COVID-SGIS: A Smart Tool for Dynamic Monitoring and Temporal Forecasting of Covid-19

Background: The global burden of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The current spread of Covid-19 in Brazil is problematic causing a huge public health burden to its population and national health-care service. To evaluate strategies for alleviating such problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of cases and deaths in order to aid the stakeholders in the process of making decisions against the disease. We propose a novel system for real-time forecast of the cumulative cases of Covid-19 in Brazil. / Methods: We developed the novel COVID-SGIS application for the real-time surveillance, forecast and spatial visualization of Covid-19 for Brazil. This system captures routinely reported Covid-19 information from 27 federative units from the Brazil.io database. It utilizes all Covid-19 confirmed case data that have been notified through the National Notification System, from March to May 2020. Time series ARIMA models were integrated for the forecast of cumulative number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. These include 6-days forecasts as graphical outputs for each federative unit in Brazil, separately, with its corresponding 95% CI for statistical significance. In addition, a worst and best scenarios are presented. / Results: The following federative units (out of 27) were flagged by our ARIMA models showing statistically significant increasing temporal patterns of Covid-19 cases during the specified day-to-day period: Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Amapá, Rondônia, where their day-to-day forecasts were within the 95% CI limits. Equally, the same findings were observed for Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina. The overall percentage error between the forecasted values and the actual values varied between 2.56 and 6.50%. For the days when the forecasts fell outside the forecast interval, the percentage errors in relation to the worst case scenario were below 5%. / Conclusion: The proposed method for dynamic forecasting may be used to guide social policies and plan direct interventions in a cost-effective, concise, and robust manner. This novel tools can play an important role for guiding the course of action against the Covid-19 pandemic for Brazil and country neighbors in South America

Covid-19 Dynamic Monitoring and Real-Time Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Background: Periodically, humanity is often faced with new and emerging viruses that can be a significant global threat. It has already been over a century post—the Spanish Flu pandemic, and we are witnessing a new type of coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2, which is responsible for Covid-19. It emerged from the city of Wuhan (China) in December 2019, and within a few months, the virus propagated itself globally now resulting more than 50 million cases with over 1 million deaths. The high infection rates coupled with dynamic population movement demands for tools, especially within a Brazilian context, that will support health managers to develop policies for controlling and combating the new virus. / Methods: In this work, we propose a tool for real-time spatio-temporal analysis using a machine learning approach. The COVID-SGIS system brings together routinely collected health data on Covid-19 distributed across public health systems in Brazil, as well as taking to under consideration the geographic and time-dependent features of Covid-19 so as to make spatio-temporal predictions. The data are sub-divided by federative unit and municipality. In our case study, we made spatio-temporal predictions of the distribution of cases and deaths in Brazil and in each federative unit. Four regression methods were investigated: linear regression, support vector machines (polynomial kernels and RBF), multilayer perceptrons, and random forests. We use the percentage RMSE and the correlation coefficient as quality metrics. / Results: For qualitative evaluation, we made spatio-temporal predictions for the period from 25 to 27 May 2020. Considering qualitatively and quantitatively the case of the State of Pernambuco and Brazil as a whole, linear regression presented the best prediction results (thematic maps with good data distribution, correlation coefficient >0.99 and RMSE (%) <4% for Pernambuco and around 5% for Brazil) with low training time: [0.00; 0.04 ms], CI 95%. / Conclusion: Spatio-temporal analysis provided a broader assessment of those in the regions where the accumulated confirmed cases of Covid-19 were concentrated. It was possible to differentiate in the thematic maps the regions with the highest concentration of cases from the regions with low concentration and regions in the transition range. This approach is fundamental to support health managers and epidemiologists to elaborate policies and plans to control the Covid-19 pandemics

Olfactory receptors on the maxillary palps of small ermine moth larvae: evolutionary history of benzaldehyde sensitivity

In lepidopterous larvae the maxillary palps contain a large portion of the sensory equipment of the insect. Yet, knowledge about the sensitivity of these cells is limited. In this paper a morphological, behavioral, and electrophysiological investigation of the maxillary palps of Yponomeuta cagnagellus (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) is presented. In addition to thermoreceptors, CO2 receptors, and gustatory receptors, evidence is reported for the existence of two groups of receptor cells sensitive to plant volatiles. Cells that are mainly sensitive to (E)-2-hexenal and hexanal or to (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol and 1-hexanol were found. Interestingly, a high sensitivity for benzaldehyde was also found. This compound is not known to be present in Euonymus europaeus, the host plant of the monophagous Yponomeuta cagnagellus, but it is a prominent compound in Rosaceae, the presumed hosts of the ancestors of Y. cagnagellus. To elucidate the evolutionary history of this sensitivity, and its possible role in host shifts, feeding responses of three Yponomeuta species to benzaldehyde were investigated. The results confirm the hypothesis that the sensitivity to benzaldehyde evolved during the ancestral shift from Celastraceae to Rosaceae and can be considered an evolutionary relict, retained in the recently backshifted Celastraceae-specialist Y. cagnagellus

Density-Independent Mortality and Increasing Plant Diversity Are Associated with Differentiation of Taraxacum officinale into r- and K-Strategists

Background: Differential selection between clones of apomictic species may result in ecological differentiation without mutation and recombination, thus offering a simple system to study adaptation and life-history evolution in plants. Methodology/Principal Findings: We caused density-independent mortality by weeding to colonizer populations of the largely apomictic Taraxacum officinale (Asteraceae) over a 5-year period in a grassland biodiversity experiment (Jena Experiment). We compared the offspring of colonizer populations with resident populations deliberately sown into similar communities. Plants raised from cuttings and seeds of colonizer and resident populations were grown under uniform conditions. Offspring from colonizer populations had higher reproductive output, which was in general agreement with predictions of r-selection theory. Offspring from resident populations had higher root and leaf biomass, fewer flower heads and higher individual seed mass as predicted under K-selection. Plants grown from cuttings and seeds differed to some degree in the strength, but not in the direction, of their response to the r- vs. K-selection regime. More diverse communities appeared to exert stronger K-selection on resident populations in plants grown from cuttings, while we did not find significant effects of increasing species richness on plants grown from seeds. Conclusions/Significance: Differentiation into r- and K-strategists suggests that clones with characteristics of r-strategists were selected in regularly weeded plots through rapid colonization, while increasing plant diversity favoured the selection of clones with characteristics of K-strategists in resident populations. Our results show that different selection pressures may result in a rapid genetic differentiation within a largely apomictic species. Even under the assumption that colonizer and resident populations, respectively, happened to be r- vs. K-selected already at the start of the experiment, our results still indicate that the association of these strategies with the corresponding selection regimes was maintained during the 5-year experimental period

Congruence and diversity of butterfly-host plant associations at higher taxonomic levels

We aggregated data on butterfly-host plant associations from existing sources in order to address the following questions: (1) is there a general correlation between host diversity and butterfly species richness?, (2) has the evolution of host plant use followed consistent patterns across butterfly lineages?, (3) what is the common ancestral host plant for all butterfly lineages? The compilation included 44,148 records from 5,152 butterfly species (28.6% of worldwide species of Papilionoidea) and 1,193 genera (66.3%). The overwhelming majority of butterflies use angiosperms as host plants. Fabales is used by most species (1,007 spp.) from all seven butterfly families and most subfamilies, Poales is the second most frequently used order, but is mostly restricted to two species-rich subfamilies: Hesperiinae (56.5% of all Hesperiidae), and Satyrinae (42.6% of all Nymphalidae). We found a significant and strong correlation between host plant diversity and butterfly species richness. A global test for congruence (Parafit test) was sensitive to uncertainty in the butterfly cladogram, and suggests a mixed system with congruent associations between Papilionidae and magnoliids, Hesperiidae and monocots, and the remaining subfamilies with the eudicots (fabids and malvids), but also numerous random associations. The congruent associations are also recovered as the most probable ancestral states in each node using maximum likelihood methods. The shift from basal groups to eudicots appears to be more likely than the other way around, with the only exception being a Satyrine-clade within the Nymphalidae that feed on monocots. Our analysis contributes to the visualization of the complex pattern of interactions at superfamily level and provides a context to discuss the timing of changes in host plant utilization that might have promoted diversification in some butterfly lineages

Sequestration and Tissue Accumulation of Human Malaria Parasites: Can We Learn Anything from Rodent Models of Malaria?

