Rising Navies and New World Order

Long-term economic and military trends indicate that a shift in the current world order is imminent between the United States and China. The United States is accustomed to its current position as the leading naval power but this position is increasingly being threatened by emerging Chinese naval power. Despite their best efforts, the United States has not been able to ease the threat of China’s naval development. The public and many U.S. policymakers identify China as a major threat to U.S. hegemony and fear China’s growing power will ultimately make the United States weaker. In this paper, I propose that China’s naval development does not necessarily indicate a weakness in the United States; but rather it is a result of an inevitable power cycle. Power cycle theory contends that these transitions are inevitable in the international system. In this paper, I examine the history of previous naval rivalries between Britain and the Netherlands, Germany and Britain, and the United States and Japan. After identifying the motives of the actors, the pinnacle of the rivalry and their conclusions, I find several patterns in support of power cycle theory that can be applied to the contemporary situation between China and the United States. I contend that deeper understanding of the historical trends at work will help U.S. political leaders make rational decisions about current and future naval policy

End-of-Discharge and End-of-Life Prediction in Lithium-Ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-Based Aging Models

As batteries become increasingly prevalent in complex systems such as aircraft and electric cars, monitoring and predicting battery state of charge and state of health becomes critical. In order to accurately predict the remaining battery power to support system operations for informed operational decision-making, age-dependent changes in dynamics must be accounted for. Using an electrochemistry-based model, we investigate how key parameters of the battery change as aging occurs, and develop models to describe aging through these key parameters. Using these models, we demonstrate how we can (i) accurately predict end-of-discharge for aged batteries, and (ii) predict the end-of-life of a battery as a function of anticipated usage. The approach is validated through an experimental set of randomized discharge profiles

Application of Model-based Prognostics to a Pneumatic Valves Testbed

Pneumatic-actuated valves play an important role in many applications, including cryogenic propellant loading for space operations. Model-based prognostics emphasizes the importance of a model that describes the nominal and faulty behavior of a system, and how faulty behavior progresses in time, causing the end of useful life of the system. We describe the construction of a testbed consisting of a pneumatic valve that allows the injection of faulty behavior and controllable fault progression. The valve opens discretely, and is controlled through a solenoid valve. Controllable leaks of pneumatic gas in the testbed are introduced through proportional valves, allowing the testing and validation of prognostics algorithms for pneumatic valves. A new valve prognostics approach is developed that estimates fault progression and predicts remaining life based only on valve timing measurements. Simulation experiments demonstrate and validate the approach

On the use of electron-multiplying CCDs for astronomical spectroscopy

Conventional CCD detectors have two major disadvantages: they are slow to read out and they suffer from read noise. These problems combine to make high-speed spectroscopy of faint targets the most demanding of astronomical observations. It is possible to overcome these weaknesses by using electron-multiplying CCDs (EMCCDs). EMCCDs are conventional frame-transfer CCDs, but with an extended serial register containing high-voltage electrodes. An avalanche of secondary electrons is produced as the photon-generated electrons are clocked through this register, resulting in signal amplification that renders the read noise negligible. Using a combination of laboratory measurements with the QUCAM2 EMCCD camera and Monte Carlo modelling, we show that it is possible to significantly increase the signal-to-noise ratio of an observation by using an EMCCD, but only if it is optimised and utilised correctly. We also show that even greater gains are possible through the use of photon counting. We present a recipe for astronomers to follow when setting up a typical EMCCD observation which ensures that maximum signal-to-noise ratio is obtained. We also discuss the benefits that EMCCDs would bring if used with the next generation of extremely large telescopes. Although we mainly consider the spectroscopic use of EMCCDs, our conclusions are equally applicable to imaging.Comment: 18 figures, 3 tables, 18 page

Automatic Detection of Expanding HI Shells Using Artificial Neural Networks

The identification of expanding HI shells is difficult because of their variable morphological characteristics. The detection of HI bubbles on a global scale therefore never has been attempted. In this paper, an automatic detector for expanding HI shells is presented. The detection is based on the more stable dynamical characteristics of expanding shells and is performed in two stages. The first one is the recognition of the dynamical signature of an expanding bubble in the velocity spectra, based on the classification of an artificial neural network. The pixels associated with these recognized spectra are identified on each velocity channel. The second stage consists in looking for concentrations of those pixels that were firstly pointed out, and to decide if they are potential detections by morphological and 21-cm emission variation considerations. Two test bubbles are correctly detected and a potentially new case of shell that is visually very convincing is discovered. About 0.6% of the surveyed pixels are identified as part of a bubble. These may be false detections, but still constitute regions of space with high probability of finding an expanding shell. The subsequent search field is thus significantly reduced. We intend to conduct in the near future a large scale HI shells detection over the Perseus Arm using our detector.Comment: 39 pages, 11 figures, accepted by PAS

