Second-Generation Objects in the Universe: Radiative Cooling and Collapse of Halos with Virial Temperatures Above 10^4 Kelvin

The first generation of protogalaxies likely formed out of primordial gas via H2-cooling in cosmological minihalos with virial temperatures of a few 1000K. However, their abundance is likely to have been severely limited by feedback processes which suppressed H2 formation. The formation of the protogalaxies responsible for reionization and metal-enrichment of the intergalactic medium, then had to await the collapse of larger halos. Here we investigate the radiative cooling and collapse of gas in halos with virial temperatures Tvir > 10^4K. In these halos, efficient atomic line radiation allows rapid cooling of the gas to 8000 K; subsequently the gas can contract nearly isothermally at this temperature. Without an additional coolant, the gas would likely settle into a locally gravitationally stable disk; only disks with unusually low spin would be unstable. However, we find that the initial atomic line cooling leaves a large, out-of-equilibrium residual free electron fraction. This allows the molecular fraction to build up to a universal value of about x(H2) = 10^-3, almost independently of initial density and temperature. We show that this is a non--equilibrium freezeout value that can be understood in terms of timescale arguments. Furthermore, unlike in less massive halos, H2 formation is largely impervious to feedback from external UV fields, due to the high initial densities achieved by atomic cooling. The H2 molecules cool the gas further to about 100K, and allow the gas to fragment on scales of a few 100 Msun. We investigate the importance of various feedback effects such as H2-photodissociation from internal UV fields and radiation pressure due to Ly-alpha photon trapping, which are likely to regulate the efficiency of star formation.Comment: Revised version accepted by ApJ; some reorganization for clarit

An Optical/Near-Infrared Study of Radio-Loud Quasar Environments II. Imaging Results

We use optical and near-IR imaging to examine the properties of the significant excess population of K>=19 galaxies found in the fields of 31 z=1-2 radio-loud quasars by Hall, Green & Cohen (1998). The excess occurs on two spatial scales: a component at <40'' from the quasars significant compared to the galaxy surface density at >40'' in the same fields, and a component roughly uniform to ~100'' significant compared to the galaxy surface density seen in random-field surveys in the literature. The r-K color distributions of the excess galaxy populations are indistinguishable and are significantly redder than the color distribution of the field population. The excess galaxies are consistent with being predominantly early-type galaxies at the quasar redshifts, and there is no evidence that they are associated with intervening MgII absorption systems. The average excess within 0.5 Mpc (~65'') of the quasars corresponds to Abell richness class ~0 compared to the galaxy surface density at >0.5 Mpc from the quasars, and to Abell richness class ~1.5 compared to that from the literature. We discuss the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies in fields with data in several passbands. Most candidate quasar-associated galaxies are consistent with being 2-3 Gyr old early-types at the quasar redshifts of z~1.5. However, some objects have SEDs consistent with being 4-5 Gyr old at z~1.5, and a number of others are consistent with ~2 Gyr old but dust-reddened galaxies at the quasar redshifts. These potentially different galaxy types suggest there may be considerable dispersion in the properties of early-type cluster galaxies at z~1.5. There is also a population of galaxies whose SEDs are best modelled by background galaxies at z>2.5.Comment: Accepted to ApJ; 54 pages including 30 figures; 2 color GIF files available separately; also available from http://www.astro.utoronto.ca/~hall/thesis.htm

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Incidence of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear sites in France, 1990–1998

Overall, 670 cases (O) of childhood leukaemia were diagnosed within 20 km of the 29 French nuclear installations between 1990 and 1998 compared to an expected number (E) of 729.09 cases (O/E=0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=[0.85-0.99]). Each of the four areas defined around the sites showed non significant deficits of cases (0-5 km: O=65, O/E=0.87, CI=[0.67-1.10]; 5-10 km: O=165, O/E=0.95, CI=[0.81-1.10]; 10-15 km: O=220, O/E=0.88, CI=[0.77-1.00]; 15-20 km: O=220, O/E=0.96, CI=[0.84-1.10]). There was no evidence of a trend in standardised incidence ratio with distance from the sites for all children or for any of the three age groups studied. Similar results were obtained when the start-up year of the electricity-generating nuclear sites and their electric nuclear power were taken into account. No evidence was found of a generally increased risk of childhood leukaemia around the 29 French nuclear sites under study during 1990-1998

