Discrete event simulation model for planning Level 2 “step-down” bed needs using NEMS

In highly congested hospitals it may be common for patients to overstay at Intensive Care Units (ICU) due to blockages and imbalances in capacity. This is inadequate clinically, as patients occupy a service they no longer need; operationally, as it disrupts flow from upstream units; and financially as ICU beds are more expensive than ward beds. Step-down beds, also known as Level 2 beds, have become an increasingly popular and less expensive alternative to ICU beds to deal with this issue. We developed a discrete event simulation model that estimates Level 2 bed needs for a large university hospital. The model innovates by simulating the entirety of the hospital’s inpatient flow and most importantly, the ICU’s daily stochastic flows based on a nursing workload scoring metrics called “Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score” (NEMS). Using data from a large academic hospital, the model shows the benefits of Level 2 beds in improving both patient flow and costs

S4HARA: System for HIV/AIDS resource allocation

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Emergency department use following incentives to provide after-hours primary care: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Access to primary care outside of regular working hours is limited in many countries. This study investigates the relation between the after-hours premium, an incentive for primary care physicians to provide services after hours, and less-urgent visits to the emergency department in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of a random sample of Ontario residents from April 2002 to March 2006, and a subcohort of patients followed from April 2005 to March 2016. We linked patient and primary care physician data with emergency department visit data. We used fixed-effects regression models to analyze the association between the introduction of the after-hours premium, as well as subsequent increases in the value of the premium, and the number of monthly emergency department visits. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 586 534 patients between 2002 and 2006, and 201 594 patients from 2005 to 2016. After controlling for patient and physician characteristics, seasonality and time-invariant patient confounding factors, introduction of the after-hours premium was associated with a reduction of 1.26 less-urgent visits to the emergency department per 1000 patients per month (95% confidence interval -1.48 to -1.04). Most of this reduction was observed in after-hours visits. Sensitivity analysis showed that the monthly reduction in less-urgent visits to the emergency department was in the range of -1.24 to -1.16 per 1000 patients. Subsequent increases in the after-hours premium were associated with a small reduction in less-urgent visits to the emergency department. INTERPRETATION: Ontario\u27s experience suggests that incentivizing physicians to improve access to after-hours primary care reduces some less-urgent visits to the emergency department. Other jurisdictions may consider incentives to limit less-urgent visits to the emergency department

The Potential Clinical and Economic Value of Primary Tumour Identification in Metastatic Cancer of Unknown Primary Tumour: A Population-Based Retrospective Matched Cohort Study.

PurposeSeveral genomic tests have recently been developed to identify the primary tumour in cancer of unknown primary tumour (CUP). However, the value of identifying the primary tumour in clinical practice for CUP patients remains questionable and difficult to prove in randomized trials.ObjectiveWe aimed to assess the clinical and economic value of primary tumour identification in CUP using a retrospective matched cohort study.MethodsWe used the Manitoba Cancer Registry to identify all patients initially diagnosed with metastatic cancer between 2002 and 2011. We defined patients as having CUP if their primary tumour was found 6 months or more after initial diagnosis or never found during the course of disease. Otherwise, we considered patients to have metastatic cancer from a known primary tumour (CKP). We linked all patients with Manitoba Health databases to estimate their direct healthcare costs using a phase-of-care approach. We used the propensity score matching technique to match each CUP patient with a CKP patient on clinicopathologic characteristics. We compared treatment patterns, overall survival (OS) and phase-specific healthcare costs between the two patient groups and assessed association with OS using Cox regression adjustment.ResultsOf 5839 patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer, 395 had CUP (6.8%); 1:1 matching created a matched group of 395 CKP patients. CUP patients were less likely to receive surgery, radiation, hormonal and targeted therapy and more likely to receive cytotoxic empiric chemotherapeutic agents. Having CUP was associated with reduced OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31; 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.58), but this lost statistical significance with adjustment for treatment differences. CUP patients had a significant increase in the mean net cost of initial diagnostic workup before diagnosis and a significant reduction in the mean net cost of continuing cancer care.ConclusionIdentifying the primary tumour in CUP patients might enable the use of more effective therapies, improve OS and allow more efficient allocation of healthcare resources

The impact of improved access to after-hours primary care on emergency department and primary care utilization: A systematic review.

