CONFIDENCE dissemination meeting: summary on the scenario-based workshop

The CONFIDENCE dissemination workshop “Coping with uncertainties for improved modelling and decision making in nuclear emergencies” was held in December 2–5, 2019 (Bratislava, Slovak Republic). About 90 scientists and decision makers attended the workshop. The dissemination workshop allowed the presentation of the CONFIDENCE project results, demonstration of the applicability of the developed methods and tools in interactive discussion sessions and the collection of feedback from the participants. The results were disseminated not only in the form of presentations and posters but also through interactive workshops where all participants were involved in round table working groups. A fictive accidental release scenario taking place at a nuclear power plant was developed and used by each work package in the workshop to provide the basis for interactive sessions and discussions

Risk accelerators in disasters : insights from the typhoon Haiyan response on humanitarian information management and decision support

Published version of a chapter in the book: Advanced Information Systems Engineering. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07881-6_2Modern societies are increasingly threatened by disasters that require rapid response through ad-hoc collaboration among a variety of actors and organizations. The complexity within and across today's societal, economic and environmental systems defies accurate predictions and assessments of damages, humanitarian needs, and the impact of aid. Yet, decision-makers need to plan, manage and execute aid response under conditions of high uncertainty while being prepared for further disruptions and failures. This paper argues that these challenges require a paradigm shift: instead of seeking optimality and full efficiency of procedures and plans, strategies should be developed that enable an acceptable level of aid under all foreseeable eventualities. We propose a decision- and goal-oriented approach that uses scenarios to systematically explore future developments that may have a major impact on the outcome of a decision. We discuss to what extent this approach supports robust decision-making, particularly if time is short and the availability of experts is limited. We interlace our theoretical findings with insights from experienced humanitarian decision makers we interviewed during a field research trip to the Philippines in the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan

Size Doesn't Matter: Towards a More Inclusive Philosophy of Biology

notes: As the primary author, O’Malley drafted the paper, and gathered and analysed data (scientific papers and talks). Conceptual analysis was conducted by both authors.publication-status: Publishedtypes: ArticlePhilosophers of biology, along with everyone else, generally perceive life to fall into two broad categories, the microbes and macrobes, and then pay most of their attention to the latter. ‘Macrobe’ is the word we propose for larger life forms, and we use it as part of an argument for microbial equality. We suggest that taking more notice of microbes – the dominant life form on the planet, both now and throughout evolutionary history – will transform some of the philosophy of biology’s standard ideas on ontology, evolution, taxonomy and biodiversity. We set out a number of recent developments in microbiology – including biofilm formation, chemotaxis, quorum sensing and gene transfer – that highlight microbial capacities for cooperation and communication and break down conventional thinking that microbes are solely or primarily single-celled organisms. These insights also bring new perspectives to the levels of selection debate, as well as to discussions of the evolution and nature of multicellularity, and to neo-Darwinian understandings of evolutionary mechanisms. We show how these revisions lead to further complications for microbial classification and the philosophies of systematics and biodiversity. Incorporating microbial insights into the philosophy of biology will challenge many of its assumptions, but also give greater scope and depth to its investigations

A twenty year reversal in water mass trends in the subtropical North Atlantic

Temperature and salinity changes have been compared along three repeat sections at 36°N in the North Atlantic. The principal changes, cooling of the upper waters and warming of the intermediate waters observed between 1959 and 1981, were reversed between 1981 and 2005. The controlling mechanisms for the changes over the two time periods differed through the water column. Neutral density surfaces over the upper 800 m were firstly uplifted and secondly depressed by typically 50 m, which is broadly consistent with the changes in thermocline thickness implied by the temporal changes in Ekman pumping. In contrast, the intermediate waters (800–2500 m) firstly became warmer and saltier and secondly became cooler and fresher. This change in the intermediate waters was controlled by water mass changes along neutral density surfaces suggesting a change in the source waters, principally Labrador Sea Water and Mediterranean Outflow Water

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume

Ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling following the accidental release of radioactive material

During the pre-release and early phase of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere there are few or no measurements, and dispersion models are used to assess the consequences and assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. However, uncertainties are high during this early phase and it is important to characterise these uncertainties and, if possible, include them in any dispersion modelling. In this paper we examine three sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling; uncertainty in the source term, uncertainty in the meteorological information used to drive the dispersion model and intrinsic uncertainty within the dispersion model. We also explore the possibility of ranking these uncertainties dependent on their impact on the dispersion model outputs