Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.

Trade costs, 1870–2000

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half? Was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade? To address this question, we derive a micro-founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods. Thus, we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs, transportation costs, and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede international trade but that are inherently difficult to observe. We use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913, its retreat from 1921 to 1939, and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000. We find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre–World War I trade boom and 33 percent of the post–World War II trade boom, while a precipitous rise in trade costs explains the entire interwar trade bust

Trade booms, trade busts and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs

Trade costs in the first wave of Globalization

What drives globalization today and in the past? We employ a new micro-founded measure of bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods to address this question. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade. They comprise tariffs, transportation costs and all other factors that impede international trade but which are inherently difficult to observe. Trade costs fell on average by ten to Þfteen percent between 1870 and 1913. We also use this measure to decompose the growth of global trade over that period and Þnd that roughly 44 percent of the global trade boom can be explained by reductions in trade costs; the remaining 56 percent is attributable to economic expansion

Recurrence of status epilepticus: Prognostic role and outcome predictors.

OBJECTIVE: Predictors of morbidity and mortality after status epilepticus (SE) have been studied extensively in hospital- and population-based cohorts. However, little attention has been directed toward SE recurrence after an incident episode. We investigated clinical and demographic characteristics of patients presenting SE recurrence and its specific prognostic role. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened our prospective registry of consecutive adults with SE between April 2006 and February 2014. Demographic and clinical data were compared between incident and recurrent SE episodes; risk of SE recurrence was assessed through survival analysis, and the prognostic role of SE recurrence with multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the incident cohort (509 patients), 68 (13%) experienced recurrent SE. The cumulative recurrence rate over 4 years was 32%. Recurrence risk was significantly reduced after an acute SE etiology (hazard ratio [HR] 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82; p = 0.005), and was borderline increased in women (HR 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.65; p = 0.06). Although recurrent SE episodes showed lower morbidity and mortality, prognosis was independently related to Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and potentially fatal etiology, but not to SE recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides class III evidence that SE recurrence involves a significant proportion of patients, and that recurrence risk is independently associated with chronic etiology and to a lesser extent with female gender. However, contrary to underlying cause and SE severity, SE recurrence per se does not independently correlate with outcome. Early identification of patients at higher risk of SE recurrence may influence their management during follow-up

HUBUNGAN DUKUNGAN KELUARGA TERHADAP KECEMASAN PASIEN PRE OPERASI ELEKTIF DI RUANG BEDAH RSUD PEMANGKAT TAHUN 2019

This study gives serious attention to the support of families with patient anxiety of elective pre-operation, according to WHO, the number of surgical patients is increasing every year. Where the number of operations in 2018 in hospitals Pemangkat is 1,280 people and in 2019 from January to October amounted to 993 people undergoing surgery. The purpose of this research is to determine the relationship between family support to the anxiety of elective pre-operation patients in Surgical Ward Pemangkat Hospital. The method used is quantitative method with cross sectional study design. The sampling technique in this study uses Non Probability Sampling, namely Consecutive Sampling. The number of samples in this study were 43 respondents from patients will undergoing elective operation. The Result of data were analyzed using Chi-Square, patients produce ρ-value of 0.000 with a significance of 0.05. So the ρ-value < 0.05 (Ha acceptable). The conclusion of this research namely there is a relation between family support to the anxiety of elective pre operation patients in Surgical Ward Pemangkat Hospital. Keywords:Anxiety,Elective Pre Operation Patients, Family Suppor

Trade blocs and trade wars during the interwar period

What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long-run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs (in particular, the British Commonwealth) and short-run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s (in particular, large and widespread declines in bilateral trade, the narrowing of trade imbalances, and sharp drops in average traded distances). We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre-existing efforts towards the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China- and US-centric trade blocs

Good Extractive Governance Sebuah Gagasan Untuk Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Wilayah Pertambangan Di Indonesia

Persoalan pertambangan selama ini menjadi ironi tersendiri bagi masyarakat, alih-alih memperoleh kesejahteraan dari dampak ekonomi yang ditimbulkan dari USAha pertambangan tersebut, justru melahirkan berbagai persoalan baru hingga konflik di tengah masyarakat. Tujuan utama kajian ini untuk mengembangkan gagasan good extractive governance untuk peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat di wilayah pertambangan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode penelitian deskriptif yang menggunakan teknik pengumpulan data berupa wawancara mendalam dan observasi di lapangan. Adapun hasil temuan dari tulisan ini antara lain, keberadaan sumber daya alam berupa migas selama ini lebih banyak memunculkan musibah seperti konflik, bencana lingkungan hingga kesenjangan ekonomi di masyarakat. Untuk memaksimalkan potensi sumber daya yang ada, perlu adanya komitmen yang kuat dari berbagai pihak untuk membentuk sebuah tata kelola pemerintahan yang baik di wilayah industri ekstraktif (Good Extractive Governance). Hal ini bisa dimulai dengan komitmen pemerintah dalam hal kedaulatan migas dan industri ekstraktif yang lain

FPGA based data acquisition system for COMPASS experiment

This paper discusses the present data acquisition system (DAQ) of the COMPASS experiment at CERN and presents development of a new DAQ. The new DAQ must preserve present data format and be able to communicate with FPGA cards. Parts of the new DAQ are based on state machines and they are implemented in C++ with usage of the QT framework, the DIM library, and the IPBus technology. Prototype of the system is prepared and communication through DIM between parts was tested. An implementation of the IPBus technology was prepared and tested. The new DAQ proved to be able to fulfill requirements.Comment: 8 pages, CHEP 201

Analisa Prestasi Kerja Turbin Uap pada Beban yang Bervariasi

. Kebutuhan konsumen akan daya listrik bervariasi dari waktu ke waktu yang menyebabkan beban mekanis yang dipikul oleh poros Turbin turut bervariasi pula. Perubahan pada beban mekanis ini menyebabkan Perubahan langsung pada kerja yang dilakukan oleh poros Turbin.Pengurangan atau penambahan beban dari beban rancangan akan menurunkan unjuk kerja suatu Turbin yang dalam hal ini dilihat dari nilai konsumsi kalor per daya yang dihasilkan terminal generatornya atau Heat Rate Turbin pada variasi titik pembebanan tertentu.Dengan mengetahui prestasi kerja Turbin pada beban yang bervariasi maka kita dapat mengetahui batas-batas (range) beban yang masih dapat dipikul oleh suatu Turbin uap dengan Heat Rate Turbin yang cukup rendah.Pada kondisi normal Turbin unit 1 - 4 UBP Suralaya memiliki unjuk kerja yang baik pada beban operasi puncak 400 MW atau lebih, dimana pada beban tersebut konsumsi kalor turbin atau Heat Rate Turbin cukup rendah berkisar antara 1833,278 – 1871,901 Kcal/kWh. Heat Rate tertinggi terjadi bila turbin dioperasikan pada beban rendah 260 MW dengan nilai Heat Rate mencapai 1958,554 Kcal/kWh