Using Taint Analysis and Reinforcement Learning (TARL) to Repair Autonomous Robot Software

It is important to be able to establish formal performance bounds for autonomous systems. However, formal verification techniques require a model of the environment in which the system operates; a challenge for autonomous systems, especially those expected to operate over longer timescales. This paper describes work in progress to automate the monitor and repair of ROS-based autonomous robot software written for an a-priori partially known and possibly incorrect environment model. A taint analysis method is used to automatically extract the data-flow sequence from input topic to publish topic, and instrument that code. A unique reinforcement learning approximation of MDP utility is calculated, an empirical and non-invasive characterization of the inherent objectives of the software designers. By comparing off-line (a-priori) utility with on-line (deployed system) utility, we show, using a small but real ROS example, that it's possible to monitor a performance criterion and relate violations of the criterion to parts of the software. The software is then patched using automated software repair techniques and evaluated against the original off-line utility.Comment: IEEE Workshop on Assured IEEE Workshop on Assured Autonomous Systems, May, 202

ERTS-1 Views the Great Lakes Area

ERTS-1 study of mesoscale atmospheric phenomena associated with Great Lake

Aspects of bovine caesarean section associated with calf mortality, dam survival and subsequent fertility.

Bovine caesarean section is a common surgery performed by cattle practitioners yet evidence for justifying many aspects of the surgical procedure is lacking. Between 2001 and 2007, questionnaires were used to gather information on 103 cases of caesarean section performed in one, predominantly dairy, veterinary practice. The results showed that the 14-day cow survival rate was 80.6%, and of those surviving beyond this period, 55.4% carried another calf to term, 27.7% were culled due to infertility and 16.9% were culled due to other reasons. Variables associated with reduced 14-day dam mortality included exteriorising the uterus during surgery (odds ratio [OR] 0.018, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.0019-0.17, P<0.001), dystocia where fetomaternal disproportion was present (OR 0.090, 95% CI 0.097-0.83, P=0.033), a female calf (OR 0.036, 95% CI 0.0019-0.69, P=0.027), no retained fetal membranes at the first post-operative revisit (OR 0.095, 95% CI 0.013-0.69, P=0.020) and removing abdominal blood clots during surgery (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.011-0.93, P=0.043). Using a Utrecht suture pattern on the uterus was associated with reduced culling due to infertility (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.020-0.67, P=0.016). Incision infection was noted in 25.9% of cases where incision status was recorded but this was not associated with the type of local anaesthesia used. Overall calf survival up to the first post-operative visit (24-48 h) was 59.4%, and was associated with shorter duration of surgery, and dystocia due to fetomaternal disproportion. These results offer some evidence-based guidelines to optimise outcomes for this common surgery performed under field conditions

ERTS-1 views the Great Lakes

The meteorological content of ERTS images, particularly mesoscale effects of the Great Lakes and air pollution dispersion is summarized. Summertime lake breeze frontal clouds and various winter lake-effect convection patterns and snow squalls are revealed in great detail. A clear-cut spiral vortex over southern Lake Michigan is related to a record early snow storm in the Chicago area. Marked cloud changes induced by orographic and frictional effects on Lake Michigan's lee shore snow squalls are seen. The most important finding, however, is a clear-cut example of alterations in cumulus convection by anthropogenic condensation and/or ice nuclei from northern Indiana steel mills during a snow squall situation. Jet aircraft condensation trails are also found with surprising frequency

Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data

Objectives: To test the contraceptive confidence hypothesis in a modern context. The hypothesis is that women using effective or modern contraceptive methods have increased contraceptive confidence and hence a shorter interval between marriage and first birth than users of ineffective or traditional methods. We extend the hypothesis to incorporate the role of abortion, arguing that it acts as a substitute for contraception in the study context.Setting: Moldova, a country in South-East Europe. Moldova exhibits high use of traditional contraceptive methods and abortion compared with other European countries.Participants: Data are from a secondary analysis of the 2005 Moldovan Demographic and Health Survey, a nationally representative sample survey. 5377 unmarried women were selected.Primary and secondary outcome measures: The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth. This was modelled using a piecewise-constant hazard regression, with abortion and contraceptive method types as primary variables along with relevant sociodemographic controls.Results: Women with high contraceptive confidence (modern method users) have a higher cumulative hazard of first birth 36?months following marriage (0.88 (0.87 to 0.89)) compared with women with low contraceptive confidence (traditional method users, cumulative hazard: 0.85 (0.84 to 0.85)). This is consistent with the contraceptive confidence hypothesis. There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24?months after marriage.Conclusions: Effective contraceptive use tends to increase contraceptive confidence and is associated with a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear—women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth

The mid-domain effect: It’s not just about space

Ecologists and biogeographers have long sought to understand how and why diversity varies across space. Up until the late 20th century, the dominant role of environmental gradients and historical processes in driving geographical species richness patterns went largely undisputed. However, almost 20 years ago, Colwell & Hurtt (1994) proposed a radical reappraisal of ecological gradient theory that called into question decades of empirical and theoretical research. That controversial idea was later termed the ‘the mid-domain effect’: the simple proposition that in the absence of environmental gradients, the random placement of species ranges within a bounded domain will give rise to greatest range overlap, and thus richness, at the center of the domain (Colwell & Lees, 2000) (Fig. 1a). The implication of this line of reasoning is that the conventional null model of equal species richness regardless of latitude, elevation or depth should be replaced by one where richness peaks at some midpoint in geographical space. Our intention here is to draw attention to a neglected, yet important manifestation of the mid-domain effect, namely the application of mid-domain models (also referred to as geometric constraint models) to non-spatial domains. If individual species have ranges that exist not just in geographical space but also in environmental factors, such as temperature, rainfall, pH, productivity or disturbance, shouldn’t we also expect mid-domain richness peaks along non-spatial gradients? A mid-domain model applied to non-spatial gradients predicts the maximum potential richness for every value of an environmental factor. As with spatial mid-domain models, realized richness would probably be less, but the limits to richness are still predicted to be hump-shaped. Indeed, hump-shaped relationships emerge with remarkably high frequency across various non-spatial gradients. For instance, two of ecology’s most fundamental, albeit controversial theories – the productivity–diversity relationship and the intermediate disturbance hypothesis – predict mid-domain peaks in species richness. However, the potential of non-spatial mid-domain models has gone largely ignored

Fatal injuries to car occupants: analysis of health and population data

Although this report was commissioned by the Department for Transport (DfT), the findings and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the DfT. While the DfT has made every effort to ensure the information in this document is accurate, DfT does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of that information; and it cannot accept liability for any loss or damages of any kind resulting from reliance on the information or guidance this document contains

European social workers in England: exploring international labour mobility

Social work is generally regarded as an essentially ‘local activity’ but it is increasingly acknowledged that European and international trends have a bearing on development of national services and practices. This extends to the mobility of social workers themselves and England has experienced a steady growth in the recruitment of ‘international social workers’ who were born and qualified elsewhere. This is a generally under-researched area but the authors have drawn on literature in the wider field of labour migration and also secondary data and anecdotal evidence to present some facts and ideas about recruitment as it applies to social workers from European Union (EU) member states in particular. International social workers come to England from a large number and wide range of countries. However, the balance has been shifting between recruitment predominantly from the US and Commonwealth countries to a greater number from EU states. The current characteristics of international (particularly EU) social work recruitment are outlined in this paper and reasons related to both (national) demand and (international) supply are suggested. It is proposed that reasons are related to changes and conditions in the EU; to the national Government’s efforts to curb immigration; and to the particular characteristics of social work employment in England, particularly in child protection work. Some of the implications for European social workers of working in England are explored and it is concluded that there is a need for comparative and transnational research in this field

The Distributional Effects of Value Added Tax in Ireland

In this paper we examine the distributional effects of Value Added Tax (VAT) in Ireland. Using the 2004/2005 Household Budget Survey, we assess the amount of VAT that households pay as a proportion of weekly disposable income. We measure VAT payments by equivalised income decile, households of different composition and different household sizes. The current system is highly regressive. With the use of a micro-simulation model we also estimate the impact of changing the VAT rate on certain groups of items and the associated change in revenue. We also consider how the imposition of a flat rate across all goods and services would affect households in different categories. The Irish Government has recently announced that it proposes to increase the standard rate of VAT to 22 per cent in 2013 and to 23 per cent in 2014. We examine the distributional implications of such increases. The general pattern of results shows that those hardest hit are households in the first income decile, households in rural areas, 6 person households and households containing a single adult with children.

Are classroom internet use and academic performance higher after government broadband subsidies to primary schools?

This paper combines data from a government programme providing broadband access to primary schools in Ireland with survey microdata on schools’, teachers’ and pupils use of the internet to examine the links between public subsidies, classroom use of the internet and educational performance. Provision of broadband service under a government scheme was associated with more than a doubling of teachers’ use of the internet in class after about a two year lag. Better computing facilities in schools were also associated with higher internet use, but advertised download speed was not statistically significant. A second set of models show that use of the internet in class was associated with significantly higher average mathematics scores on standardised tests. There was also a less robust positive association with reading scores. A set of confounding factors is included, with results broadly in line with previous literature