Assessing the climate impacts of Chinese dietary choices using a telecoupled global food trade and local land use framework

Global emissions trajectories developed to meet the 2⁰C temperature target are likely to rely on the widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies and/or the implementation of substantial terrestrial carbon sinks. Such technologies include afforestation, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), but mitigation options for agriculture appear limited. For example, using the Global Calculator tool (http://www.globalcalculator.org/), under a 2⁰C pathway, the ‘forests and other land use’ sector is projected to become a major carbon sink, reaching -15 GtCO2e yr-1 by 2050, compared to fossil emissions of 21 GtCO2e yr-1. At the same time, rates of agricultural emissions remain static at about 6 GtCO2e yr-1, despite increasing demands for crop and livestock production to meet the forecast dietary demands of the growing and increasingly wealthy global population. Emissions in the Global Calculator are sensitive to the assumed global diet, and particularly to the level and type of meat consumption, which in turn drive global land use patterns and agricultural emissions. Here we assess the potential to use a modified down-scaled Global Calculator methodology embedded within the telecoupled global food trade framework, to estimate the agricultural emissions and terrestrial carbon stock impacts in China and Brazil, arising from a plausible range of dietary choices in China. These dietary choices are linked via telecoupling mechanisms to Brazilian crop production (e.g. Brazilian soy for Chinese animal feed provision) and drive land and global market dynamics. ‘Spill-over’ impacts will also be assessed using the EU and Malawi as case studies

Local winter deer density: Effects of forest structure and snow in a managed forest landscape

*Background/Questions/Methods*
White-tailed deer (_Odocoileus virginianus_) are a ‘keystone herbivore’ with the potential to cause tree regeneration failure and greatly affect vegetation dynamics, stand structure and ecological function of forests across eastern North America. In northern mixed conifer-hardwood forests, local winter-time deer populations are dependent on habitat characterized by patterns of forest cover that provide shelter from snow and cold temperatures (lowland conifer stands) in close proximity to winter food (deciduous hardwood stands). Stand structure may also influence winter spatial deer distribution. Consequently, modification of forest cover patterns and stand structure by timber harvesting will affect local spatial deer distributions, with potential ecological and economic consequences. Here, we ask if forest cover pattern and stand structure, and their interactions with snow depth, can explain winter deer density in the managed forests of the central Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. For each local winter deer density estimate (from fecal pellet counts) we calculate stand-level characteristics for surrounding ‘landscapes of influence’ of radius 200 m. For these data, and modeled snow depth estimates, we use multivariate techniques to produce predictive models and to identify the most important factors driving local deer densities across our 400,000 ha study area. 

*Results/Conclusions*
Distance to the nearest conifer stand consistently explains the most variance in univariate regression models. Deer densities are highest near lowland conifer stands in areas where mean hardwood tree diameter-at-breast-height is low. Multiple regression models including these factors explain 22% of variance in deer density and have up to a 65% chance of correctly ranking a site’s deer density (relative to other sites within our study area). We use model ensembles to produce maps of estimated deer density (and associated uncertainty) for a subset of our study area and show how managers might use these maps to aid co-management of deer and forest regeneration. Our results highlight the importance of local and regional factors (forest cover-type pattern, stand structure, climate) on winter white-tailed deer density in managed hardwood-conifer forests. Use of these results, and the simulation model being developed, will help identify management practices that can decrease deer impacts and ensure the ecological and economic sustainability of forests in which deer browse is proving problematic for tree regeneration.
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Shopping districts and centres, markets, neighbourhoods, public squares, and urban gardens: reflecting

The Study Trip to Berlin was the first of its kind to be organised by the Institute of Place Management. Sixteen delegates from eight countries (Australia, Brazil, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Singapore and UK) met in Berlin to participate in an intensive programme of lectures, visits and discussions. The idea behind this format, one of the educational courses of the IPM, is to offer new insights, but also to facilitate knowledge exchange between members. It is one of the guiding principles of the Institute that we investigate challenges and provide answers in the specificity of place and support people in places. Consequently, a series of visits were arranged to explore not just the management of different areas of Berlin, but also different types and approaches to place management

The perception and management of risk in UK office property development

Risk is an ever-present aspect of business, and risk taking is necessary for profit and economic progress. Speculative property development is popularly perceived as a 'risky business' yet, like other entrepreneurs, developers have opportunities to manage the risks they face; techniques include phasing and joint ventures. The associated areas of investment portfolio risk, development risk analysis and construction risk management have all been addressed by research. This article presents new knowledge about how developers perceive risks and the means they subsequently adopt to manage them. The developers of office projects across the UK were sent questionnaires by post. Respondents were asked about their perceptions of risks at the first appraisal stage and currently and about the risk management techniques that they had adopted. In-depth interviews with a selection of respondents were then used to discuss and augment the findings. Developers were most concerned about market-based risks at both stages. Concern about production-orientated risks was lower and fell significantly between the two stages. A fixed price contract was the most common risk management technique. Risk management techniques were used more often outside London and the South East. Developer type affects both the perception and management of risk. While developers do manage risk, decisions are made on the basis of professional and business experience. These findings should help development companies manage risk in a more objective and analytical way

Evaluating case studies of community-oriented integrated care.

This paper summarises a ten-year conversation within London Journal of Primary Care about the nature of community-oriented integrated care (COIC) and how to develop and evaluate it. COIC means integration of efforts for combined disease-treatment and health-enhancement at local, community level. COIC is similar to the World Health Organisation concept of a Community-Based Coordinating Hub - both require a local geographic area where different organisations align their activities for whole system integration and develop local communities for health. COIC is a necessary part of an integrated system for health and care because it enables multiple insights into 'wicked problems', and multiple services to integrate their activities for people with complex conditions, at the same time helping everyone to collaborate for the health of the local population. The conversation concludes seven aspects of COIC that warrant further attention