Aviation turbulence: dynamics, forecasting, and response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future

A teleofunctional account of evolutionary mismatch.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10539-016-9527-1When the environment in which an organism lives deviates in some essential way from that to which it is adapted, this is described as "evolutionary mismatch," or "evolutionary novelty." The notion of mismatch plays an important role, explicitly or implicitly, in evolution-informed cognitive psychology, clinical psychology, and medicine. The evolutionary novelty of our contemporary environment is thought to have significant implications for our health and well-being. However, scientists have generally been working without a clear definition of mismatch. This paper defines mismatch as deviations in the environment that render biological traits unable, or impaired in their ability, to produce their selected effects (i.e., to perform their proper functions in Neander's sense). The machinery developed by Millikan in connection with her account of proper function, and with her related teleosemantic account of representation, is used to identify four major types, and several subtypes, of evolutionary mismatch. While the taxonomy offered here does not in itself resolve any scientific debates, the hope is that it can be used to better formulate empirical hypotheses concerning the effects of mismatch. To illustrate, it is used to show that the controversial hypothesis that general intelligence evolved as an adaptation to handle evolutionary novelty can, contra some critics, be formulated in a conceptually coherent way

Hyperexcitability of the local cortical circuit in mouse models of tuberous sclerosis complex

Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a neurogenetic disorder associated with epilepsy, intellectual disabilities, and autistic behaviors. These neurological symptoms result from synaptic dysregulations, which shift a balance between excitation and inhibition. To decipher the synaptic substrate of hyperexcitability, we examined pan-neuronal Tsc1 knockout mouse and found a reduction in surface expression of a GABA receptor (GABAR) subunit but not AMPA receptor (AMPAR) subunit. Using electrophysiological recordings, we found a significant reduction in the frequency of GABAR-mediated miniature inhibitory postsynaptic currents (GABAR-mIPSCs) but not AMPAR-mediated miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents (AMPAR-mEPSCs) in layer 2/3 pyramidal neurons. To determine a subpopulation of interneurons that are especially vulnerable to the absence of TSC1 function, we also analyzed two strains of conditional knockout mice targeting two of the prominent interneuron subtypes that express parvalbumin (PV) or somatostatin (SST). Unlike pan-neuronal knockout mice, both interneuron-specific Tsc-1 knockout mice did not develop spontaneous seizures and grew into adults. Further, the properties of AMPAR-mEPSCs and GABAR-mIPSCs were normal in both Pv-Cre and Sst-Cre x Tsc1fl/fl knockout mice. These results indicate that removal of TSC1 from all neurons in a local cortical circuit results in hyperexcitability while connections between pyramidal neurons and interneurons expressing PV and SST are preserved in the layer 2/3 visual cortex. Our study suggests that another inhibitory cell type or a combination of multiple subtypes may be accountable for hyperexcitability in TSC. Keywords: Tuberous sclerosis complex; E/I balance; AMPA receptor; GABA receptor; Autism; Epilepsy; mTOR pathwa

Risk propensity in the foreign direct investment location decision of emerging multinationals

A distinguishing feature of emerging economy multinationals is their apparent tolerance for host country institutional risk. Employing behavioral decision theory and quasi-experimental data, we find that managers’ domestic experience satisfaction increases their relative risk propensity regarding controllable risk (legally protectable loss), but decreases their tendency to accept non-controllable risk (e.g., political instability). In contrast, firms’ potential slack reduces relative risk propensity regarding controllable risk, yet amplifies the tendency to take non-controllable risk. We suggest that these counterbalancing effects might help explain observation that risk-taking in FDI location decisions is influenced by firm experience and context. The study provides a new understanding of why firms exhibit heterogeneous responses to host country risks, and the varying effects of institutions

Men's Experiences of the UK Criminal Justice System Following Female-Perpetrated Intimate Partner Violence

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media New York The current study aimed to explore men’s experience of the UK Criminal Justice System (CJS) following female-perpetrated intimate partner violence (IPV). Unstructured face-to-face and Skype interviews were conducted with six men aged between 40–65 years. Interviews were transcribed and analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Due to the method of analysis and the sensitive nature of the research, the researcher engaged in a process of reflexivity. Four main themes were identified, including ‘Guilty until Proven Innocent: Victim Cast as Perpetrator;’ ‘Masculine Identity;’ ‘Psychological Impact’ and ‘Light at the End of the Tunnel.’ Themes were discussed and illustrated with direct quotes drawn from the transcripts. Directions for future research, criminal justice interventions, and therapeutic interventions were discussed

