Development of a Bidirectional Pedestrian Stream Model with an Oblique Intersecting Angle

This paper establishes a mathematical model that can represent the conflicting effects of two pedestrian streams that have an oblique intersecting angle in a large crowd. In a previous paper, a controlled experiment in which two streams of pedestrians were asked to walk in designated directions was used to model the bidirectional pedestrian stream of certain intersecting angles. In this paper, the writers revisit that problem and apply the Bayesian inference method to calibrate an improved model with the controlled experiment data. Pedestrian movement data are also collected from a busy crosswalk by using a video observation approach. The two sets of data are used separately to calibrate the proposed model. With the calibrated model, the relationship between speed, density, and flow is studied in both the reference and conflicting streams, and a prediction is made regarding how these factors affected the interactions of moving pedestrian streams. It is found that the speed of one stream not only decreases with its total density, but also decreases with the ratio of its flow relative to the total flow, i.e., the speed of the pedestrians decreases if their stream changes from the major to minor stream. It is also observed that the maximum disruption that was induced by pedestrian flow from an intersecting angle occurs when the angle is approximately 135°.postprin

Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals

Recent empirical studies have found widespread inaccuracies in traffic forecasts despite the fact that travel demand forecasting models have been significantly improved over the past few decades. We suspect that an intrinsic selection bias may exist in the competitive project appraisal process, in addition to the many other factors that contribute to inaccurate traffic forecasts. In this paper, we examine the potential for selection bias in the governmental process of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) transportation project appraisals. Although the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria is typically used in practice, traffic flow estimate is usually a key criterion in these appraisals. For the purposes of this paper, we focus on the selection bias associated with the highest flow estimate criterion. We develop two approaches to quantify the level and chance of inaccuracy caused by selection bias: the expected value approach and the probability approach. The expected value approach addresses the question “to what extent is inaccuracy caused by selection bias?”. The probability approach addresses the question “what is the chance of inaccuracy due to selection bias?”. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of selection bias when a government uses the highest traffic forecast estimate as the priority criterion for BOT project selection. In addition, we offer some insights into the relationship between the extent/chance of inaccuracy and other related factors. We do not argue that selection bias is the only reason for inaccurate traffic forecasts in BOT projects; however, it does appear that it could be an intrinsic factor worthy of further attention and investigation.postprin

Multiplicative random walk Metropolis-Hastings on the real line

In this article we propose multiplication based random walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) algorithm on the real line. We call it the random dive MH (RDMH) algorithm. This algorithm, even if simple to apply, was not studied earlier in Markov chain Monte Carlo literature. The associated kernel is shown to have standard properties like irreducibility, aperiodicity and Harris recurrence under some mild assumptions. These ensure basic convergence (ergodicity) of the kernel. Further the kernel is shown to be geometric ergodic for a large class of target densities on $\mathbb{R}$. This class even contains realistic target densities for which random walk or Langevin MH are not geometrically ergodic. Three simulation studies are given to demonstrate the mixing property and superiority of RDMH to standard MH algorithms on real line. A share-price return data is also analyzed and the results are compared with those available in the literature

Parameter Estimation and Quantitative Parametric Linkage Analysis with GENEHUNTER-QMOD

Objective: We present a parametric method for linkage analysis of quantitative phenotypes. The method provides a test for linkage as well as an estimate of different phenotype parameters. We have implemented our new method in the program GENEHUNTER-QMOD and evaluated its properties by performing simulations. Methods: The phenotype is modeled as a normally distributed variable, with a separate distribution for each genotype. Parameter estimates are obtained by maximizing the LOD score over the normal distribution parameters with a gradient-based optimization called PGRAD method. Results: The PGRAD method has lower power to detect linkage than the variance components analysis (VCA) in case of a normal distribution and small pedigrees. However, it outperforms the VCA and Haseman-Elston regression for extended pedigrees, nonrandomly ascertained data and non-normally distributed phenotypes. Here, the higher power even goes along with conservativeness, while the VCA has an inflated type I error. Parameter estimation tends to underestimate residual variances but performs better for expectation values of the phenotype distributions. Conclusion: With GENEHUNTER-QMOD, a powerful new tool is provided to explicitly model quantitative phenotypes in the context of linkage analysis. It is freely available at http://www.helmholtz-muenchen.de/genepi/downloads. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

Science Models as Value-Added Services for Scholarly Information Systems

The paper introduces scholarly Information Retrieval (IR) as a further dimension that should be considered in the science modeling debate. The IR use case is seen as a validation model of the adequacy of science models in representing and predicting structure and dynamics in science. Particular conceptualizations of scholarly activity and structures in science are used as value-added search services to improve retrieval quality: a co-word model depicting the cognitive structure of a field (used for query expansion), the Bradford law of information concentration, and a model of co-authorship networks (both used for re-ranking search results). An evaluation of the retrieval quality when science model driven services are used turned out that the models proposed actually provide beneficial effects to retrieval quality. From an IR perspective, the models studied are therefore verified as expressive conceptualizations of central phenomena in science. Thus, it could be shown that the IR perspective can significantly contribute to a better understanding of scholarly structures and activities.Comment: 26 pages, to appear in Scientometric

What has finite element analysis taught us about diabetic foot disease and its management?:a systematic review

Over the past two decades finite element (FE) analysis has become a popular tool for researchers seeking to simulate the biomechanics of the healthy and diabetic foot. The primary aims of these simulations have been to improve our understanding of the foot's complicated mechanical loading in health and disease and to inform interventions designed to prevent plantar ulceration, a major complication of diabetes. This article provides a systematic review and summary of the findings from FE analysis-based computational simulations of the diabetic foot.A systematic literature search was carried out and 31 relevant articles were identified covering three primary themes: methodological aspects relevant to modelling the diabetic foot; investigations of the pathomechanics of the diabetic foot; and simulation-based design of interventions to reduce ulceration risk.Methodological studies illustrated appropriate use of FE analysis for simulation of foot mechanics, incorporating nonlinear tissue mechanics, contact and rigid body movements. FE studies of pathomechanics have provided estimates of internal soft tissue stresses, and suggest that such stresses may often be considerably larger than those measured at the plantar surface and are proportionally greater in the diabetic foot compared to controls. FE analysis allowed evaluation of insole performance and development of new insole designs, footwear and corrective surgery to effectively provide intervention strategies. The technique also presents the opportunity to simulate the effect of changes associated with the diabetic foot on non-mechanical factors such as blood supply to local tissues.While significant advancement in diabetic foot research has been made possible by the use of FE analysis, translational utility of this powerful tool for routine clinical care at the patient level requires adoption of cost-effective (both in terms of labour and computation) and reliable approaches with clear clinical validity for decision making

Self-assembly of Microcapsules via Colloidal Bond Hybridization and Anisotropy

Particles with directional interactions are promising building blocks for new functional materials and may serve as models for biological structures. Mutually attractive nanoparticles that are deformable due to flexible surface groups, for example, may spontaneously order themselves into strings, sheets and large vesicles. Furthermore, anisotropic colloids with attractive patches can self-assemble into open lattices and colloidal equivalents of molecules and micelles. However, model systems that combine mutual attraction, anisotropy, and deformability have---to the best of our knowledge---not been realized. Here, we synthesize colloidal particles that combine these three characteristics and obtain self-assembled microcapsules. We propose that mutual attraction and deformability induce directional interactions via colloidal bond hybridization. Our particles contain both mutually attractive and repulsive surface groups that are flexible. Analogous to the simplest chemical bond, where two isotropic orbitals hybridize into the molecular orbital of H2, these flexible groups redistribute upon binding. Via colloidal bond hybridization, isotropic spheres self-assemble into planar monolayers, while anisotropic snowman-like particles self-assemble into hollow monolayer microcapsules. A modest change of the building blocks thus results in a significant leap in the complexity of the self-assembled structures. In other words, these relatively simple building blocks self-assemble into dramatically more complex structures than similar particles that are isotropic or non-deformable

Differential expression analysis with global network adjustment

<p>Background: Large-scale chromosomal deletions or other non-specific perturbations of the transcriptome can alter the expression of hundreds or thousands of genes, and it is of biological interest to understand which genes are most profoundly affected. We present a method for predicting a gene’s expression as a function of other genes thereby accounting for the effect of transcriptional regulation that confounds the identification of genes differentially expressed relative to a regulatory network. The challenge in constructing such models is that the number of possible regulator transcripts within a global network is on the order of thousands, and the number of biological samples is typically on the order of 10. Nevertheless, there are large gene expression databases that can be used to construct networks that could be helpful in modeling transcriptional regulation in smaller experiments.</p> <p>Results: We demonstrate a type of penalized regression model that can be estimated from large gene expression databases, and then applied to smaller experiments. The ridge parameter is selected by minimizing the cross-validation error of the predictions in the independent out-sample. This tends to increase the model stability and leads to a much greater degree of parameter shrinkage, but the resulting biased estimation is mitigated by a second round of regression. Nevertheless, the proposed computationally efficient “over-shrinkage” method outperforms previously used LASSO-based techniques. In two independent datasets, we find that the median proportion of explained variability in expression is approximately 25%, and this results in a substantial increase in the signal-to-noise ratio allowing more powerful inferences on differential gene expression leading to biologically intuitive findings. We also show that a large proportion of gene dependencies are conditional on the biological state, which would be impossible with standard differential expression methods.</p> <p>Conclusions: By adjusting for the effects of the global network on individual genes, both the sensitivity and reliability of differential expression measures are greatly improved.</p&gt

Physicochemical analysis of rotavirus segment 11 supports a 'modified panhandle' structure and not the predicted alternative tRNA-like structure (TRLS)

.Rotaviruses are a major cause of acute gastroenteritis, which is often fatal in infants. The viral genome consists of 11 double-stranded RNA segments, but little is known about their cis-acting sequences and structural elements. Covariation studies and phylogenetic analysis exploring the potential structure of RNA11 of rotaviruses suggested that, besides the previously predicted "modified panhandle" structure, the 5' and 3' termini of one of the isoforms of the bovine rotavirus UKtc strain may interact to form a tRNA-like structure (TRLS). Such TRLSs have been identified in RNAs of plant viruses, where they are important for enhancing replication and packaging. However, using tRNA mimicry assays (in vitro aminoacylation and 3'- adenylation), we found no biochemical evidence for tRNA-like functions of RNA11. Capping, synthetic 3' adenylation and manipulation of divalent cation concentrations did not change this finding. NMR studies on a 5'- and 3'-deletion construct of RNA11 containing the putative intra-strand complementary sequences supported a predominant panhandle structure and did not conform to a cloverleaf fold despite the strong evidence for a predicted structure in this conserved region of the viral RNA. Additional viral or cellular factors may be needed to stabilise it into a form with tRNA-like properties

Inverse Modeling for MEG/EEG data

We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art for mathematical methods that are used to reconstruct brain activity from neurophysiological data. After a brief introduction on the mathematics of the forward problem, we discuss standard and recently proposed regularization methods, as well as Monte Carlo techniques for Bayesian inference. We classify the inverse methods based on the underlying source model, and discuss advantages and disadvantages. Finally we describe an application to the pre-surgical evaluation of epileptic patients.Comment: 15 pages, 1 figur