Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities

Key findings and recommendations: • This research has addressed the challenge of surface water flood forecasting by producing the UK’s first operational surface water flood risk forecast with a 24-hour lead time. This was successfully used in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games in 2014. • The methodology of the Glasgow Pilot has been developed to use nationally available datasets and a transferrable approach which will help urban areas in Scotland improve their resilience to and preparedness for future flooding. • It also delivered a novel method for forecasting the impacts of flooding in real-time and increased knowledge on communicating uncertainties in flood risk. • A real-time forecasting system for surface water flooding from intense rainfall needs to use models that represent surface runoff production, surface water inundation and movement, and how water travels via surface and sub-surface pathways, including urban sewerage and drainage networks. Ensemble rainfall prediction models are key to quantifying uncertainty in forecasting the rainfall that causes surface water flooding. • Detailed surface water flood inundation models exist and are widely used in design and research activities, but none were found to be ready for real-time use. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model was chosen for used in the Glasgow Pilot as it can provide ensemble forecasts of surface water flooding, and takes account of the intensity and pattern of rainfall, land cover and slope, and antecedent conditions. • The research developed a novel methodology for impact assessment that links surface runoff to the severity of flooding impacts on people, property and transport. Use is made of a library of information based on SEPA’s Regional Pluvial (rainfall-related) Flood Hazard maps. • For the Glasgow Pilot, G2G was operated over a 10km by 10km area encompassing Glasgow’s East End and the main areas of activity for the 2014 Commonwealth Games. The research team developed an operational application, called FEWS Glasgow, to support running the model in real-time and reporting on the likely impacts of surface water flooding. A new Daily Glasgow Daily Surface Water Flood Forecast was designed and produced based on operational requirements and emergency responder feedback

Genomic epidemiology of clinical Campylobacter spp. at a single health trust site

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Microbiology Society. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence. The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.1099/mgen.0.000227Campylobacter is the leading cause of bacterial enteritis in the developed world, and infections with the organism are largely sporadic in nature. Links between sporadic cases have not been established, with the majority of infections thought to be caused by genetically distinct isolates. Using a read-mapping approach, 158 clinical isolates collected during 2014 from the greater Nottinghamshire area were analysed to assess the local population structure and investigate potential case linkages between sporadic cases of campylobacteriosis. Four instances (2.5 %) of case linkage were observed across the dataset. This study demonstrates that case linkage does occur between sporadic Campylobacter infections, and provides evidence that a dual multi-locus sequence typing/within-lineage single nucleotide polymorphism typing approach to Campylobacter genomic epidemiology provides a benefit to public-health investigations.Nottingham Trent Universit

Rofecoxib and cardiovascular adverse events in adjuvant treatment of colorectal cancer

Background Selective cyclooxygenase inhibitors may retard the progression of cancer, but they have enhanced thrombotic potential. We report on cardiovascular adverse events in patients receiving rofecoxib to reduce rates of recurrence of colorectal cancer. Methods All serious adverse events that were cardiovascular thrombotic events were reviewed in 2434 patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer participating in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of rofecoxib, 25 mg daily, started after potentially curative tumor resection and chemotherapy or radiotherapy as indicated. The trial was terminated prematurely owing to worldwide withdrawal of rofecoxib. To examine possible persistent risks, we examined cardiovascular thrombotic events reported up to 24 months after the trial was closed. Results The median duration of active treatment was 7.4 months. The 1167 patients receiving rofecoxib and the 1160 patients receiving placebo were well matched, with a median follow-up period of 33.0 months (interquartile range, 27.6 to 40.1) and 33.4 months (27.7 to 40.4), respectively. Of the 23 confirmed cardiovascular thrombotic events, 16 occurred in the rofecoxib group during or within 14 days after the treatment period, with an estimated relative risk of 2.66 (from the Cox proportional-hazards model; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 6.86; P = 0.04). Analysis of the Antiplatelet Trialists’ Collaboration end point (the combined incidence of death from cardiovascular, hemorrhagic, and unknown causes; of nonfatal myocardial infarction; and of nonfatal ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke) gave an unadjusted relative risk of 1.60 (95% CI, 0.57 to 4.51; P = 0.37). Fourteen more cardiovascular thrombotic events, six in the rofecoxib group, were reported within the 2 years after trial closure, with an overall unadjusted relative risk of 1.50 (95% CI, 0.76 to 2.94; P = 0.24). Four patients in the rofecoxib group and two in the placebo group died from thrombotic causes during or within 14 days after the treatment period, and during the follow-up period, one patient in the rofecoxib group and five patients in the placebo group died from cardiovascular causes. Conclusions Rofecoxib therapy was associated with an increased frequency of adverse cardiovascular events among patients with a median study treatment of 7.4 months’ duration. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN98278138.

