Economy and Environment Interaction // Moscow: Dorodnicyn Computing Centre Russian Ac. Sc., 2003. 40p. (In Russian)

This paper presents new results of mathematical modeling of economy and environment interaction . A model of mutual interaction of livestock farming - one in a two main agricultural branches - and natural pastures that are the essential part of livestock farming forage reserve is proposed. Results of numerical experiments and analysis of various scripts of livestock farming is described. The work is in part supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (Grant 01-01-00114) and the Program of State Support of Leading Scientific Schools (Grant 00-15-96118).livestock farming, vintage livestock, age cohorts, credits, farm, equilibrium price, steppe ecosystem model, carbon cycle, ecological economic model

An interaction model for livestock farming and steppe ecosystem

This work builds a macro model for livestock farming based on aggregation of initial micro description for rational control of total number of vintage livestock (age cohorts). Solution of an optimal problem on cohort total number of livestock gives the age limit for the operation of animals, the volume of the credits for the farm, the speed of slaughter, and the conditions of the farm purchase of young animals. The integral equation for the equilibrium price of young animals is obtained. A steppe ecosystem model based on a carbon cycle is constructed. The model takes into account some external influences. It is taken into account that the maintenance of animals damages the nature. Numerical experiments on the obtained ecological- economic model with the rational expectations is solved with the help of the highly productive calculations on the supercomputer MVS 1000M. On the basis of base scenario the developments of processes in several alternatives are built and calculated. One of scenarios demonstrates a regime in which the area of natural pastures is reduced by the virtue of external human activity. }livestock farming, vintage livestock, age cohorts, credits, farm, equilibrium price, steppe ecosystem model, carbon cycle, ecological economic model

An interaction model for livestock farming and steppe ecosystem // “Mathematical Modeling of Ecological Systems” Almaty: Daik-Press, 2003. – 160 p. Abstracts. P.26.

This work builds a macro model for livestock farming based on aggregation of initial micro description for rational control of total number of vintage livestock (age cohorts). All variety of animal kinds is reduced to one by given recount coefficients. An optimal problem on co-hort total number of livestock (planning problem for life cycle of animals) is resolved. As a result the optimum age limit for the operation of animals, the optimum volume of the credits for the farm, the optimum speed of slaughter, and the optimum conditions of the farm pur-chase of young animals are determined. The integral equation for the equilibrium price of young animals, which contains forward-looking values of variables, is obtained. It means that for constructing of the model it is necessary to know how the farms forecast the prices. The problem is solved by the application of the rational expectations hypothesis: within the model framework all farms have the precise forecast of necessary prices on the planned period (they exploit available information without making systematic mistakes). A steppe ecosystem model based on a carbon cycle with grazed animals as part of the ecosystem is constructed. The model takes into account some external influences. The pa-rameters of this model are identified on the basis of data on grassland ecosystems. Besides a model of credit-and-monetary system taking into account the organization of this system according to the Stanley Fischer currency board scheme with fixed exchange rate is constructed. In this case gold currency reserves change by the balance of payments. In the description of full ecological- economic model it is taken into account that the maintenance of animals damages the nature. Balance relationships on the product market and on the labor market are carefully extracted for closing the model. In the description of interac-tion of livestock farming and ecosystem and government regulated mechanisms it is assumed that the tax rate per head of animal grows when the degradation level exceeds a limiting value established by the law, and the raw material price changes proportional to the remainder of its biomass stock. Numerical experiments on the obtained ecological- economic model with the rational expectations are the complex computational problem, which is solved with the help of the highly productive calculations on the supercomputer MVS 1000M. Model is calibrated ac-cording to the Mongolian data. In the base scenario of the model calculations the basic indices of environment decrease down to 10% in one hundred years. Fluctuations of financial pa-rameters with the period in 36 years caused by price rational expectations are found out. On the basis of base scenario the developments of processes in complex system of in-teraction of livestock farming and steppe ecosystem several alternative scenarios are built and calculated. The calculations showed that the specified system maintains also more rigid rela-tion to the level of the environment degradation than in the base scenario. In this case it is possible to improve all macro indexes of the studied system. It is shown also that an increase of efficiency of actions for rational use of available resources improves the steppe ecosystem state, enables to increase the output of final production and the incomes of the population. One of scenarios demonstrates a regime in which the area of natural pastures is reduced by the virtue of external human activity (for example, space activity).livestock farming, vintage livestock, age cohorts, credits, farm, equilibrium price, steppe ecosystem model, carbon cycle, ecological economic model

