Prey selection by an apex predator : the importance of sampling uncertainty.

The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus of ecologists, but a firm understanding of the factors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selection may reflect true differences in the ecology of different communities but might also reflect a failure to deal adequately with uncertainties in the underlying data. Indeed, our review showed that less than 10% of studies of European wolf predation accounted for sampling uncertainty. Here, we relate annual variability in wolf diet to prey availability and examine temporal patterns in prey selection; in particular, we identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regarding prey selection. Over nine years, we collected 1,974 wolf scats and conducted drive censuses of ungulates in Alpe di Catenaia, Italy. We bootstrapped scat and census data within years to construct confidence intervals around estimates of prey use, availability and selection. Wolf diet was dominated by boar (61.5±3.90 [SE] % of biomass eaten) and roe deer (33.7±3.61%). Temporal patterns of prey densities revealed that the proportion of roe deer in wolf diet peaked when boar densities were low, not when roe deer densities were highest. Considering only the two dominant prey types, Manly's standardized selection index using all data across years indicated selection for boar (mean = 0.73±0.023). However, sampling error resulted in wide confidence intervals around estimates of prey selection. Thus, despite considerable variation in yearly estimates, confidence intervals for all years overlapped. Failing to consider such uncertainty could lead erroneously to the assumption of differences in prey selection among years. This study highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in relative prey availability and accounting for sampling uncertainty when interpreting the results of dietary studies

Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results: The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion: Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person

Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds

Aim The conservation value of sites is often based on species richness (SR).However, metrics of phylogenetic diversity (PD) reflect a community’s evolu-tionary potential and reveal the potential for additional conservation valueabove that based purely on SR. Although PD is typically correlated with SR,localized differences in this relationship have been found in different taxa.Here, we explore geographical variation in global avian PD. We identify wherePD is higher or lower than expected (from SR) and explore correlates of thosedifferences, to find communities with high irreplaceability, in terms of theuniqueness of evolutionary histories.Location Global terrestrial.Methods Using comprehensive avian phylogenies and global distributionaldata for all extant birds, we calculated SR and Faith’s PD, a widely appliedmeasure of community PD, across the terrestrial world. We modelled the rela-tionship between avian PD for terrestrial birds and its potential environmentalcorrelates. Analyses were conducted at a global scale and also for individualbiogeographical realms. Potential explanatory variables of PD included SR,long-term climate stability, climatic diversity (using altitudinal range as aproxy), habitat diversity and proximity to neighbouring realms.Results We identified areas of high and low relative PD (rPD; PD relative tothat expected given SR). Areas of high rPD were associated with deserts andislands, while areas of low rPD were associated with historical glaciation. Ourresults suggest that rPD is correlated with different environmental variables indifferent parts of the world.Main conclusions There is geographical variation in avian rPD, much ofwhich can be explained by putative drivers. However, the importance of thesedrivers shows pronounced regional variation. Moreover, the variation in avianrPD differs substantially from patterns found for mammals and amphibians.We suggest that PD adds additional insights about the irreplaceability of com-munities to conventional metrics of biodiversity based on SR, and could beusefully included in assessments of site valuation and prioritizatio

Contrasting life histories in neighbouring populations of a large mammal

Background: A fundamental life history question is how individuals should allocate resources to reproduction optimally over time (reproductive allocation). The reproductive restraint hypothesis predicts that reproductive effort (RE; the allocation of resources to current reproduction) should peak at prime-age, whilst the terminal investment hypothesis predicts that individuals should continue to invest more resources in reproduction throughout life, owing to an ever-decreasing residual reproductive value. There is evidence supporting both hypotheses in the scientific literature. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used an uncommonly large, 38 year dataset on Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) shot at various times during the rutting period to test these two hypotheses. We assumed that body mass loss in rutting males was strongly related to RE and, using a process-based approach, modelled how male relative mass loss rates varied with age. For different regions of our study area, we provide evidence consistent with different hypotheses for reproductive allocation. In sites where RE declined in older age, this appears to be strongly linked to declining body condition in old males. In this species, terminal investment may only occur in areas with lower rates of body mass senescence. Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that patterns of reproductive allocation may be more plastic than previously thought. It appears that there is a continuum from downturns in RE at old age to terminal investment that can be manifest, even across adjacent populations. Our work identifies uncertainty in the relationship between reproductive restraint and a lack of competitive ability in older life (driven by body mass senescence); both could explain a decline in RE in old age and may be hard to disentangle in empirical data. We discuss a number of environmental and anthropogenic factors which could influence reproductive life histories, underlining that life history patterns should not be generalised across different populations