The sequestration of Plasmodium falciparum–infected red blood cells (irbcs) in the microvasculature of organs is associated with severe disease; correspondingly, the molecular basis of irbc adherence is an active area of study. In contrast to P. falciparum, much less is known about sequestration in other Plasmodium parasites, including those species that are used as models to study severe malaria. Here, we review the cytoadherence properties of irbcs of the rodent parasite Plasmodium berghei ANKA, where schizonts demonstrate a clear sequestration phenotype. Real-time in vivo imaging of transgenic P. berghei parasites in rodents has revealed a CD36-dependent sequestration in lungs and adipose tissue. In the absence of direct orthologs of the P. falciparum proteins that mediate binding to human CD36, the P. berghei proteins and/or mechanisms of rodent CD36 binding are as yet unknown. In addition to CD36-dependent schizont sequestration, irbcs accumulate during severe disease in different tissues, including the brain. The role of sequestration is discussed in the context of disease as are the general (dis)similarities of P. berghei and P. falciparum sequestration

Does oxytocin lead to emotional interference during a working memory paradigm?

FSW - Self-regulation models for health behavior and psychopathology - ou

A comparison of methods to harmonize cortical thickness measurements across scanners and sites

Results of neuroimaging datasets aggregated from multiple sites may be biased by site-specific profiles in participants' demographic and clinical characteristics, as well as MRI acquisition protocols and scanning platforms. We compared the impact of four different harmonization methods on results obtained from analyses of cortical thickness data: (1) linear mixed-effects model (LME) that models site-specific random intercepts (LME INT), (2) LME that models both site-specific random intercepts and age-related random slopes (LME INT+ SLP), (3) ComBat, and (4) ComBat with a generalized additive model (ComBat-GAM). Our test case for comparing harmonization methods was cortical thickness data aggregated from 29 sites, which included 1,340 cases with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (6.2-81.8 years old) and 2,057 trauma-exposed controls without PTSD (6.3-85.2 years old). We found that, compared to the other data harmonization methods, data processed with ComBat-GAM was more sensitive to the detection of significant case-control differences (X-2 (3) = 63.704, p < 0.001) as well as casecontrol differences in age-related cortical thinning (X-2 (3) = 12.082, p = 0.007). Both ComBat and ComBat-GAM outperformed LME methods in detecting sex differences (X-2 (3) = 9.114, p = 0.028) in regional cortical thickness. ComBat-GAM also led to stronger estimates of age-related declines in cortical thickness (corrected p-values < 0.001), stronger estimates of case-related cortical thickness reduction (corrected p-values < 0.001), weaker estimates of age-related declines in cortical thickness in cases than controls (corrected p-values < 0.001), stronger estimates of cortical thickness reduction in females than males (corrected p-values < 0.001), and stronger estimates of cortical thickness reduction in females relative to males in cases than controls (corrected p-values < 0.001). Our results support the use of ComBat-GAM to minimize confounds and increase statistical power when harmonizing data with non-linear effects, and the use of either ComBat or ComBat-GAM for harmonizing data with linear effects.Stress-related psychiatric disorders across the life spa

Acute abdominal pain and appendicitis in north east Thailand

In a survey of emergency admissions to hospital in rural Thailand, acute appendicitis was the commonest cause of acute abdominal pain. Estimates of the incidence of appendicitis, in two series comprising a total of 356 patients, at 3.2 and 3.7 per 10,000 population per year, were relatively high compared with reports from other warm climate countries. In comparison with 1825 cases in studies sponsored by the Organisation Mondiale de Gastroenterologie (OMGE), Thai patients with acute appendicitis were older, presented late and experienced more complications than those in 14 other countries. In Khon Kaen only 2-3% of the cases were children aged 0-9 years, compared with 9-26% in the OMGE series. In patients admitted to hospital with acute abdominal pain in Thailand, acute appendicitis was diagnosed more often than non-specific abdominal pain. The converse was true in OMGE series. This may reflect the longer distances travelled to hospital by many patients and delays between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital. Acute appendicitis was the commonest definitive diagnosis in both series. This survey indicates that relatively high rates of acute appendicitis may occur in populations eating traditional diets. The results are consistent with the recently described hypothesis of an infective aetiology and increases in appendicitis rates may be expected in people born since the introduction of improvements in environmental sanitation. Further studies are needed to examine trends in the incidence of appendicitis in populations eating traditional diets with both high and low fibre content and to investigate the significance of changing social and environmental factors.link_to_subscribed_fulltex