Economics of fire: exploring fire incident data for a design tool methodology

Fires within the built environment are a fact of life and through design and the application of the building regulations and design codes, the risk of fire to the building occupants can be minimised. However, the building regulations within the UK do not deal with property protection and focus solely on the safety of the building occupants. This research details the statistical analysis of the UK Fire and Rescue Service and the Fire Protection Association s fire incident databases to create a loss model framework, allowing the designers of a buildings fire safety systems to conduct a cost benefit analysis on installing additional fire protection solely for property protection. It finds that statistical analysis of the FDR 1 incident database highlights the data collection methods of the Fire and Rescue Service ideally need to be changed to allow further risk analysis on the UK building stock, that the statistics highlight that the incidents affecting the size of a fire are the time from ignition to discovery and the presence of dangerous materials, that sprinkler activations may not be as high as made out by sprinkler groups and that the activation of an alarm system gives a smaller size fire. The original contribution to knowledge that this PhD makes is to analyse the FDR 1 database to try and create a loss model, using data from both the Fire Protection Association and the Fire and Rescue Service

Chaos in a simple model of a delta network

The flux partitioning in delta networks controls how deltas build land and generate stratigraphy. Here, we study flux-partitioning dynamics in a delta network using a simple numerical model consisting of two orders of bifurcations. Previous work on single bifurcations has shown periodic behavior arising due to the interplay between channel deepening and downstream deposition. We find that coupling between upstream and downstream bifurcations can lead to chaos; despite its simplicity, our model generates surprisingly complex aperiodic yet bounded dynamics. Our model exhibits sensitive dependence on initial conditions, the hallmark signature of chaos, implying long-term unpredictability of delta networks. However, estimates of the predictability horizon suggest substantial room for improvement in delta-network modeling before fundamental limits on predictability are encountered. We also observe periodic windows, implying that a change in forcing (e.g., due to climate change) could cause a delta to switch from predictable to unpredictable or vice versa. We test our model by using it to generate stratigraphy; converting the temporal Lyapunov exponent to vertical distance using the mean sedimentation rate, we observe qualitatively realistic patterns such as upwards fining and scale-dependent compensation statistics, consistent with ancient and experimental systems. We suggest that chaotic behavior may be common in geomorphic systems and that it implies fundamental bounds on their predictability. We conclude that while delta “weather” (precise configuration) is unpredictable in the long-term, delta “climate” (statistical behavior) is predictable

A new method to identify key match-play behaviours of young soccer players: Development of the Hull Soccer Behavioural Scoring Tool

The aim of this research was to assess the validity and reliability of a newly developed scoring tool, designed for monitoring youth soccer players during match-play performance to support coaches/scouts with the talent identification process. The method used to design the Hull Soccer Behavioural Scoring Tool comprised of a five-stage process of (i) conducting an initial literature review to establish content validity (ii) gaining content validity through a cross sectional online survey (iii) establishing face validity via expert coach feedback (iv) conducting inter-rater reliability tests and (v) intra-rater reliability tests. In stage two, twenty-two soccer academy practitioners completed an online survey, which revealed that player behaviours such as resilience, competitiveness, and decision making were all valued as the most important behavioural characteristics by practitioners (90.9%), whilst X-factor was valued as least important by a significant amount (27.2%). Stages three to five of the testing procedure included a sample of four academy coaches not involved in the preceding stages. Twenty male collegiate soccer players (under-16 to under-18) involved in the study took part in four versus four small-sided games (SSG) in a ‘round-robin’ tournament across three weeks which accumulated 14 SSG’s, 100 – 140 minutes of playing time and 70 – 98 individual player grades. Two of the four academy coaches watched the SSG’s and used the Hull Soccer Behavioural Scoring Tool to assess live evidence of desirable player behaviours, which was subsequently followed by retrospective video analysis for intra-rater reliability testing. The remaining two academy coaches watched the same SSG retrospective video footage to test for inter-rater reliability. Reliability results revealed an acceptable level of agreement with scores between 81.25% - 89.9% for inter-rater whilst intra-rater provided scores between 80.35% - 99.4%. Preliminary evidence here suggests that the Hull Soccer Behavioural Scoring Tool is both a valid and reliable method to assess desirable player behaviours during talent identification processes. Thus, youth soccer practitioners and researchers should seek to test and further validate the tool in order to confirm its utility as a means of measuring behavioural characteristics of youth soccer players