Larval mortality rates and population dynamics of Lesser Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) in the northwestern North Sea

Intense fishing of a stock of sandeels (Ammodytes marinus) on the sand banks off the Firth of Forth, northeast Scotland, during the 1990s led to a decline in catch per unit effort to uneconomic levels and collateral failures of piscivorous seabird breeding success at nearby colonies. A prohibition on fishing in 1999 was followed by a short-term recovery of stock biomass, but then a sustained decline to very low levels of abundance. Demographic survey data show that despite the decline in stock, recruit abundance was maintained implying an increasing larval survival rate, and that the stock decline was not due to recruitment failure. To verify this hypothesis we analysed a 10-year long data set of weekly catches of sandeel larvae at a nearby plankton monitoring site to determine the patterns of larval mortality and dispersal. We found that the loss rate of larvae up to 20 d age decreased over time, corresponding with the trend in survival rate implied by the stock demography data. The pattern of loss rate in relation to hatchling abundance implied that mortality may have been density dependent. Our study rules out increased larval mortality as the primary cause of decline in the sandeel stock

Evidence for strain-specific virulence of <i>Trichomonas gallinae</i> in African columbiformes

Infection by parasites or pathogens can have marked physiological impacts on individuals. In birds, infection may affect moult and feather growth, which is an energetically demanding time in the annual cycle. Previous work has suggested a potential link between clinically visible Trichomonas gallinae infection and wing length in turtle doves Streptopelia turtur arriving on breeding grounds. First, T. gallinae infection was characterized in 149 columbids from 5 species, sampled on turtle dove wintering grounds in Senegal during the moulting period, testing whether infection by T. gallinae is linked to moult. Trichomonas gallinae prevalence was 100%, so rather than testing for differences between infected and uninfected birds, we tested for differences in moult progression between birds infected by different T. gallinae strains. Twelve strains of T. gallinae were characterized at the internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)/5.8S/ITS2 region, of which 6 were newly identified within this study. In turtle doves only, evidence for differences in wing length by strain was found, with birds infected by strain Tcl-1 having wings nearly 6 mm longer than those infected with strain GEO. No evidence was found for an effect of strain identity within species on moult progression, but comparisons between infected and uninfected birds should be further investigated in species where prevalence is lower

Multigluon Helicity Amplitudes Involving a Quark Loop

We apply the solution to the recursion relation for the double-off-shell quark current to the problem of computing one loop amplitudes with an arbitrary number of gluons. We are able to compute amplitudes for photon-gluon scattering, electron-positron annihilation to gluons, and gluon-gluon scattering via a quark loop in the case of like-helicity gluons. In addition, we present the result for the one-loop gluon-gluon scattering amplitude when one of the gluons has opposite helicity from the others.Comment: 31 pages (RevTeX) + 2 uuencoded figures (included), Fermilab-Pub-93/389-

Translation to practice: a randomised controlled study of an evidenced based booklet targeted at breast care nurses in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom (UK), it was documented that a problem of knowledge transfer existed within the speciality of breast-cancer care, thus depriving patients of receiving optimal care. Despite increasingly robust research evidence indicating recommendation of whole body exercise for people affected by breast cancer, commensurate changes to practice were not noted amongst breast-care nurses (BCNs). AIM: To evaluate the effect of a targeted booklet, Exercise and Breast Cancer: A Booklet for Breast-Care Nurses, on changes in knowledge, reported practice, and attitudes of BCNs in the UK. METHOD: A prospective, experimental approach was used for designing a pre- and post-test randomised controlled study. Comparisons of knowledge, reported practice, and attitudes based on responses to a questionnaire were made at two time-points in two groups of BCNs (control and experimental). The unit of randomisation and analysis was hospital clusters of BCNs. The sample comprised 92 nurses from 62 hospitals. Analysis consisted of descriptive statistics and clustered regression techniques: clustered logistic regression for knowledge items, clustered linear regression for knowledge scores, ologit for attitude and reported practice items, and clustered multiple regression for paired and multiple variable analysis. RESULTS: A statistically significant increase in knowledge and changes in reported practice and attitudes were found. Robust variables affecting knowledge acquisition were: promotion of health, promotion of exercise, and understanding how exercise can reduce cancer-related fatigue. DISCUSSION: The study has shown that evidence-based printed material, such as an information booklet, can be used as an effective research dissemination method when developed for needs, values, and context of a target audience. CONCLUSIONS: This practical approach to research dissemination could be replicated and applied to other groups of nurses.</p

Symptom burden according to dialysis day of the week in three times a week haemodialysis patients

Background Haemodialysis patients experience significant symptom burden and effects on healthrelated quality of life. Studies have shown increases in fluid overload, hospitalization and mortality immediately after the long interdialytic interval in thrice weekly in-centre haemodialysis patients, however the relationship between the dialytic interval and patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) has not been quantified and the extent to which dialysis day of PROM completion needs to be standardised is unknown. Methods Three times a week haemodialysis patients participating in a stepped wedge trial to increase patient participation in haemodialysis tasks completed PROMs (POS-S Renal symptom score and EQ-5D-5L) at recruitment, six, 12 and 18 months. Time from the long interdialytic interval, HD day of the week, and HD days vs non-HD days were included in mixed effects Linear Regression, estimating severity (none to overwhelming treated as 0 to 4) of 17 symptoms and EQ-5D-5L, adjusting for age, sex, time on HD, control versus intervention and Charlson Comorbidity Score. Results 517 patients completed 1659 YHS questionnaires that could be assigned HD day (510 on Mon/Tue/Sun, 549 on Wed/Thu/Tue, 308 on Fri/Sat/Thu and 269 on non-HD days). With the exception of restless legs and skin changes, there was no statistically significant change in symptom severity or EQ-5D-5L with increasing time from the long interdialytic interval. Patients who responded on non-HD days had higher severity of poor appetite, constipation, difficulty sleeping, poor mobility and depression (approximately 0.2 severity level), and lower EQ-5D-5L (-0.06, CI -0.09 to -0.03) compared to HD days. PLOS ONE PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274599 September 27, 2022 1 / 13 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Hnynn Si PE, Gair R, Barnes T, Dunn L, Lee S, Ariss S, et al. (2022) Symptom burden according to dialysis day of the week in three times a week haemodialysis patients. PLoS ONE 17(9): e0274599. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0274599 Editor: Gianpaolo Reboldi, Universita degli Studi di Perugia, ITALY Received: August 8, 2021 Accepted: August 31, 2022 Published: September 27, 2022 Peer Review History: PLOS recognizes the benefits of transparency in the peer review process; therefore, we enable the publication of all of the content of peer review and author responses alongside final, published articles. The editorial history of this article is available here: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274599 Copyright: © 2022 Hnynn Si et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: A minimal dataset required to reach the conclusions drawn from this manuscript required the linkage of identifiable patient information collected during the trial to Conclusions Measuring symptom severity and EQ-5D-5L in haemodialysis populations does not need to account for dialysis schedule, but completion either on HD or non-HD days could introduce bias that may impact evaluation of interventions. Researchers should ensure completion of these instruments are standardized on either dialysis or non-dialysis days