Measurement, Dynamics, and Implications of Heterogeneous Beliefs in Financial Markets

__Abstract__ This dissertation is part of a growing research field in which the heterogeneity of economic actors is incorporated. It bundles four studies that consider the m

Two-year neurodevelopmental outcome in children born extremely preterm:the EPI-DAF study

OBJECTIVE: In 2010, the Dutch practice regarding initiation of active treatment in extremely preterm infants was lowered from 25 completed weeks' to 24 completed weeks' gestation. The nationwide Extremely Preterm Infants - Dutch Analysis on Follow-up Study was set up to provide up-to-date data on neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years' corrected age (CA) after this guideline change. Design: National cohort study. PATIENTS: All live born infants between 240/7 weeks' and 266/7 weeks' gestational age who were 2 years' CA in 2018-2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Impairment at 2 years' CA, based on cognitive score (Bayley-III-NL), neurological examination and neurosensory function. RESULTS: 651 of 991 live born infants (66%) survived to 2 years' CA, with data available for 554 (85%). Overall, 62% had no impairment, 29% mild impairment and 9% moderate-to-severe impairment (further defined as neurodevelopmental impairment, NDI). The percentage of survivors with NDI was comparable for infants born at 24 weeks', 25 weeks' and 26 weeks' gestation. After multivariable analysis, severe brain injury and low maternal education were associated with higher odds on NDI. NDI-free survival was 48%, 67% and 75% in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU)-admitted infants at 24, 25 and 26 weeks' gestation, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lowering the threshold has not been accompanied by a large increase in moderate-to-severely impaired infants. Among live-born and NICU-admitted infants, an increase in NDI-free survival was observed from 24 weeks' to 26 weeks' gestation. This description of a national cohort with high follow-up rates gives an accurate description of the range of outcomes that may occur after extremely preterm birth

The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30

© 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. By testing a simple asset pricing model of heterogeneous agents to characterize the power-law behavior of the DAX 30 from 1975 to 2007, we provide supporting evidence on empirical findings that investors and fund managers use combinations of fixed and switching strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis when making investment decisions. A mechanism analysis based on the calibrated model provides a behavioral insight into the explanatory power of rational switching behavior of investors on the volatility clustering and long range dependence in return volatility

Automatic and Deliberate Affective Associations with Sexual Stimuli in Women with Superficial Dyspareunia

Current views suggest that in women with superficial dyspareunia the prospect of penile–vaginal intercourse automatically activates fear-related associations. The automatic activation of negative associations is assumed to interfere with the development of sexual arousal. In turn, this may further aggravate the dyspareunia-related complaints. To assess whether automatic negative associations are involved in this sexual pain disorder, women with superficial dyspareunia (n = 35) and a control group (n = 35) completed a modified pictorial Affective Simon Task (AST). Questioning the role of dysfunctional automatic associations in superficial dyspareunia, the AST indicated that symptomatic women displayed relatively positive rather than negative automatic associations with sexual stimuli. At the self-report level, however, affective associations with sex cues were significantly more negative for women with dyspareunia than for controls. This discrepancy between “reflective” and “reflexive” affective associations with sexual stimuli in women with dyspareunia points to the relevance of conscious appraisal and deliberate rather than automatic processes in the onset and maintenance of dyspareunia

Developmental expression of orphan g protein-coupled receptor 50 in the mouse brain

[Image: see text] Mental disorders have a complex etiology resulting from interactions between multiple genetic risk factors and stressful life events. Orphan G protein-coupled receptor 50 (GPR50) has been identified as a genetic risk factor for bipolar disorder and major depression in women, and there is additional genetic and functional evidence linking GPR50 to neurite outgrowth, lipid metabolism, and adaptive thermogenesis and torpor. However, in the absence of a ligand, a specific function has not been identified. Adult GPR50 expression has previously been reported in brain regions controlling the HPA axis, but its developmental expression is unknown. In this study, we performed extensive expression analysis of GPR50 and three protein interactors using rt-PCR and immunohistochemistry in the developing and adult mouse brain. Gpr50 is expressed at embryonic day 13 (E13), peaks at E18, and is predominantly expressed by neurons. Additionally we identified novel regions of Gpr50 expression, including brain stem nuclei involved in neurotransmitter signaling: the locus coeruleus, substantia nigra, and raphe nuclei, as well as nuclei involved in metabolic homeostasis. Gpr50 colocalizes with yeast-two-hybrid interactors Nogo-A, Abca2, and Cdh8 in the hypothalamus, amygdala, cortex, and selected brain stem nuclei at E18 and in the adult. With this study, we identify a link between GPR50 and neurotransmitter signaling and strengthen a likely role in stress response and energy homeostasis

The ETS Family Member TEL Binds to Nuclear Receptors RAR and RXR and Represses Gene Activation

Retinoic acid receptor (RAR) signaling is important for regulating transcriptional activity of genes involved in growth, differentiation, metabolism and reproduction. Defects in RAR signaling have been implicated in cancer. TEL, a member of the ETS family of transcription factors, is a DNA-binding transcriptional repressor. Here, we identify TEL as a transcriptional repressor of RAR signaling by its direct binding to both RAR and its dimerisation partner, the retinoid x receptor (RXR) in a ligand-independent fashion. TEL is found in two isoforms, created by the use of an alternative startcodon at amino acid 43. Although both isoforms bind to RAR and RXR in vitro and in vivo, the shorter form of TEL represses RAR signaling much more efficiently. Binding studies revealed that TEL binds closely to the DNA binding domain of RAR and that both Helix Loop Helix (HLH) and DNA binding domains of TEL are mandatory for interaction. We have shown that repression by TEL does not involve recruitment of histone deacetylases and suggest that polycomb group proteins participate in the process

Estimation of Financial Agent-Based Models with Simulated Maximum Likelihood

This paper proposes a general computational framework for empirical estimation of financial agent based models, for which criterion functions do not have known analytical form. For this purpose, we adapt a nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood estimation based on kernel methods. Employing one of the most widely analysed heterogeneous agent models in the literature developed by Brock and Hommes (1998), we extensively test properties of the proposed estimator and its ability to recover parameters consistently and efficiently using simulations. Key empirical findings point us to the statistical insignificance of the switching coefficient but markedly significant belief parameters defining heterogeneous trading regimes with superiority of trend-following over contrarian strategies. In addition, we document slight proportional dominance of fundamentalists over trend following chartists in main world markets