МЕХАНИЗМЫ ОЧАГОВ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ И ПОЛЕ НАПРЯЖЕНИЙ МОНГОЛИИ И ПРИЛЕГАЮЩИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ

We have compiled and analyzed earthquake focal solutions for the territory of Mongolia and its surroundings in order to reveal a spatial variability of stress orientation and stress regimes of the crust. According to the stress inversion results, the SHmax is turning from W-E in the eastern Mongolia to SW-NE in the Gobi Altay and the central Mongolia, and then to S-N in the western part of the region. Comparison with data derived from GPS measurements shows that directions of the strain axes revealed by the geodetic and seismological observations are generally consistent. A contradiction is found for the Bolnai zone where results of GPS estimation indicate the predominance of extension (in the SE-NW direction), whereas earthquake data for the longer period of seismic observations reveal compression. Compression in this zone is mainly due to the Tsetserleg-Bolnai earthquakes contribution; however, a part of the recent data on focal mechanisms fits an extensional stress field with the NNW orientated extension axis. These data are in accordance with some published works which suggest a transtensive field from some structural geology studies in the eastern part of the Bolnai zone.The paper is supplemented with a list of M≥4.5 earthquake fault plane solutions and unpublished focal mechanisms for some M≤4.5 earthquakes of the northern Mongolia and the southern Baikal region.Введение. Механизмы очагов землетрясений наряду с геодезическими и другими данными служат источником информации о напряженно-деформированном состоянии земной коры. Задачи оценки тектонического режима и скорости деформирования особенно актуальны для внутриплитных областей, характеризующихся высоким уровнем сейсмичности. Одной из таких областей является Монголия, на территории которой известны землетрясения с М=8.0 (рис. 1). В представляемой работе собраны и проанализированы механизмы очагов землетрясений с M≥4.5 с целью проследить пространственную изменчивость поля напряжений земной коры. Данные. Опубликованные данные о фокальных решениях можно разделить на две группы в зависимости от применяемых для их определения методов. К первой группе относятся механизмы, полученные моделированием волновых форм на удаленных и региональных станциях. Вторая группа решений получена при использовании метода полярности первых вступлений волн. Данный метод широко применялся для умеренной силы землетрясений северной части Монголии и Южной Сибири, что обусловлено более плотным покрытием этого региона сейсмостанциями. Используемые для анализа в данной работе решения представлены в таблице (в разделе «Дополнительные материалы») и на карте (рис. 2). Методы. Для инверсии поля напряжений использовались два подхода. Для землетрясений основных сейсмических зон (Болнай, Гобийский Алтай, Могод и т.д.) применялась программа Win-Tensor [Delvaux, Sperner, 2003], в которой реализован метод right dihedra [Angelier, 1984]. Для получения более сглаженной по всей территории картины ориентации осей напряжений использовалась программа SATSI [Hardebeck, Michael, 2006], минимизирующая разницу между соседними «индивидуальными» стресс-тензорами для сейсмоактивных областей. Для более корректного сравнения сейсмологических данных с результатами GPS-измерений и визуализации сейсмотектонических деформаций представлены стереограммы средних фокальных механизмов [Nikitin, Yunga, 1977; Yunga, 1990]. Результаты. Полученные результаты показывают, что фокальные решения землетрясений южной, западной и восточной части Монголии однородны и представлены главным образом сдвиговыми и взбросовыми подвижками в очагах. Большим разнообразием кинематических типов разрывов характеризуется территория к северу от Болнайского разлома. Для непосредственно Болнайской зоны не удалось получить единого стресс-тензора. Выборка разделилась на главные толчки (Болнайское и Цэцэрлэгское землетрясения 1905 г.), состоящие из субисточников, и события, зарегистрированные в период инструментальных наблюдений. Последние показывают наличие в выборке решений, удовлетворяющих режиму растяжения. В целом, наблюдается изменение ориентации оси SHmax от направления Ю-С в западной части Монголии до ЮЗ-СВ в Гобийском Алтае и в центральной части страны и до широтного направления в Восточной Монголии. Обсуждение результатов. Очевидно, что основные характеристики поля напряжений на представленной территории уже выявлены и описаны в предшествующих работах [Zhalkovskii et al., 1995; Petit et al., 1996; Delvaux et al., 1998; Melnikova et al., 2004; Melnikova, Radziminovich, 2005; San’kov et al., 2005; Gol’din, Kuchai, 2007; Radziminovich et al., 2007; Parfeevets, San’kov, 2010; San’kov et al., 2011; Parfeevets, San’kov, 2012; Rebetsky et al., 2013; Tataurova et al., 2014; Kuchai, Kozina, 2015; Karagianni et al., 2015; и др.]. Все увеличивающийся объем новых данных, с одной стороны, подтверждает сделанные ранее выводы, а с другой – позволяет выявить некоторые детали. Результаты, полученные по сейсмологическим данным, согласуются с данными, полученными в ходе геолого-структурных работ [Parfeevets, Sankov, 2012] и GPS-измерений [Calais et al., 2003; Loukhnev et al., 2010]. Выделяется Болнайская зона, которая по геодезическим расчетам характеризуется деформацией удлинения земной коры или растяжением. Выше отмечалось, что часть фокальных механизмов соответствует такому полю напряжений. Более того, замеры трещиноватости также приводят авторов [Parfeevets, Sankov, 2012] к выводу о режиме транстенсии в восточной части Болнайской зоны, связанном, вероятно, с дивергенцией Евразийской и Амурской плит [Petit, Fournier, 2005]. Характер изменений сейсмотектонических деформаций в этом районе позволил авторам работы [Kuchai, Kozina, 2015] выделить, хоть и в широких пределах, границу Амурской плиты. По данным о землетрясениях с M≥7.0 была рассчитана скорость деформации по формуле Кострова (табл. 2). Для временного интервала в 100 лет она составила 1.12×1020 N m yr–1, что является высоким значением для внутриконтинентальных областей по сравнению с модельными значениями [Holt et al., 1995, 2000]. Очевидно, это связано с сильнейшими землетрясениями региона, произошедшими на протяжении небольшого интервала времени. Заключение. Карта фокальных механизмов и результаты инверсии поля тектонических напряжений могут быть полезны при сейсмотектоническом и геодинамическом анализе Центральной Азии. В разделе «Дополнительные материалы» приведена компиляционная таблица механизмов очагов землетрясений с M≥4.5 и ранее неопубликованные механизмы очагов землетрясений Северной Монголии и Южного Прибайкалья с M≤4.5

Strategies for the sustainable redevelopment of residential buildings in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia: A proposal

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Climatogenic cryomorphogenesis in the Southeastern Altai Mountains

An in-depth analysis of temporal changes in hydrothermal regimes of natural seasons has been performed for the period from 1936 to 2016 to identify the reasons behind the activation of cryogenic landslide processes in the Southeastern Altai Mountains. Ultra-high-resolution satellite imagery is used to identify the years of peak landslide activity; the climatic parameters registered in these years are compared with those computed for the period preceding the beginning of steady global climate change (1936-1970). The analysis results indicate a pronounced climate warming and its active impact on high-mountain cryogenic systems. Landslide intensification periods caused by extreme thawing in the active cryolithozone layer in 1998, 2012, and 2016 statistically significantly correlate with anomalous values of parameters characterizing hydrothermal regimes of natural seasons and their structural units