Negative attitudes related to violence against women: gender and ethnic differences among youth living in Serbia

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify to what extent negative attitudes towards intimate partner violence against women are present among young women and men living in Serbia, in Roma and non-Roma settlements. METHODS: We used the data from the 2010 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey conducted in Serbia, for the respondents who were 15-24 years old. Regression analyses were used to examine the association between judgmental attitudes, socio-demographic factors and life satisfaction. RESULTS: In Roma settlements, 34.8% of men and 23.6% of women believed that under certain circumstances men are justified to be violent towards wives, while among non-Roma it was 5.6 and 4.0%, respectively. These negative attitudes were significantly associated with lower educational level, lower socio-economic status and being married. In multivariate model, in both Roma and non-Roma population women who were not married were less judgmental, while the richest Roma men were least judgmental (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Violence prevention activities have to be focused on promoting gender equality among youth in vulnerable population groups such as Roma, especially through social support, strengthening their education and employment

New Insight in Loss of Gut Barrier during Major Non-Abdominal Surgery

PG - e3954 AB - BACKGROUND: Gut barrier loss has been implicated as a critical event in the occurrence of postoperative complications. We aimed to study the development of gut barrier loss in patients undergoing major non-abdominal surgery. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Twenty consecutive children undergoing spinal fusion surgery were included. This kind of surgery is characterized by long operation time, significant blood loss, prolonged systemic hypotension, without directly leading to compromise of the intestines by intestinal manipulation or use of extracorporeal circulation. Blood was collected preoperatively, every two hours during surgery and 2, 4, 15 and 24 hours postoperatively. Gut mucosal barrier was assessed by plasma markers for enterocyte damage (I-FABP, I-BABP) and urinary presence of tight junction protein claudin-3. Intestinal mucosal perfusion was measured by gastric tonometry (P(r)CO2, P(r-a)CO2-gap). Plasma concentration of I-FABP, I-BABP and urinary expression of claudin-3 increased rapidly and significantly after the onset of surgery in most children. Postoperatively, all markers decreased promptly towards baseline values together with normalisation of MAP. Plasma levels of I-FABP, I-BABP were significantly negatively correlated with MAP at (1/2) hour before blood sampling (-0.726 (p<0.001), -0.483 (P<0.001), respectively). Furthermore, circulating I-FABP correlated with gastric mucosal P(r)CO2, P(r-a)CO2-gap measured at the same time points (0.553 (p = 0.040), 0.585 (p = 0.028), respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study shows the development of gut barrier loss in children undergoing major non-abdominal surgery, which is related to preceding hypotension and mesenterial hypoperfusion. These data shed new light on the potential role of peroperative circulatory perturbation and intestinal barrier los

An overview of the statistical methods reported by studies using the Canadian community health survey

BACKGROUND: The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) is a cross-sectional survey that has collected information on health determinants, health status and the utilization of the health system in Canada since 2001. Several hundred articles have been written utilizing the CCHS dataset. Previous analyses of statistical methods utilized in the literature have focused on a particular journal or set of journals to understand the statistical literacy required for understanding the published research. In this study, we describe the statistical methods referenced in the published literature utilizing the CCHS dataset(s). METHODS: A descriptive study was undertaken of references published in Medline, Embase, Web of Knowledge and Scopus associated with the CCHS. These references were imported into a Java application utilizing the searchable Apache Lucene text database and screened based upon pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Full-text PDF articles that met the inclusion criteria were then used for the identification of descriptive, elementary and regression statistical methods referenced in these articles. The identification of statistical methods occurred through an automated search of key words on the full-text articles utilizing the Java application. RESULTS: We identified 4811 references from the 4 bibliographical databases for possible inclusion. After exclusions, 663 references were used for the analysis. Descriptive statistics such as means or proportions were presented in a majority of the articles (97.7%). Elementary-level statistics such as t-tests were less frequently referenced (29.7%) than descriptive statistics. Regression methods were frequently referenced in the articles: 79.8% of articles contained reference to regression in general with logistic regression appearing most frequently in 67.1% of the articles. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows a diverse set of analysis methods being referenced in the CCHS literature, however, the literature heavily relies on only a subset of all possible statistical tools. This information can be used in identifying gaps in statistical methods that could be applied to future analysis of public health surveys, insight into training and educational programs, and also identifies the level of statistical literacy needed to understand the published literature