalman Filter procedure was generally superior to the ARIMA procedure In terms of most summary statistics. The superiority is traced to the turbulent period of 1980-81. This paper also compares aggregate and component forecasts of the multiplier. The aggregate Multi-State Kalman Filter was the most accurate in predicting the one-month ahead money multiplier.