FOCAL MECHANISMS OF EARTHQUAKES AND STRESS FIELD OF THE CRUST IN MONGOLIA AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

We have compiled and analyzed earthquake focal solutions for the territory of Mongolia and its surroundings in order to reveal a spatial variability of stress orientation and stress regimes of the crust. According to the stress inversion results, the SHmax is turning from W-E in the eastern Mongolia to SW-NE in the Gobi Altay and the central Mongolia, and then to S-N in the western part of the region. Comparison with data derived from GPS measurements shows that directions of the strain axes revealed by the geodetic and seismological observations are generally consistent. A contradiction is found for the Bolnai zone where results of GPS estimation indicate the predominance of extension (in the SE-NW direction), whereas earthquake data for the longer period of seismic observations reveal compression. Compression in this zone is mainly due to the Tsetserleg-Bolnai earthquakes contribution; however, a part of the recent data on focal mechanisms fits an extensional stress field with the NNW orientated extension axis. These data are in accordance with some published works which suggest a transtensive field from some structural geology studies in the eastern part of the Bolnai zone.The paper is supplemented with a list of M≥4.5 earthquake fault plane solutions and unpublished focal mechanisms for some M≤4.5 earthquakes of the northern Mongolia and the southern Baikal region

Slip rate and slip magnitudes of past earthquakes along the Bogd left-lateral strike-slip fault (Mongolia)

International audienceWe carried out morphotectonic studies along the left-lateral strike-slip Bogd Fault, the principal structure involved in the Gobi-Altay earthquake of 1957 December 4 (published magnitudes range from 7.8 to 8.3). The Bogd Fault is 260 km long and can be subdivided into five main geometric segments, based on variation in strike direction. West to East these segments are, respectively: the West Ih Bogd (WIB), The North Ih Bogd (NIB), the West Ih Bogd (WIB), the West Baga Bogd (WBB) and the East Baga Bogd (EBB) segments. Morphological analysis of offset streams, ridges and alluvial fans-particularly well preserved in the arid environment of the Gobi region-allows evaluation of late Quaternary slip rates along the different faults segments. In this paper, we measure slip rates over the past 200 ka at four sites distributed across the three western segments of the Bogd Fault. Our results show that the left-lateral slip rate is similar to 1 mm yr(-1) along the WIB and EIB segments and similar to 0.5 mm yr(-1) along the NIB segment. These variations are consistent with the restraining bend geometry of the Bogd Fault.;Our study also provides additional estimates of the horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake along the western part of the Bogd rupture, complementing previously published studies. We show that the mean horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake decreases progressively from 5.2 m in the west to 2.0 m in the east, reflecting the progressive change of kinematic style from pure left-lateral strike-slip faulting to left-lateral-reverse faulting. Along the three western segments, we measure cumulative displacements that are multiples of the 1957 coseismic offset, which may be consistent with a characteristic slip. Moreover, using these data, we re-estimate the moment magnitude of the Gobi-Altay earthquake at M-w 7.78-7.95.;Combining our slip rate estimates and the slip distribution per event we also determined a mean recurrence interval of similar to 2500-5200 yr for past earthquakes along the different segments of the western Bogd Fault. This suggests that the three western segments of the Bogd Fault and the Gurvan Bulag thrust fault (a reverse fault bounding the southern side of the Ih Bogd range that ruptured during the 1957 earthquake) have similar average recurrence times, and therefore may have ruptured together in previous earthquakes as they did in 1957. These results suggest that the western part of the Bogd Fault system, including the Gurvan Bulag thrust fault, usually behaves in a 'characteristic earthquake' mode

Magnetotelluric multiscale 3-D inversion reveals crustal and upper mantle structure beneath the Hangai and Gobi-Altai region in Mongolia

ISSN:0956-540XISSN:1365-246