Access to after-hours primary care is problematic in many developed countries, leading patients to instead visit the emergency department for non-urgent conditions. However, emergency department utilization for conditions treatable in primary care settings may contribute to emergency department overcrowding and increased health system costs. This systematic review examines the impact of various initiatives by developed countries to improve access to after-hours primary care on emergency department and primary care utilization. We performed a systematic review on the impact of improved access to after-hours primary and searched CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Scopus. We identified 20 studies that examined the impact of improved access to after-hours primary care on ED utilization and 6 studies that examined the impact on primary care utilization. Improved access to after-hours primary care was associated with increased primary care utilization, but had a mixed effect on emergency department utilization, with limited evidence of a reduction in non-urgent and semi-urgent emergency department visits. Although our review suggests that improved access to after-hours primary care may limit emergency department utilization by shifting patient care from the emergency department back to primary care, rigorous research in a given institutional context is required before introducing any initiative to improve access to after-hours primary care

Trends in obesity and multimorbidity in Canada.

Very few studies have examined trends in multimorbidity over time and even fewer have examined trends over time across different body mass index (BMI) groups. Given a general decline in death rates but increased cardiovascular risk factors among individuals with obesity, the trend in the association between obesity and multimorbidity is hypothesized to be increasing over time. The data for our study came from the 1996-97 National Population Health Survey and the 2005 and 2012-13 Canadian Community Health Surveys (N = 277,366 across all 3 surveys). We examined trends in the association between BMI groups and multimorbidity using a logistic regression model. We also investigated trends in the prevalence of specific chronic conditions, pairs of chronic conditions and different levels of multimorbidity across BMI groups. We found significantly greater levels of multimorbidity in 2005 (OR = 1.42; p \u3c 0.001) and 2012-13 (OR = 1.58; p \u3c 0.001) relative to 1996-97. Changes in multimorbidity levels were much greater among individuals with class II/III (OR = 1.48; p = 0.005) and class I obesity (OR = 1.38; p = 0.001) in 2012-13 relative to 1996-97. Much of the increase in multimorbidity among individuals living with obesity was due to increases in 3+ chronic conditions and conditions in combination with hypertension, and the greatest increase was found among seniors living with obesity. Our results highlight the need for interventions aimed at preventing obesity and the prevention of chronic conditions among individuals with obesity, especially among seniors

Viability of wall-embedded tag antenna for ultra-wideband real-time suitcase localisation

WOS:000335152600007 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science)Viability of a conformal single-layer monopole antenna is studied for a wall-embedded tag in an ultra-wideband (UWB) suitcase localisation application based on impulse radio UWB. The performance of the embedded antenna is simulated and confirmed experimentally in real-time localisation (RTL) experiments carried out in a cluttered laboratory environment. Evaluation in the main planes shows average suitcase positioning error around 8 cm for worst-case conditions. RTL tests are made when the suitcase is empty, when it is filled with common travelling items and also when it is shadowed by a second suitcase. A vector network analyser-based measurement set-up is used for target localisation error evaluation. Additionally, the same tests are repeated using portable commercial time-domain transceivers with similar results

Predicting Joint Replacement Waiting Times

Currently, the median waiting time for total hip and knee replacement in Ontario is greater than 6 months. Waiting longer than 6 months is not recommended and may result in lower post-operative benefits. We developed a simulation model to estimate the proportion of patients who would receive surgery within the recommended waiting time for surgery over a 10-year period considering a wide range of demand projections and varying the number of available surgeries. Using an estimate that demand will grow by approximately 8.7% each year for 10 years, we determined that increasing available supply by 10% each year was unable to maintain the status quo for 10 years. Reducing waiting times within 10 years required that the annual supply of surgeries increased by 12% or greater. Allocating surgeries across regions in proportion to each region’s waiting time resulted in a more efficient distribution of surgeries and a greater reduction in waiting times in the long-term compared to allocation strategies based only on the region’s population size

Stability of 1-D Excitons in Carbon Nanotubes under High Laser Excitations

Through ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopy with intense pump pulses and a wide continuum probe, we show that interband exciton peaks in single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) are extremely stable under high laser excitations. Estimates of the initial densities of excitons from the excitation conditions, combined with recent theoretical calculations of exciton Bohr radii for SWNTs, suggest that their positions do not change at all even near the Mott density. In addition, we found that the presence of lowest-subband excitons broadens all absorption peaks, including those in the second-subband range, which provides a consistent explanation for the complex spectral dependence of pump-probe signals reported for SWNTs.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure