VOLCANS: an objective, structured and reproducible method for identifying sets of analogue volcanoes

The definition of a suite of analogue volcanoes, or volcanoes that are considered to share enough characteristics as to be considered exchangeable to a certain extent, is becoming a key component of volcanic hazard assessment. This is particularly the case for volcanoes where data are lacking or scarce. Moreover, volcano comparisons have often been based on similarities and differences inferred through expert judgement and not necessarily informed by volcano characteristics from global datasets. These similarities can be based on a range of features, from very simplified (e.g. statrovolcanoes) to very specific (e.g. detailed eruption chronologies), and may be strongly influenced by the personal experience of individuals or teams conducting the analogue analysis. In this work, we present VOLCANS (VOLCano ANalogues Search)—an objective, structured and reproducible method to identify sets of analogue volcanoes from global volcanological databases. Five overarching criteria (tectonic setting, rock geochemistry, volcano morphology, eruption size and eruption style), and a structured combination of them, are used to quantify overall multi-criteria volcano analogy. This innovative method is complementary to expert-derived sets of analogue volcanoes and provides the user with full flexibility to weigh the criteria and identify analogue volcanoes applicable to varied purposes. Some results are illustrated for three volcanoes with diverse features and significant recent and/or ongoing eruptions: Kı̄lauea (USA), Fuego (Guatemala) and Sinabung (Indonesia). The identified analogue volcanoes correspond well with a priori analogue volcanoes derived from expert knowledge. In some cases, single-criterion searches may not be able to isolate a reduced set of analogue volcanoes but any multi-criteria search can provide high degrees of granularity in the sets of analogue volcanoes obtained. Data quality and quantity can be important factors, especially for single-criterion searches and volcanoes with very scarce data (e.g. Sinabung). Nevertheless, the method gives stable results overall across multi-criteria searches of analogue volcanoes. Potential uses of VOLCANS range from quantitative volcanic hazard assessment to promoting fundamental understanding of volcanic processes

3D geological models and their hydrogeological applications : supporting urban development : a case study in Glasgow-Clyde, UK

Urban planners and developers in some parts of the United Kingdom can now access geodata in an easy-to-retrieve and understandable format. 3D attributed geological framework models and associated GIS outputs, developed by the British Geological Survey (BGS), provide a predictive tool for planning site investigations for some of the UK's largest regeneration projects in the Thames and Clyde River catchments. Using the 3D models, planners can get a 3D preview of properties of the subsurface using virtual cross-section and borehole tools in visualisation software, allowing critical decisions to be made before any expensive site investigation takes place, and potentially saving time and money. 3D models can integrate artificial and superficial deposits and bedrock geology, and can be used for recognition of major resources (such as water, thermal and sand and gravel), for example in buried valleys, groundwater modelling and assessing impacts of underground mining. A preliminary groundwater recharge and flow model for a pilot area in Glasgow has been developed using the 3D geological models as a framework. This paper focuses on the River Clyde and the Glasgow conurbation, and the BGS's Clyde Urban Super-Project (CUSP) in particular, which supports major regeneration projects in and around the City of Glasgow in the West of Scotland

Using the 'myVolcano' mobile phone app for citizen science in St. Vincent and the Grenadines : a pilot study

The British Geological Survey (BGS) has been working with Caribbean partners on the role of citizen science in increasing resilience to natural hazards. The work has largely focused on the potential use of the myVolcano smartphone app, which was developed by the BGS following the 2010 Eyafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions in Iceland. During these eruptions the BGS asked the UK public to collect particle samples, subsequently analysing these for ash presence to map the distribution of ash fallout across the UK. These requests led to the development of the myVolcano app, which was designed to capture transboundary and distal observations of volcanic ash and emissions. The observations are made visible to other users via an interactive map built into the app. The map interface has global coverage and the data collection methods (free-text descriptions and photographs) are such that information about any natural hazard, anywhere in the world, can be captured. In 2015, BGS carried out an ESRC-DfID-NERC funded scoping study in collaboration with the University of the West Indies’ Seismic Research Centre (UWI SRC), to test the potential use of the app in environments affected by proximal volcanic hazards. The study focused on St. Vincent and the Grenadines and investigated the potential for capturing a wider variety of observations for use by the public, operational scientists and civil protection. The study, which included a combination of desk study and remote interviews, highlighted the potential for, and challenges of, using such an app for increasing resilience to natural hazards and the need for a follow-up study in St Vincent. In March 2017, a workshop and school activities were held in St. Vincent to collect feedback from potential users of myVolcano, hereafter referred to as the pilot study. Workshop participants came from across government, monitoring agencies, emergency response and telecommunications. As part of the workshop, a multi-hazard scenario was ‘played out’ to stimulate discussions on the usability of the app, data gathering and processing, and participants’ use of existing citizen science applications. Discussions developed around data validation and quality assurance, data sharing and presentation, local management of data by nominated scientists (e.g. to facilitate real-time decision making) and the associated need for a locally appropriate app (i.e. no one size fits all). This last point is particularly significant when considering the utility of an app in several countries – the user interface, at least, requires specific tailoring to the country’s needs. Using this feedback, the BGS Official Development Assistance (ODA) programme is currently funding collaborations with Caribbean partners in order to modify the app to meet the local requirements, including widening the multi-hazard application and enhancing two-way information sharing. Of particular importance is how best to share critical information with those making observations and how to make observations available to decision-makers and monitoring scientists in real-time (e.g. through local management of the app)

A different appetite for sovereignty? Independence movements in subnational island jurisdictions

Local autonomy in a subnational jurisdiction is more likely to be gained, secured or enhanced where there are palpable movements or political parties agitating for independence in these smaller territories. A closer look at the fortunes, operations and dynamics of independence parties from subnational island jurisdictions can offer some interesting insights on the appetite for sovereignty and independence, but also the lack thereof, in the twenty-first century.peer-reviewe

The potential impact of reforms to the essential parameters of the council tax

Council Tax was introduced in Britain in 1993 and represents a unique international property tax. There is a growing belief that it is time to reform the number and structure of council tax bands but such views have a minimal empirical base. This paper sets out to assess the impact on personal and local government finances, and extends the analysis to the role of the tax multipliers linked to each band. The research is based on the experience of a representative sample of local authorities in Scotland. A statistical revaluation for 2000 is estimated for the existing eight band system, and from this base a ten band system is calculated. Financial implications are then simulated for each local authority taking account of central resource equalisation mechanisms. The results indicate that increases in bands will have little impact on the burden of the council tax compared with regular revaluations. Changing the tax multiplier range has the greatest impact on local authority finances and council tax payments