Modeling the Completion Time of Public School Building Projects Using Neural Networks

The Ministry of Education in Iraq is confronting a colossal deficiency in school buildings while stakeholders of government funded school buildings projects are experiencing the ill effects of extreme delays caused by many reasons. Those stakeholders are particularly worried to know ahead of time (at contract assignment) the expected completion time of any new school building project. As indicated by a previous research conducted by the authors, taking into account the opinions of Iraqi experts involved with government funded school building projects, nine major causes of delay in school building projects were affirmed through a questionnaire survey specifically are; the contractor's financial status, delay in interim payments, change orders, the contractor rank, work stoppages, the contract value, experience of the supervising engineers, the contract duration and delay penalty. In this research, two prediction models (A and B) were produced to help the concerned decision makers to foresee the expected completion time of typically designed school building projects having (12) and (18) classes separately. The ANN multi-layer feed forward with back-propagation algorithm was utilized to build up the mathematical equations. The created prediction equations demonstrated a high degree of average accuracy of (96.43%) and (96.79%) for schools having (12) and (18) classes, with (R2) for both ANN models of (79.60%) and (85.30%) respectively. It was found that the most influential parameters of both models were the ratio of the sum of work stoppages to the contract duration, the ratio of contractor's financial status to the contract value, the ratio of delay penalty to the total value of contract and the ratio of mean interim payments duration to the contract duration

Investigation of Cost Control Measures for Main Contractors in Construction Projects

استنادًا إلى بحث سابق للمؤلفين، تم تحديد (59) عاملاً من العوامل المؤثرة في كلف مشاريع التشييد، تتضمن (13) عاملا هي أكثر العوامل تأثيرًا منها (10) عوامل من المرجح أن يسيطر عليها المقاولون الرئيسيون. تم في هذا البحث تحري تدابير السيطرة التي يرجح أن تكون في أيدي المقاولين الرئيسيين وفقا لآراء (30) من المهندسين العراقيين من ذوي الخبرة العالية. تم اجراء مسح استباني يتضمن (55) اجراءً للسيطرة على العوامل الأكثر تأثيراً على الكلفة. وتم ترتيب هذه الاجراءات باستخدام مؤشر الأهمية النسبية. فتبين لأجل السيطرة على الكلفة بشكل أفضل، أن على المقاولين ضمان: استخدام تقنيات ووسائل حديثة لرفع إنتاجية العمال، ووضع قواعد ملزمة للأداء الحسن للمقاولين الثانويين، والالتزام بالصيانة الدورية لتحسين أداء المعدات، وإدامة التخطيط السليم للموقع باستخدام تقنيات دراسة العمل، واختيار مدراء مشاريع مؤهلين، واستخدام تقنيات تخطيط وجدولة حديثة، وتأمين مواقع مناسبة للخزين الاحتياطي للمواد خارج موقع العمل، والتخطيط المسبق لمواصفات المعدات ومهارات العمال، واختيار موردين موثوقينBased on previous research by the authors, (59) cost control factors in construction projects were identified in which (13) were considered as the most influential factors. In this research, control measures that are potentially within the hands of main contractors were investigated according to the opinions of some Iraqi professional engineers of high experience. A questionnaire survey consisting of (55) control measures for the (13) most influential factors were suggested. When ranking those measures, based on the highest (RII), it was found that contractors should focus on; using modern techniques and tools to improve labor productivity, using modern design programs to give clear visualization to the owner so changes is reduced, setting solid rules to attain good performance for contractors, ‎S/C and ‎suppliers, paying liabilities on time to avoid shortage of funding, insure periodical maintenance to enhance equipment performance and lower downtime, integrity and anti-corruption, using work study techniques to insure proper site planning,  proper selection of project managers, using modern planning and scheduling techniques, prepare suitable safe off-site locations for backup material storage, insure previous planning for equipment specification and labor skills, insure selecting reliable suppliers

Modeling Contractor’s Cash-in-Flow in Public School Building Projects in Karbala

Public school building projects in Karbala Province experiences payment problems due to improper cash-flow planning by both parties; contractors and clients. These payment problems lead to work stoppages and conflicts. This research aims at developing a suitable model to forecast the expected contractors’ cash-in-flow in public school building projects in Karbala based on historical data. Complete sets of interim payments of (33) out of (38) school building projects finished in the years (2007-2012) in Karbala were interpolated using seven different regression methods namely;  Polynomial, Gompertz, Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Logistic, Exponential, Gaussian and Linear in order to identify the best-suited model. It is found that the third degree polynomial model is more suitable for cash-in-flow forecasting of the case under study with coefficient of correlation of (97.89%) and standard error of (0.0441). Data of the remaining (5) projects were used to test the validity of the best-fitted model using Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Root Mean Square Error and Average Accuracy Percentage. The model is expected to be of high advantage in predicting contractors’ cash-in-flow in public school building projects in Karbala, and consequently clients’ cash-out-flow as well.

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Response of Different Machine Foundation Shapes Resting on Dry Sand to Dynamic Loading

In this paper, the effect of footing shape resting on dry sand when subjected to machine dynamic loading is experimentally investigated. A laboratory set-up was prepared to simulate the case at different operating frequencies. Nine models were tested to examine the effects of the combinations of two parameters, including different frequencies of (0.5, 1, and 2 Hz) and different footing shapes (circular, square and rectangular). The tests were conducted under a load amplitude of (0.25 ton) using sand with medium and dense relative densities corresponding to (R.D. = 50% and 80%) having unit weights of (17.04 and 17.96 kN/m3) respectively. A shaft encoder and a vibration meter were used to measure the strain and amplitude displacement, while the stress in the soil at different depths was measured using flexible pressure sensors. It was found that the shape of footing has a considerable influence on the bearing capacity of the supporting soil under dynamic loading. For instance, the strain of dry sand under a circular footing was nearly (41%) higher, the amplitude displacement was nearly (17%) higher, and stress was nearly (12%) higher than square and rectangular footings, under the same conditions

Delayed colorectal cancer care during covid-19 pandemic (decor-19). Global perspective from an international survey

Background The widespread nature of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been unprecedented. We sought to analyze its global impact with a survey on colorectal cancer (CRC) care during the pandemic. Methods The impact of COVID-19 on preoperative assessment, elective surgery, and postoperative management of CRC patients was explored by a 35-item survey, which was distributed worldwide to members of surgical societies with an interest in CRC care. Respondents were divided into two comparator groups: 1) ‘delay’ group: CRC care affected by the pandemic; 2) ‘no delay’ group: unaltered CRC practice. Results A total of 1,051 respondents from 84 countries completed the survey. No substantial differences in demographics were found between the ‘delay’ (745, 70.9%) and ‘no delay’ (306, 29.1%) groups. Suspension of multidisciplinary team meetings, staff members quarantined or relocated to COVID-19 units, units fully dedicated to COVID-19 care, personal protective equipment not readily available were factors significantly associated to delays in endoscopy, radiology, surgery, histopathology and prolonged chemoradiation therapy-to-surgery intervals. In the ‘delay’ group, 48.9% of respondents reported a change in the initial surgical plan and 26.3% reported a shift from elective to urgent operations. Recovery of CRC care was associated with the status of the outbreak. Practicing in COVID-free units, no change in operative slots and staff members not relocated to COVID-19 units were statistically associated with unaltered CRC care in the ‘no delay’ group, while the geographical distribution was not. Conclusions Global changes in diagnostic and therapeutic CRC practices were evident. Changes were associated with differences in health-care delivery systems, hospital’s preparedness, resources availability, and local COVID-19 prevalence rather than geographical factors. Strategic planning is required to optimize CRC care