On worst-case investment with applications in finance and insurance mathematics

We review recent results on the new concept of worst-case portfolio optimization, i.e. we consider the determination of portfolio processes which yield the highest worst-case expected utility bound if the stock price may have uncertain (down) jumps. The optimal portfolios are derived as solutions of non-linear differential equations which itself are consequences of a Bellman principle for worst-case bounds. They are by construction non-constant ones and thus differ from the usual constant optimal portfolios in the classical examples of the Merton problem. A particular application of such strategies is to model crash possibilities where both the number and the height of the crash is uncertain but bounded. We further solve optimal investment problems in the presence of an additional risk process which is the typical situation of an insurer

A meta-analysis of variables that predict significant intracranial injury in minor head trauma.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have presented conflicting results regarding the predictive effect of various clinical symptoms, signs, and plain imaging for intracranial pathology in children with minor head injury. AIMS: To perform a meta-analysis of the literature in order to assess the significance of these factors and intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) in the paediatric population. METHODS: The literature was searched using Medline, Embase, Experts, and the grey literature. Reference lists of major guidelines were crosschecked. Control or nested case-control studies of children with head injury who had skull radiography, recording of common symptoms and signs, and head computed tomography (CT) were selected. OUTCOME VARIABLE: CT presence or absence of ICH. RESULTS: Sixteen papers were identified as satisfying criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis, although not every paper contained data on every correlate. Available evidence gave pooled patient numbers from 1136 to 22 420. Skull fracture gave a relative risk ratio of 6.13 (95% CI 3.35 to 11.2), headache 1.02 (95% CI 0.62 to 1.69), vomiting 0.88 (95% CI 0.67 to 1.15), focal neurology 9.43 (2.89 to 30.8), seizures 2.82 (95% CI 0.89 to 9.00), LOC 2.23 (95% CI 1.20 to 4.16), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) <15 of 5.51 (95% CI 1.59 to 19.0). CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant correlation between intracranial haemorrhage and skull fracture, focal neurology, loss of consciousness, and GCS abnormality. Headache and vomiting were not found to be predictive and there was great variability in the predictive ability of seizures. More information is required about the current predictor variables so that more refined guidelines can be developed. Further research is currently underway by three large study groups

Physical activity patterns in a nationally representative sample of adults in Ireland

Original article can be found at: http://journals.cambridge.org/ Copyright - the authors. DOI: 10.1079/PHN2001192Objective To evaluate habitual levels of physical activity in a nationally representative sample of adults in Ireland. Design Cross-sectional survey using a self-administered questionnaire. Usual levels of work, recreational and household activities were evaluated in relation to anthropometric, demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The amount and intensity of all activities were quantified by assigning metabolic equivalents (METS) to each activity. Setting Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, 1997–1999. Subjects Random sample of 1379 adults aged 18–64 years. Results Men were approximately twice as active in work and recreational activity (139.7 ± 83.9 METS) as women (68.5 ± 49.8 METS; P 28kg m−2) or obese (BMI > 30kg m−2). Fewer obese subjects reported higher levels of work and leisure activities. However, a higher percentage of obese women reported participation in the higher levels of household activities. Participation rates in recreational activities were low. Walking was the most important leisure activity of both men (41%) and women (60%). In terms of hours per week spent in vigorous physical activity, men were more active than women, professional and skilled non-manual women were more active than women in other social classes, and younger subjects (aged 18–35 years) were more active than older subjects. Conclusions The holistic approach used in the assessment of physical activity in this study has revealed important and subtle differences in the activity patterns of men and women. Failure to fully characterise the respective activity patterns of men and women could lead to ill-informed public health policy aimed at promoting and sustaining lifetime habits of physical activity. The results suggest that simple population-focused programmes to promote physical activity are unlikely to offer the same chance of long-term success as more sensitive and individualised strategies.Peer reviewe

A survey of polarization in the JVAS/CLASS flat-spectrum radio source surveys: I. The data and catalogue production

We have used the very large JVAS/CLASS 8.4-GHz surveys of flat-spectrum radio sources to obtain a large, uniformly observed and calibrated, sample of radio source polarizations. These are useful for many investigations of the properties of radio sources and the interstellar medium. We discuss comparisons with polarization measurements from this survey and from other large-scale surveys of polarization in flat-spectrum sources.Comment: Accepted by MNRAS. 8 pages, 5 figures. Full version of Table 2 available at http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/~njj/classqu_po

