Consequences of Uncertainty in Global-Scale Land Cover Maps for Mapping Ecosystem Functions: An Analysis of Pollination Efficiency

Mapping ecosystem services (ESs) is an important tool for providing the quantitative information necessary for the optimal use and protection of ecosystems and biodiversity. A common mapping approach is to apply established empirical relationships to ecosystem property maps. Often, ecosystem properties that provide services to humanity are strongly related to the land use and land cover, where the spatial allocation of the land cover in the landscape is especially important. Land use and land cover maps are, therefore, essential for ES mapping. However, insight into the uncertainties in land cover maps and how these propagate into ES maps is lacking. To analyze the effects of these uncertainties, we mapped pollination efficiency as an example of an ecosystem function, using two continental-scale land cover maps and two global-scale land cover maps. We compared the outputs with maps based on a detailed national-scale map. The ecosystem properties and functions could be mapped using the GLOBCOVER map with a reasonable to good accuracy. In homogeneous landscapes, an even coarser resolution map would suffice. For mapping ESs that depend on the spatial allocation of land cover in the landscape, a classification of satellite images using fractional land cover or mosaic classes is an asset

The carbon copy of human activities : how long-term land use explains spatial variability of soil organic carbon stocks at multiple scales

The carbon copy of human activities - how long-term land use explains spatial variability of soil organic carbon stocks at multiple scales

Mapping ecosystem functions and services in Eastern Europe using global-scale data sets

To assess future interactions between the environment and human well-being, spatially explicit ecosystem service models are needed. Currently available models mainly focus on provisioning services and do not distinguish changes in the functioning of the ecosystem (Ecosystem Functions – ESFs) and human use of such functions (Ecosystem Services – ESSs). This limits the insight on the impact of global change on human well-being. We present a set of models for assessing ESFs and ESSs. We mapped a diverse set of provisioning, regulating and cultural services, focusing on services that depend on the landscape structure. Services were mapped using global-scale data sets. We evaluated the models for a sample area comprising Eastern Europe. ESFs are mainly available in natural areas, while hotspots of ESS supply are found in areas with heterogeneous land cover. Here, natural land cover where ESFs are available is mixed with areas where the ESSs are utilized. We conclude that spatial patterns of several ESFs and ESSs can be mapped at global scale using existing global-scale data sets. As land-cover change has different impacts on different aspects of the interaction between humans and the environment, it is essential to clearly distinguish between ESFs and ESSs in integrated assessment studies

Uncertainties in Ecosystem Service Maps: A Comparison on the European Scale

Safeguarding the benefits that ecosystems provide to society is increasingly included as a target in international policies. To support such policies, ecosystem service maps are made. However, there is little attention for the accuracy of these maps. We made a systematic review and quantitative comparison of ecosystem service maps on the European scale to generate insights in the uncertainty of ecosystem service maps and discuss the possibilities for quantitative validation. Maps of climate regulation and recreation were reasonably similar while large uncertainties among maps of erosion protection and flood regulation were observed. Pollination maps had a moderate similarity. Differences among the maps were caused by differences in indicator definition, level of process understanding, mapping aim, data sources and methodology. Absence of suitable observed data on ecosystem services provisioning hampers independent validation of the maps. Consequently, there are, so far, no accurate measures for ecosystem service map quality. Policy makers and other users need to be cautious when applying ecosystem service maps for decision-making. The results illustrate the need for better process understanding and data acquisition to advance ecosystem service mapping, modelling and validation

The role of different types of actors in the future of sustainable agriculture in a Dutch Peri-urban area