Efficacy of pimobendan in the prevention of congestive heart failure or sudden death in doberman pinschers with preclinical dilated cardiomyopathy (the PROTECT study)

<p>Background: The benefit of pimobendan in delaying the progression of preclinical dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in Dobermans is not reported.</p> <p>Hypothesis: That chronic oral administration of pimobendan to Dobermans with preclinical DCM will delay the onset of CHF or sudden death and improve survival.</p> <p>Animals: Seventy-six client-owned Dobermans recruited at 10 centers in the UK and North America.</p> <p>Methods: The trial was a randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, parallel group multicenter study. Dogs were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive pimobendan (Vetmedin capsules) or visually identical placebo.</p> <p>The composite primary endpoint was prospectively defined as either onset of CHF or sudden death. Time to death from all causes was a secondary endpoint.</p> <p>Results: The proportion of dogs reaching the primary endpoint was not significantly different between groups (P = .1). The median time to the primary endpoint (onset of CHF or sudden death) was significantly longer in the pimobendan (718 days, IQR 441–1152 days) versus the placebo group (441 days, IQR 151–641 days) (log-rank P = 0.0088). The median survival time was significantly longer in the pimobendan (623 days, IQR 491–1531 days) versus the placebo group (466 days, IQR 236–710 days) (log-rank P = .034).</p> <p>Conclusion and Clinical Importance: The administration of pimobendan to Dobermans with preclinical DCM prolongs the time to the onset of clinical signs and extends survival. Treatment of dogs in the preclinical phase of this common cardiovascular disorder with pimobendan can lead to improved outcome.</p&gt

Measurement of B(D_s+ -> mu+ nu_mu)/B(D_s+ -> phi mu+ nu_mu) and Determination of the Decay Constant f_{D_s}

We have observed $23.2 \pm 6.0_{-0.9}^{+1.0}$ purely-leptonic decays of $D_s^+ -> \mu^+ \nu_\mu$ from a sample of muonic one prong decay events detected in the emulsion target of Fermilab experiment E653. Using the $D_s^+ -> \phi \mu^+ \nu_\mu$ yield measured previously in this experiment, we obtain $B(D_s^+ --> \mu^+ \nu_\mu) / B(D_s^+ --> \phi \mu^+ \nu_\mu) =0.16 \pm 0.06 \pm 0.03$. In addition, we extract the decay constant $f_{D_s}=194 \pm 35 \pm 20 \pm 14 MeV$.Comment: 15 pages including one figur

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society

Search for Tensor, Vector, and Scalar Polarizations in the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

The detection of gravitational waves with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo has enabled novel tests of general relativity, including direct study of the polarization of gravitational waves. While general relativity allows for only two tensor gravitational-wave polarizations, general metric theories can additionally predict two vector and two scalar polarizations. The polarization of gravitational waves is encoded in the spectral shape of the stochastic gravitational-wave background, formed by the superposition of cosmological and individually unresolved astrophysical sources. Using data recorded by Advanced LIGO during its first observing run, we search for a stochastic background of generically polarized gravitational waves. We find no evidence for a background of any polarization, and place the first direct bounds on the contributions of vector and scalar polarizations to the stochastic background. Under log-uniform priors for the energy in each polarization, we limit the energy densities of tensor, vector, and scalar modes at 95% credibility to Ω0T<5.58×10-8, Ω0V<6.35×10-8, and Ω0S<1.08×10-7 at a reference frequency f0=25 Hz. © 2018 American Physical Society

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10-5 and 9.4×10-4 Mpc-3 yr-1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves. © 2016 American Physical Society

Erratum: "A Gravitational-wave Measurement of the Hubble Constant Following the Second Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo" (2021, ApJ, 909, 218)

[no abstract available