A Testbed for Implementing Prognostic Methodologies on Cryogenic Propellant Loading Systems

Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make maintenance-related decisions, thus effectively streamlining operational and mission-level activities. Experimentation on testbeds representative of critical systems is very useful for the maturation of prognostics technology; precise emulation of actual fault conditions on such a testbed further validates these technologies. In this paper we present the development of a pneumatic valve testbed, initial experimental results and progress towards the maturation and validation of component-level prognostic methods in the context of cryogenic refueling operations. The pneumatic valve testbed allows for the injection of time-varying leaks with specified damage progression profiles in order to emulate common valve faults. The pneumatic valve testbed also contains a battery used to power some pneumatic components, enabling the study of the effects of battery degradation on the operation of the valves

High-throughput screening in larval zebrafish identifies novel potent sedative-hypnotics

BACKGROUND: Many general anesthetics were discovered empirically, but primary screens to find new sedative-hypnotics in drug libraries have not used animals, limiting the types of drugs discovered. The authors hypothesized that a sedative-hypnotic screening approach using zebrafish larvae responses to sensory stimuli would perform comparably to standard assays, and efficiently identify new active compounds. METHODS: The authors developed a binary outcome photomotor response assay for zebrafish larvae using a computerized system that tracked individual motions of up to 96 animals simultaneously. The assay was validated against tadpole loss of righting reflexes, using sedative-hypnotics of widely varying potencies that affect various molecular targets. A total of 374 representative compounds from a larger library were screened in zebrafish larvae for hypnotic activity at 10 µM. Molecular mechanisms of hits were explored in anesthetic-sensitive ion channels using electrophysiology, or in zebrafish using a specific reversal agent. RESULTS: Zebrafish larvae assays required far less drug, time, and effort than tadpoles. In validation experiments, zebrafish and tadpole screening for hypnotic activity agreed 100% (n = 11; P = 0.002), and potencies were very similar (Pearson correlation, r > 0.999). Two reversible and potent sedative-hypnotics were discovered in the library subset. CMLD003237 (EC50, ~11 µM) weakly modulated γ-aminobutyric acid type A receptors and inhibited neuronal nicotinic receptors. CMLD006025 (EC50, ~13 µM) inhibited both N-methyl-D-aspartate and neuronal nicotinic receptors. CONCLUSIONS: Photomotor response assays in zebrafish larvae are a mechanism-independent platform for high-throughput screening to identify novel sedative-hypnotics. The variety of chemotypes producing hypnosis is likely much larger than currently known.This work was supported by grants from Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China, and the Chinese Medical Association, Beijing, China (both to Dr. Yang). The Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine of Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, supported this work through a Research Scholars Award and an Innovation Grant (both to Dr. Forman). Contributions to this research from the Boston University Center for Molecular Discovery, Boston, Massachusetts (to Drs. Porco, Brown, Schaus, and Xu, and to Mr. Trilles), were supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (grant No. R24 GM111625). (Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China; Chinese Medical Association, Beijing, China; Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine of Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; R24 GM111625 - National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland)Accepted manuscript2019-09-0

Experimental evidence of a natural parity state in 26^{26}Mg and its impact to the production of neutrons for the s process

We have studied natural parity states in $^{26}$Mg via the $^{22}$Ne($^{6}$Li,d)$^{26}$Mg reaction. Our method significantly improves the energy resolution of previous experiments and, as a result, we report the observation of a natural parity state in $^{26}$Mg. Possible spin-parity assignments are suggested on the basis of published $\gamma$-ray decay experiments. The stellar rate of the $^{22}$Ne($\alpha$,$\gamma$)$^{26}$Mg reaction is reduced and may give rise to an increase in the production of s-process neutrons via the $^{22}$Ne($\alpha$,n)$^{25}$Mg reaction.Comment: Published in PR

GPU Accelerated Prognostics

Prognostic methods enable operators and maintainers to predict the future performance for critical systems. However, these methods can be computationally expensive and may need to be performed each time new information about the system becomes available. In light of these computational requirements, we have investigated the application of graphics processing units (GPUs) as a computational platform for real-time prognostics. Recent advances in GPU technology have reduced cost and increased the computational capability of these highly parallel processing units, making them more attractive for the deployment of prognostic software. We present a survey of model-based prognostic algorithms with considerations for leveraging the parallel architecture of the GPU and a case study of GPU-accelerated battery prognostics with computational performance results