Forecasting GOES 15 >2 MeV electron fluxes from solar wind data and geomagnetic indices

The flux of > 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is used by space weather forecasters as a key indicator of enhanced risk of damage to spacecraft in low, medium or geosynchronous Earth orbits. We present a methodology that uses the amount of time a single input dataset (solar wind data or geomagnetic indices) exceeds a given threshold to produce deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the > 2 MeV flux at GEO exceeding 1000 or 10000 cm‐2 s‐1 sr‐1 within up to 10 days. By comparing our forecasts with measured fluxes from GOES 15 between 2014 and 2016, we determine the optimum forecast thresholds for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts by maximising the ROC and Brier Skill Scores respectively. The training dataset gives peak ROC scores of 0.71 to 0.87 and peak Brier Skill Scores of ‐0.03 to 0.32. Forecasts from AL give the highest skill scores for forecasts of up to 6‐days. AL, solar wind pressure or SYM‐H give the highest skill scores over 7‐10 days. Hit rates range over 56‐89% with false alarm rates of 11‐53%. Applied to 2012, 2013 and 2017, our best forecasts have hit rates of 56‐83% and false alarm rates of 10‐20%. Further tuning of the forecasts may improve these. Our hit rates are comparable to those from operational fluence forecasts, that incorporate fluence measurements, but our false alarm rates are higher. This proof‐of‐concept shows that the geosynchronous electron flux can be forecast with a degree of success without incorporating a persistence element into the forecasts

Spin Fidelity for Three-qubit Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and W States Under Lorentz Transformations

Constructing the reduced density matrix for a system of three massive spin$-\frac{1}{2}$ particles described by a wave packet with Gaussian momentum distribution and a spin part in the form of GHZ or W state, the fidelity for the spin part of the system is investigated from the viewpoint of moving observers in the jargon of special relativity. Using a numerical approach, it turns out that by increasing the boost speed, the spin fidelity decreases and reaches to a non-zero asymptotic value that depends on the momentum distribution and the amount of momentum entanglement.Comment: 12pages, 2 figure

Black Rings, Supertubes, and a Stringy Resolution of Black Hole Non-Uniqueness

In order to address the issues raised by the recent discovery of non-uniqueness of black holes in five dimensions, we construct a solution of string theory at low energies describing a five-dimensional spinning black ring with three charges that can be interpreted as D1-brane, D5-brane, and momentum charges. The solution possesses closed timelike curves (CTCs) and other pathologies, whose origin we clarify. These pathologies can be avoided by setting any one of the charges, e.g. the momentum, to zero. We argue that the D1-D5-charged black ring, lifted to six dimensions, describes the thermal excitation of a supersymmetric D1-D5 supertube, which is in the same U-duality class as the D0-F1 supertube. We explain how the stringy microscopic description of the D1-D5 system distinguishes between a spherical black hole and a black ring with the same asymptotic charges, and therefore provides a (partial) resolution of the non-uniqueness of black holes in five dimensions.Comment: 33 pages, 1 figur

Cross-L* coherence of the outer radiation belt during 2 storms and the role of the plasmapause

The high energy electron population in Earth’s outer radiation belt is extremely variable, changing by multiple orders of magnitude on timescales that vary from under an hour to several weeks. These changes are typically linked to geomagnetic activity such as storms and substorms. In this study, we seek to understand how coherent changes in the radiation belt are across all radial distances, in order to provide a spatial insight into apparent global variations. We do this by calculating the correlation between fluxes on different L* measured by the PET instrument aboard the SAMPEX spacecraft for times associated with 15 large storms. Our results show that during these times, variations in the 0.63 MeV electron flux are coherent outside the minimum plasmapause location and also coherent inside the minimum plasmapause location, when flux is present. However, variations in the electron fluxes inside the plasmapause show little correlation with those outside the plasmapause. During storm recovery and possibly main phases, flux variations are coherent across all L* regardless of plasmapause location, due to a rapid decrease, followed by an increase in radiation belt fluxes across all L*

An action for the exact string black hole

A local action is constructed describing the exact string black hole discovered by Dijkgraaf, Verlinde and Verlinde in 1992. It turns out to be a special 2D Maxwell-dilaton gravity theory, linear in curvature and field strength. Two constants of motion exist: mass M>1, determined by the level k, and U(1)-charge Q>0, determined by the value of the dilaton at the origin. ADM mass, Hawking temperature T_H \propto \sqrt{1-1/M} and Bekenstein-Hawking entropy are derived and studied in detail. Winding/momentum mode duality implies the existence of a similar action, arising from a branch ambiguity, which describes the exact string naked singularity. In the strong coupling limit the solution dual to AdS_2 is found to be the 5D Schwarzschild black hole. Some applications to black hole thermodynamics and 2D string theory are discussed and generalizations - supersymmetric extension, coupling to matter and critical collapse, quantization - are pointed out.Comment: 41 pages, 2 eps figures, dedicated to Wolfgang Kummer on occasion of his Emeritierung; v2: added ref; v3: extended discussion in sections 3.2, 3.3 and at the end of 5.3 by adding 2 pages of clarifying text; updated refs; corrected typo

Effects of sleep deprivation on neural functioning: an integrative review

Sleep deprivation has a broad variety of effects on human performance and neural functioning that manifest themselves at different levels of description. On a macroscopic level, sleep deprivation mainly affects executive functions, especially in novel tasks. Macroscopic and mesoscopic effects of sleep deprivation on brain activity include reduced cortical responsiveness to incoming stimuli, reflecting reduced attention. On a microscopic level, sleep deprivation is associated with increased levels of adenosine, a neuromodulator that has a general inhibitory effect on neural activity. The inhibition of cholinergic nuclei appears particularly relevant, as the associated decrease in cortical acetylcholine seems to cause effects of sleep deprivation on macroscopic brain activity. In general, however, the relationships between the neural effects of sleep deprivation across observation scales are poorly understood and uncovering these relationships should be a primary target in future research

Achievements and Challenges in the Science of Space Weather

In June 2016 a group of 40 space weather scientists attended the workshop on Scientific Foundations of Space Weather at the International Space Science Institute in Bern. In this lead article to the volume based on the talks and discussions during the workshop we review some of main past achievements in the field and outline some of the challenges that the science of space weather is facing today and in the future.Peer reviewe

Impact of Chlamydia trachomatis in the reproductive setting: British Fertility Society Guidelines for practice

Chlamydia trachomatis infection of the genital tract is the most common sexually transmitted infection and has a world-wide distribution. The consequences of infection have an adverse effect on the reproductive health of women and are a common cause of infertility. Recent evidence also suggests an adverse effect on male reproduction. There is a need to standardise the approach in managing the impact of C. trachomatis infection on reproductive health. We have surveyed current UK practice towards screening and management of Chlamydia infections in the fertility setting. We found that at least 90% of clinicians surveyed offered screening. The literature on this topic was examined and revealed a paucity of solid evidence for estimating the risks of long-term reproductive sequelae following lower genital tract infection with C. trachomatis. The mechanism for the damage that occurs after Chlamydial infections is uncertain. However, instrumentation of the uterus in women with C. trachomatis infection is associated with a high risk of pelvic inflammatory disease, which can be prevented by appropriate antibiotic treatment and may prevent infected women from being at increased risk of the adverse sequelae, such as ectopic pregnancy and tubal factor infertility. Recommendations for practice have been proposed and the need for further studies is identified