Spatial analysis of lung, colorectal, and breast cancer on Cape Cod: An application of generalized additive models to case-control data

BACKGROUND: The availability of geographic information from cancer and birth defect registries has increased public demands for investigation of perceived disease clusters. Many neighborhood-level cluster investigations are methodologically problematic, while maps made from registry data often ignore latency and many known risk factors. Population-based case-control and cohort studies provide a stronger foundation for spatial epidemiology because potential confounders and disease latency can be addressed. METHODS: We investigated the association between residence and colorectal, lung, and breast cancer on upper Cape Cod, Massachusetts (USA) using extensive data on covariates and residential history from two case-control studies for 1983–1993. We generated maps using generalized additive models, smoothing on longitude and latitude while adjusting for covariates. The resulting continuous surface estimates disease rates relative to the whole study area. We used permutation tests to examine the overall importance of location in the model and identify areas of increased and decreased risk. RESULTS: Maps of colorectal cancer were relatively flat. Assuming 15 years of latency, lung cancer was significantly elevated just northeast of the Massachusetts Military Reservation, although the result did not hold when we restricted to residences of longest duration. Earlier non-spatial epidemiology had found a weak association between lung cancer and proximity to gun and mortar positions on the reservation. Breast cancer hot spots tended to increase in magnitude as we increased latency and adjusted for covariates, indicating that confounders were partly hiding these areas. Significant breast cancer hot spots were located near known groundwater plumes and the Massachusetts Military Reservation. DISCUSSION: Spatial epidemiology of population-based case-control studies addresses many methodological criticisms of cluster studies and generates new exposure hypotheses. Our results provide evidence for spatial clustering of breast cancer on upper Cape Cod. The analysis suggests further investigation of the potential association between breast cancer and pollution plumes based on detailed exposure modeling

Childhood exposure to external ionising radiation and solid cancer risk

The increasing use of ionising radiation for diagnostic purposes has raised concern about potential iatrogenic damage, especially in children. In this review, we discuss some aspects of radiation-induced cancer in relation to age at exposure and measures that should be taken for limiting exposure in this sensitive population

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.Ye

Spatial-temporal analysis of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the NCI-SEER NHL case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exploring spatial-temporal patterns of disease incidence through cluster analysis identifies areas of significantly elevated or decreased risk, providing potential clues about disease risk factors. Little is known about the etiology of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), or the latency period that might be relevant for environmental exposures, and there are no published spatial-temporal cluster studies of NHL.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a population-based case-control study of NHL in four National Cancer Institute (NCI)-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) centers: Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, and Seattle during 1998-2000. Using 20-year residential histories, we used generalized additive models adjusted for known risk factors to model spatially the probability that an individual had NHL and to identify clusters of elevated or decreased NHL risk. We evaluated models at five different time periods to explore the presence of clusters in a time frame of etiologic relevance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The best model fit was for residential locations 20 years prior to diagnosis in Detroit, Iowa, and Los Angeles. We found statistically significant areas of elevated risk of NHL in three of the four study areas (Detroit, Iowa, and Los Angeles) at a lag time of 20 years. The two areas of significantly elevated risk in the Los Angeles study area were detected only at a time lag of 20 years. Clusters in Detroit and Iowa were detected at several time points.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found significant spatial clusters of NHL after allowing for disease latency and residential mobility. Our results show the importance of evaluating residential histories when studying spatial patterns of cancer.</p

Quantifying the effect of population mixing on childhood leukaemia risk: the Seascale cluster

A statistical model was developed based on Poisson regression of incidence of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) in relation to population mixing among all 119 539 children born 1969–1989 to mothers living in Cumbria, north-west England, (excluding Seascale). This model was used to predict the number of cases in Seascale (the village adjacent to the Sellafield nuclear installation) children, born 1950–1989 and diagnosed before 1993. After allowing for age, the incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and NHL was significantly higher among children born in areas with the highest levels of population mixing, relative risk (RR) = 11.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2–43) and was highest among children of incomers. The model predicted up to 3.0 (95% CI 1.3–6.0) cases of ALL/NHL in children born in Seascale compared to six observed and 2.0 (95% CI 1.0–3.4) cases in children resident, but not born, in Seascale compared to two observed. Population mixing is a significant risk factor for ALL/NHL, especially in young children, accounting for over 50% of cases in Cumbria and most cases in Seascale. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig