Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and 0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Symptomatic Acute Hepatitis C in Egypt: Diagnosis, Spontaneous Viral Clearance, and Delayed Treatment with 12 Weeks of Pegylated Interferon Alfa-2a

The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion of spontaneous viral clearance (SVC) after symptomatic acute hepatitis C and to evaluate the efficacy of 12 weeks of pegylated interferon alfa-2a in patients who did not clear the virus spontaneously.Patients with symptomatic acute hepatitis C were recruited from two "fever hospitals" in Cairo, Egypt. Patients still viremic three months after the onset of symptoms were considered for treatment with 12 weeks of pegylated interferon alfa-2a (180 microg/week).Between May 2002 and February 2006, 2243 adult patients with acute hepatitis were enrolled in the study. The SVC rate among 117 patients with acute hepatitis C was 33.8% (95%CI [25.9%-43.2%]) at three months and 41.5% (95%CI [33.0%-51.2%]) at six months. The sustained virological response (SVR) rate among the 17 patients who started treatment 4-6 months after onset of symptoms was 15/17 = 88.2% (95%CI [63.6%-98.5%]).Spontaneous viral clearance was high (41.5% six months after the onset of symptoms) in this population with symptomatic acute hepatitis C. Allowing time for spontaneous clearance should be considered before treatment is initiated for symptomatic acute hepatitis C

Pathocenosis: A Holistic Approach to Disease Ecology

The History of medicine describes the emergence and recognition of infectious diseases, and human attempts to stem them. It also throws light on the role of changing environmental conditions on disease emergence/re-emergence, establishment and, sometimes, disappearance. However, the dynamics of infectious diseases is also influenced by the relationships between the community of interacting infectious agents present at a given time in a given territory, a concept that Mirko Grmek, an historian of medicine, conceptualized with the word “pathocenosis”. The spatial and temporal evolution of diseases, when observed at the appropriate scales, illustrates how a change in the pathocenosis, whether of “natural” or anthropic origin, can lead to the emergence and spread of diseases

Role of Active Site Rigidity in Activity: MD Simulation and Fluorescence Study on a Lipase Mutant

Relationship between stability and activity of enzymes is maintained by underlying conformational flexibility. In thermophilic enzymes, a decrease in flexibility causes low enzyme activity while in less stable proteins such as mesophiles and psychrophiles, an increase in flexibility is associated with enhanced enzyme activity. Recently, we identified a mutant of a lipase whose stability and activity were enhanced simultaneously. In this work, we probed the conformational dynamics of the mutant and the wild type lipase, particularly flexibility of their active site using molecular dynamic simulations and time-resolved fluorescence techniques. In contrast to the earlier observations, our data show that active site of the mutant is more rigid than wild type enzyme. Further investigation suggests that this lipase needs minimal reorganization/flexibility of active site residues during its catalytic cycle. Molecular dynamic simulations suggest that catalytically competent active site geometry of the mutant is relatively more preserved than wild type lipase, which might have led to its higher enzyme activity. Our study implies that widely accepted positive correlation between conformation flexibility and enzyme activity need not be stringent and draws attention to the possibility that high enzyme activity can still be accomplished in a rigid active site and stable protein structures. This finding has a significant implication towards better understanding of involvement of dynamic motions in enzyme catalysis and enzyme engineering through mutations in active site

Fish as Reservoirs and Vectors of Vibrio cholerae

Vibrio cholerae, the etiologic agent of cholera, is autochthonous to various aquatic environments, but despite intensive efforts its ecology remains an enigma. Recently, it was suggested that copepods and chironomids, both considered as natural reservoirs of V. cholerae, are dispersed by migratory waterbirds, thus possibly distributing the bacteria between water bodies within and between continents. Although fish have been implicated in the scientific literature with cholera cases, as far as we know, no study actually surveyed the presence of the bacteria in the fish. Here we show for the first time that fish of various species and habitats contain V. cholerae in their digestive tract. Fish (n = 110) were randomly sampled from freshwater and marine habitats in Israel. Ten different fish species sampled from freshwater habitats (lake, rivers and fish ponds), and one marine species, were found to carry V. cholerae. The fish intestine of Sarotherodon galilaeus harboured ca. 5×103 V. cholerae cfu per 1 gr intestine content—high rates compared with known V. cholerae cfu numbers in the bacteria's natural reservoirs. Our results, combined with evidence from the literature, suggest that fish are reservoirs of V. cholerae. As fish carrying the bacteria swim from one location to another (some fish species move from rivers to lakes or sea and vice versa), they serve as vectors on a small scale. Nevertheless, fish are consumed by waterbirds, which disseminate the bacteria on a global scale. Moreover, V. cholerae isolates had the ability to degrade chitin, indicating a commensal relationship between V. cholerae and fish. Better understanding of V. cholerae ecology can help reduce the times that human beings come into contact with this pathogen and thus minimize the health risk this poses

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Rational identification of a Cdc42 inhibitor presents a new regimen for long- term hematopoietic stem cell mobilization

Mobilization of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from bone marrow (BM) to peripheral blood (PB) by cytokine granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) or the chemical antagonist of CXCR4, AMD3100, is important in the treatment of blood diseases. Due to clinical conditions of each application, there is a need for continued improvement of HSC mobilization regimens. Previous studies have shown that genetic ablation of the Rho GTPase Cdc42 in HSCs results in their mobilization without affecting survival. Here we rationally identified a Cdc42 activity-specific inhibitor (CASIN) that can bind to Cdc42 with submicromolar affinity and competitively interfere with guanine nucleotide exchange activity. CASIN inhibits intracellular Cdc42 activity specifically and transiently to induce murine hematopoietic stem/progenitor cell egress from the BM by suppressing actin polymerization, adhesion, and directional migration of stem/progenitor cells, conferring Cdc42 knockout phenotypes. We further show that, although, CASIN administration to mice mobilizes similar number of phenotypic HSCs as AMD3100, it produces HSCs with better long-term reconstitution potential than that by AMD3100. Our work validates a specific small molecule inhibitor for Cdc42, and demonstrates that signaling molecules downstream of cytokines and chemokines, such as Cdc42, constitute a useful target for long-term stem cell mobilization

The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV – insights from clinical trial simulation

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%–77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevented in circumcised males which were attributable to STI was unlikely to be more than 10% to 20%. CONCLUSION: Estimation of efficacy, attributable fraction and effectiveness leads to improved understanding of trial results, gives trial results greater external validity and is essential to determine the broader public health impact of circumcision to men and women

The Evolution of the Major Hepatitis C Genotypes Correlates with Clinical Response to Interferon Therapy

Patients chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) require significantly different durations of therapy and achieve substantially different sustained virologic response rates to interferon-based therapies, depending on the HCV genotype with which they are infected. There currently exists no systematic framework that explains these genotype-specific response rates. Since humans are the only known natural hosts for HCV-a virus that is at least hundreds of years old-one possibility is that over the time frame of this relationship, HCV accumulated adaptive mutations that confer increasing resistance to the human immune system. Given that interferon therapy functions by triggering an immune response, we hypothesized that clinical response rates are a reflection of viral evolutionary adaptations to the immune system.We have performed the first phylogenetic analysis to include all available full-length HCV genomic sequences (n = 345). This resulted in a new cladogram of HCV. This tree establishes for the first time the relative evolutionary ages of the major HCV genotypes. The outcome data from prospective clinical trials that studied interferon and ribavirin therapy was then mapped onto this new tree. This mapping revealed a correlation between genotype-specific responses to therapy and respective genotype age. This correlation allows us to predict that genotypes 5 and 6, for which there currently are no published prospective trials, will likely have intermediate response rates, similar to genotype 3. Ancestral protein sequence reconstruction was also performed, which identified the HCV proteins E2 and NS5A as potential determinants of genotype-specific clinical outcome. Biochemical studies have independently identified these same two proteins as having genotype-specific abilities to inhibit the innate immune factor double-stranded RNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR).An evolutionary analysis of all available HCV genomes supports the hypothesis that immune selection was a significant driving force in the divergence of the major HCV genotypes and that viral factors that acquired the ability to inhibit the immune response may play a role in determining genotype-specific response rates to interferon therapy