The Co-occurrence of child and intimate partner maltreatment in the family: characteristics of the violent perpetrators

This study considers the characteristics associated with mothers and fathers who maltreat their child and each other in comparison to parents who only maltreat their child. One hundred and sixty-two parents who had allegations of child maltreatment made against them were considered. The sample consisted of 43 fathers (Paternal Family—PF) and 23 mothers (Maternal Family—MF) who perpetrated both partner and child maltreatment, together with 23 fathers (Paternal Child—PC) and 26 mothers (Maternal Child—MC) who perpetrated child maltreatment only. In addition, 2 fathers (Paternal Victim—PV) and 23 mothers (Maternal Victim—MV) were victims of intimate partner maltreatment and perpetrators of child maltreatment and 7 fathers (Paternal Non-abusive Carer—PNC) and 15 mothers (Maternal Non-abusive Carer—MNC) did not maltreat the child but lived with an individual who did. Within their family unit, 40.7% of parents perpetrated both intimate partner and child maltreatment. However, fathers were significantly more likely to maltreat both their partner and child than mothers and mothers were significantly more likely to be victims of intimate partner violence than fathers. PF fathers conducted the highest amount of physical and/or sexual child maltreatment while MC and MV mothers perpetrated the highest amount of child neglect. Few significant differences between mothers were found. PF fathers had significantly more factors associated with development of a criminogenic lifestyle than PC fathers. Marked sex differences were demonstrated with PF fathers demonstrating significantly more antisocial characteristics, less mental health problems and fewer feelings of isolation than MF mothers. MC mothers had significantly more childhood abuse, mental health problems, parenting risk factors and were significantly more likely to be biologically related to the child than PC fathers. This study suggests that violent families should be assessed and treated in a holistic manner, considering the effects of partner violence upon all family members, rather than exclusively intervening with the violent man

The properties of the gamma-ray blazars in the CJ-F VLBI sample

We present first results from the analysis of multi-epoch VLBI observations of the EGRET detected sources [9] in the CJ-F sample (Caltech Jodrell-Flat-spectrum, [10]). These objects form a subsample of 14 sources within the 293 AGN of the full CJ-F sample. 5 GHz VLBI snapshot observations of the CJ-F sources are continuously being performed in order to create a valid database for thorough statistical tests of pc-scale jet motion in AGN. All gamma-bright CJ-F AGN have been observed at least twice with the VLBA, which enables us to investigate jet component motions and paths. In particular, we concentrate on the analysis of those properties supposed to be essential for gamma-ray production, i.e., superluminal motion and bending. A paper discussing the possible relation between morphological changes and gamma-ray flaring/production is in preparation

Renormalization group aspects of the local composite operator method

We review the current status of the application of the local composite operator technique to the condensation of dimension two operators in quantum chromodynamics (QCD). We pay particular attention to the renormalization group aspects of the formalism and the renormalization of QCD in various gauges.Comment: 13 latex pages, talk presented at RG0

A Determination of H_0 with the CLASS Gravitational Lens B1608+656: I. Time Delay Measurements with the VLA

We present the results of a program to monitor the four-image gravitational lens B1608+656 with the VLA. The system was observed over a seven month period from 1996 October to 1997 May. The 64 epochs of observation have an average spacing of 3.6~d. The light curves of the four images of the background source show that the flux density of the background source has varied at the ~5% level. We measure time delays in the system based on common features that are seen in all four light curves. The three independent time delays in the system are found to be Delta t_{BA} = 31 +/- 7~d, Delta t_{BC} = 36 +/- 7~d, and Delta t_{BD} = 76^{+9}_{-10}~d at 95% confidence. This is the first gravitational lens system for which three independent time delays have been measured. A companion paper presents a mass model for the lensing galaxy which correctly reproduces the observed image positions, flux density ratios, and time delay ratios. The last condition is crucial for determining H_0 with a four-image lens. We combine the time delays with the model to obtain a value for the Hubble constant of H_0 = 59^{+8}_{-7} km/s/Mpc at 95% confidence (statistical) for (Omega_M, Omega_{Lambda}) = (1,0). In addition, there is an estimated systematic uncertainty of +/- 15 km/s/Mpc from uncertainties in modeling the radial mass profiles of the lensing galaxies. The value of H_0 presented in this paper is comparable to recent measurements of H_0 from the gravitational lenses 0957+561, PG1115+080, B0218+357, and PKS1830-211.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 20 pages, 13 figure