Mueller Matrix Parameters for Radio Telescopes and their Observational Determination

Modern digital crosscorrelators permit the simultaneous measurement of all four Stokes parameters. However, the results must be calibrated to correct for the polarization transfer function of the receiving system. The transfer function for any device can be expressed by its Mueller matrix. We express the matrix elements in terms of fundamental system parameters that describe the voltage transfer functions (known as the Jones matrix) of the various system devices in physical terms and thus provide a means for comparing with engineering calculations and investigating the effects of design changes. We describe how to determine these parameters with astronomical observations. We illustrate the method by applying it to some of the receivers at the Arecibo Observatory.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures; accepted for PAS

Fish as major carbonate mud producers and missing components of the tropical carbonate factory

This a post-print, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Copyright © 2011 National Academy of Sciences. The definitive version is available at http://www.pnas.org/content/108/10/3865.fullCarbonate mud is a major constituent of recent marine carbonate sediments and of ancient limestones, which contain unique records of changes in ocean chemistry and climate shifts in the geological past. However, the origin of carbonate mud is controversial and often problematic to resolve. Here we show that tropical marine fish produce and excrete various forms of precipitated (nonskeletal) calcium carbonate from their guts (“low” and “high” Mg-calcite and aragonite), but that very fine-grained (mostly < 2 μm) high Mg-calcite crystallites (i.e., MgCO3) are their dominant excretory product. Crystallites from fish are morphologically diverse and species-specific, but all are unique relative to previously known biogenic and abiotic sources of carbonate within open marine systems. Using site specific fish biomass and carbonate excretion rate data we estimate that fish produce ∼6.1 × 106 kg CaCO3/year across the Bahamian archipelago, all as mud-grade (the < 63 μm fraction) carbonate and thus as a potential sediment constituent. Estimated contributions from fish to total carbonate mud production average ∼14% overall, and exceed 70% in specific habitats. Critically, we also document the widespread presence of these distinctive fish-derived carbonates in the finest sediment fractions from all habitat types in the Bahamas, demonstrating that these carbonates have direct relevance to contemporary carbonate sediment budgets. Fish thus represent a hitherto unrecognized but significant source of fine-grained carbonate sediment, the discovery of which has direct application to the conceptual ideas of how marine carbonate factories function both today and in the past

Impacts of neighbourhood planning in England

Prof. Gavin Parker (University of Reading) Dr Matthew Wargent (University of Reading) Dr Kat Salter (University of Birmingham) Dr Mark Dobson (University of Reading) Dr Tessa Lynn (University of Reading) Dr Andy Yuille (Lancaster University) and Navigus Plannin

Soccer academy practitioners’ perceptions and application of bio-banding

The primary aims of this study were to examine the application of maturity status bio-banding within professional soccer academy programmes and understand the methods employed, the intended objectives, and the potential barriers to bio-banding. Using a mixed method design, twenty-five professional soccer academy practitioners completed an online survey designed to examine their perceptions of the influence of maturation on practice, their perceptions and application of bio-banding, and the perceived barriers to the implementation of this method. Frequency and percentages of responses for individual items were calculated. In the next phase of the study, seven participants who had experience with, or knowledge of, the bio-banding process within an academy youth soccer setting were recruited to complete a semi-structured interview. Interview data was transcribed and analysed using a combination of deductive and inductive approaches to identify key themes. The main findings across the two phases of the study were that [1] there is consensus among the practitioners that the individual effect of maturation impacts their ability to accurately assess the soccer competencies, [2] the majority (80%) of the sample had implemented bio-banding, with practitioners showing a clear preference for using the Khamis and Roche method to bio-band players, with the greatest perceived benefit being during maturity-matched formats, specifically for late or post-PHV players, [3] Practitioners perceived that bio-banding enhances their ability to assess academy soccer players, and [4] practitioners who have used bio-banding believe that the method is an effective way of enhancing the perception of challenge thereby providing a number of psycho-social benefits. Findings suggest that a collaborative and multi-disciplinary approach is required to enhance the likelihood of bio-banding being successfully implemented within the typical training schedules across the adolescent phase of the player development pathway