Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: a winning solution to the NIJ "Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge"

We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method, which we developed for the National Institute of Justice’s (NIJ) RealTime Crime Forecasting Challenge (National Institute of Justice, 2017). Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable randomized Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) methods for approximating Gaussian processes with autoregressive smoothing kernels in a regularized supervised learning framework. While the smoothing kernels capture the two main approaches in current use in the field of crime forecasting, kernel density estimation (KDE) and self-exciting point process (SEPP) models, the RKHS component of the model can be understood as an approximation to the popular log-Gaussian Cox Process model. For inference, we discretize the spatiotemporal point pattern and learn a log-intensity function using the Poisson likelihood and highly efficient gradientbased optimization methods. Model hyperparameters including quality of RKHS approximation, spatial and temporal kernel lengthscales, number of autoregressive lags, bandwidths for smoothing kernels, as well as cell shape, size, and rotation, were learned using crossvalidation. Resulting predictions significantly exceeded baseline KDE estimates and SEPP models for sparse events

Analysis and modeling of swelling and erosion behavior for pure HPMC tablet

This work is focused on the transport phenomena which take place during immersion in water of pure hydroxypropylmethylcellulose tablets. The water uptake, the swelling and the erosion during immersion were investigated in drug-free systems, as a preliminary task before to undertake the study of drug-loaded ones. The tablets, obtained by powder compression, were confined between glass slabs to allow water uptake only by lateral surface and then immersed in distilled water at 37 °C, with simultaneous video-recording. By image analysis the normalized light intensity profiles were obtained and taken as a measure of the water mass fraction. The time evolutions of the total tablet mass, of the water mass and of the erosion radius were measured, too. Thus a novel method to measure polymer and water masses during hydration was pointed out. Then, a model consisting in the transient mass balance, accounting for water diffusion, diffusivity change due to hydration, swelling and erosion, was found able to reproduce all experimental data. Even if the model was already used in literature, the novelty of our approach is to compare model predictions with a complete set of experimental data, confirming that the main phenomena were correctly identified and described

Swelling of cellulose derivative (HPMC) matrix systems for drug delivery

The water swellable hydrogels are commonly used in the production of solid pharmaceutical dosage systems for oral administration (matrices). Their use allows to obtain the controlled drug release. The key role is played by the transport phenomena which take place: water up-take, gel swelling and erosion, increase in diffusivity due to hydration. Thus, knowledge of these phenomena is fundamental in designing and realizing the pharmaceutical systems. In this work, tablets made of pure hydrogel, HydroxyPropyl-MethylCellulose (HPMC), were produced and immersed in a thermostatic bath filled with stirred distilled water (37 °C). The water up-take was allowed only by radial direction (from the lateral surface) by confining the tablet between two glass slides. Two distinct methods, an optical technique already described in a previous work, and a gravimetric procedure described here, were applied to measure the water concentration profiles along the radial direction in the tablets. The data obtained were used both to clarify the nature of the transport phenomena involved, and to perform a better tuning of a mathematical model previously proposed. doi:10.1016/j.carbpol.2009.05.00

Family firm internationalization: Past research and an agenda for the future

Although the study of family firm internationalization has generated considerable scholarly attention, existing research has offered varied and at times incompatible findings on how family ownership and management shape internationalization. To improve our understanding of family firm internationalization, we systematically review 220 conceptual and empirical studies published over the past three decades, structuring our comprehensive overview of this field according to seven core international business (IB) themes. We assess the literature and propose directions for future research by developing an integrative framework of family firm internationalization that links IB theory with conceptual perspectives used in the reviewed body of work. We propose a research agenda that advocates a cross-disciplinary, multi-theoretic, and cross-level approach to studying family firm internationalization. We conclude that family firm internationalization research has the potential to contribute valuable insights to IB scholarship by increasing attention to conceptual and methodological issues, including micro-level affective motivations, background social institutions, temporal perspectives, and multi-level analyses

Investigation of Pluronic (c) F127-Water Solutions Phase Transitions by DSC and Dielectric Spectroscopy

The water solutions of the block copolymers PEOn-PPOm-PEOn, known as pluronics, show a complex thermal behavior, since they are liquid at low temperature (5C), and they can give soft gel when heated at body temperature (37C). These properties are of great interest in biomedical applications. To properly design these applications, a prerequisite is the knowledge of the thermodynamics—how much—and of the kinetics—how fast—with which these transformations take place. In this work, solutions of F127 (the copolymer for which n ¼ 100 and m ¼ 65) were studied by varying the concentration and the temperature and analyzing their behavior when heated under several heating rates. The studies were performed by differential scanning calorimetry (DCS) and dielectric spectroscopy. The investigations carried out under equilibrium conditions allowed us to determine the thermodynamics of the phase transitions, whereas the investigations carried out under varying conditions allowed us to quantify the kinetics of the phase transitions. Empirical models were also proposed to describe both the thermodynamics and the kinetics observed

Implementation of a sensorized neonatal head model for gynechological training

During labor it is very important to know the exact position and orientation of the fetal head when descending the birth canal. Indeed, incorrect evaluations may lead to dangerous situations for both the infant and the mother. Usually, gynecologists and midwives rely on their experience to determine the head position and to evaluate the risk level of each delivery. In this context, it is essential to train new physicians and midwives to correctly manage different types of delivery. Here, we present the design and implementation of a realistic sensorized neonatal head that could be used on low-cost birth simulators for training and evaluation of residents and midwifery students

Impact of air pollution on global burden of disease in 2019

Air pollution consisting of ambient air pollution and household air pollution (HAP) threatens health globally. Air pollution aggravates the health of vulnerable people such as infants, children, women, and the elderly as well as people with chronic diseases such as cardiorespiratory illnesses, little social support, and poor access to medical services. This study is aimed to estimate the impact of air pollution on global burden of disease (GBD). We extracted data about mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution from 1990 to 2019. The extracted data were then organized and edited into a usable format using STATA version 15. Furthermore, we also estimated the impacts for three categories based on their socio-demographic index (SDI) as calculated by GBD study. The impacts of air pollution on overall burden of disease by SDI, gender, type of pollution, and type of disease is estimated and their trends over the period of 1990 to 2019 are presented. The attributable burden of ambient air pollution is increasing over the years while attributable burden of HAP is declining over the years, globally. The findings of this study will be useful for evidence-based planning for prevention and control of air pollution and reduction of burden of disease from air pollution at global, regional, and national levels