Peri-urban areas support a broad range of multifunctional demands for public goods. In northwest Europe, peri-urban areas tend to overlap with intensive agricultural land, resulting in conflicts between agricultural use and the public good demands of residents. Sustainable intensification (SI) of agriculture might help reconcile agricultural and well-being goals, but it is unclear how the mix of actors in a peri-urban setting can trigger or restrain SI. In a Dutch case study, we explored how SI of agriculture can contribute to making peri-urban areas more sustainable, and which actors are key enabling factors for implementing SI. We used interviews, surveys, workshops, and empirical analysis to obtain insight into the stakeholder's vision of a sustainable future for the case study area, the farming system and actor network. We integrated these insights in a Bayesian Belief Network, where we linked the actor network to implementation of three SI measures (farm-level efficiency measures, small landscape elements, and direct sales), and used sensitivity analysis to model effects of support for implementation by different groups of actors. The case study has a dense stakeholder network, where, dependent on the SI measure, farmers are triggered by all actors to implement SI, or have a stronger role in uptake themselves. The sensitivity analysis suggested that the future preferred by the stakeholders requires broad support of all actors involved, with local actors without a formal role being essential for uptake. Overall, trade-offs among public goods are almost inevitable when taking up SI measures.Industrial Ecolog

Soil carbon dynamics and variability at the landscape scale: its relation to aspects of spatial distribution in national emission databases

Een verdere invulling van de schattingen van emissie en vastlegging van koolstof op een nationale schaal voor de sector landgebruik, landgebruiksverandering, en bosbouw van Nederland. Meer concreet behandelt het rapport: een analyse van de onzekerheid in de berekeningsmethode; overzicht van makkelijk toepasbare steekproefstrategieën; de ruimtelijk variabiliteit op landschapsschaal. Verder zijn aan de hand van enkele simulaties de gevolgen van bedrijfsmatige keuzen voor een melkveehouderij en een akkerbouwbedrijf voor de balans van koolstof en broeikasgas doorgerekend. De rol van historisch landgebruik op de vastgelegde koolstof in de bodem komt eveneens aan de orde

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets

Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing – Insights from five European case studies

Empirical research on land sharing and land sparing has been criticized because preferences of local stakeholders, socio-economic aspects, a bundle of ecosystem services and the local context were only rarely integrated. Using storylines and scenarios is a common approach to include land use drivers and local contexts or to cope with the uncertainties of future developments. The objective of the presented research is to develop comparable participatory regional land use scenarios for the year 2030 reflecting land sharing, land sparing and more intermediate developments across five different European landscapes (Austria, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Spain). In order to ensure methodological consistency among the five case studies, a hierarchical multi-scale scenario approach was developed, which consisted of i) the selection of a common global storyline to frame a common sphere of uncertainty for all case studies, ii) the definition of three contrasting qualitative European storylines (representing developments for land sharing, land sparing and a balanced storyline), and iii) the development of three explorative case study-specific land use scenarios with regional stakeholders in workshops. Land use transition rules defined by stakeholders were used to generate three different spatially-explicit scenarios for each case study by means of high-resolution land use maps. All scenarios incorporated various aspects of land use and management to allow subsequent quantification of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity indicators. The comparison of the final scenarios showed both common as well as diverging trends among the case studies. For instance, stakeholders identified further possibilities to intensify land management in all case studies in the land sparing scenario. In addition, in most case studies stakeholders agreed on the most preferred scenario, i.e. either land sharing or balanced, and the most likely one, i.e. balanced. However, they expressed some skepticism regarding the general plausibility of land sparing in a European context. It can be concluded that stakeholder perceptions and the local context can be integrated in land sharing and land sparing contexts subject to particular process design principles

Characterization factors to assess land use impacts on pollinator abundance in life cycle assessment

While wild pollinators play a key role in global food production, their assessment is currently missing from the most commonly used environmental impact assessment method, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This is mainly due to constraints in data availability and compatibility with LCA inventories. To target this gap, relative pollinator abundance estimates were obtained with the use of a Delphi assessment, during which 25 experts, covering 16 nationalities and 45 countries of expertise, provided scores for low, typical, and high expected abundance associated with 24 land use categories. Based on these estimates, this study presents a set of globally generic characterization factors (CFs) that allows translating land use into relative impacts to wild pollinator abundance. The associated uncertainty of the CFs is presented along with an illustrative case to demonstrate the applicability in LCA studies. The CFs based on estimates that reached consensus during the Delphi assessment are recommended as readily applicable and allow key differences among land use types to be distinguished. The resulting CFs are proposed as the first step for incorporating pollinator impacts in LCA studies, exemplifying the use of expert elicitation methods as a useful tool to fill data gaps that constrain the characterization of key environmental impacts.Industrial EcologyEnvironmental Biolog